Barcelona (2-1-1) and Chelsea (2-1-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Stamford Bridge in London, England.
Chelsea is favored at a +125 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-105o / -125u) goals.
Let's get into my Barcelona vs. Chelsea prediction.
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Prediction
Picks: Barcelona ML & Over 3.5 Goals
My Barcelona vs. Chelsea best bet is a parlay backing Barcelona to win the game outright and over 3.5 total goals scored.
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Odds
| Barcelona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -165 | 3.5 -105o / -125u | +175 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +115 | 3.5 -105o / -125u | +125 |
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Barcelona ML
Leg 2: Over 3.5 Goals
Parlay Odds: +425 via DraftKings
This looks set to be one of the more enthralling fixtures on matchday five of the Champions League. Both teams are capable of lifting the trophy, but we are siding with the away side, who is the slight underdog, as part of our Chelsea vs Barcelona predictions.
Hansi Flick’s Barcelona’s recent record in the competition is impressive. Since the start of last season, the Blaugrana have played 18 Champions League matches, winning 11 and losing just three. During that impressive run, Barça has scored 3.06 goals per game in this competition; no team has averaged more (excluding qualifying matches).
The return of Robert Lewandowski also bolsters the visitors’ attack. The Polish striker looks back to his best after a period on the sidelines due to injury. Lewandowski is one of just three players who have scored over 100 goals in the Champions League, and he can be the difference-maker in this game.
Barcelona has already won in England during the league phase. Flick’s team ran out 2-1 victors at St. James’s Park. The trip to Stamford Bridge should prove to be another difficult challenge, but it is one that the visitors are up to.
Chelsea has won two, drawn one, and lost one in the Champions League thus far.
The defeat came against another of the main contenders, Bayern Munich. The Bavarians were credited with creating three more big chances than the Blues in that 3-1 win. While Chelsea will have home advantage this time around, the Barcelona attack should also enjoy plenty of success in this one.
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Barcelona | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 37.4% | 22.9% | 39.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Barcelona | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | 3.40 | 1.73 |
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
Neither Chelsea nor Barcelona has impressed in European competition this season. Despite achieving substantial success domestically, both teams have struggled defensively.
Remarkably, no team in both La Liga and the Premier League top five has conceded more goals than Chelsea and Barcelona. Chelsea has let in 11 goals in the Premier League, more than any team in the top six, while Barcelona has conceded 15 goals in La Liga, surpassing any team in the top five.
The underlying metrics in the Champions League present an even more troubling scenario. Over the course of four matches, Chelsea has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game, whereas Barcelona has allowed 1.8 goals per match.
Both teams enter this match following unexpected draws in their previous outings. Barcelona was held by Club Brugge, while Chelsea drew 2-2 against Qarabag. With a pressing need for victory, both teams are likely to adopt an aggressive approach, which may further expose their defensive weaknesses.
Lastly, according to our system projection, we can expect 3.40 goals in this match. Chelsea is expected to contribute 1.73 goals, and Barcelona 1.67. While expectations have slightly affected the odds, we see significant value in backing over 3.5 goals given all factors at play.
Picks: Barcelona ML & Over 3.5 Goals (+425 — DraftKings)
Barcelona vs. Chelsea Projected Starting Lineups
Barcelona
Szczesny; Eric, Araujo, Cubarsí, Baldé; Fermín, De Jong, Olmo; Yamal, Lewandowski, Rashford
Chelsea
Sánchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernández; Neto, João Pedro, Garnacho; Delap.
