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2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Betting Picks, Exact Dog Predictions: Slow Year for Chestnut?

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Betting Picks, Exact Dog Predictions: Slow Year for Chestnut? article feature image

Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Chestnut

  • The 2021 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will take place on Sunday, July 4, and Joey Chestnut is a massive favorite to win again.
  • Chestnut set another record with 75 hot dogs last year, but our staff likes him to go under that total this year.
  • Get updated Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, our favorite picks and exact hot dogs eaten predictions below.

2021 Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Eater Odds Probability
Joey Chestnut -3335 90.66%
Anyone Else +900 9.34%

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday night, and with the juice removed.

You can’t bet on everything in the new United States sports betting market. State regulations prohibit wagering on many novel events, unlike many offshore websites that aren’t regulated and can offer just about anything.

But the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is an exception to that rule, in a few states at least.

DraftKings, BetMGM and PointsBet have posted odds on Chestnut vs. the field, total hot dogs eaten, matchups between other competitors and more. Not every book is offering the contest in every state — DraftKings has it in New Jersey, for example, but PointsBet does not. Limits are $100 at DraftKings and the bets are listed under “novelty” instead of a specific sport.

The New Jersey Department of Gaming Enforcement originally did not allow operators to post odds in 2019, even after Major League Eating lobbied for it.

In 2020, those three states approved it for DK. And DraftKings, thanks to its partnership with Major League Eating, became the “market leader” in competitive eating betting.

2021 Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks

Well, you know now you can bet on the Hot Dog Eating Contest in some states. So what should you bet?

Chestnut is such a big favorite that it’s not going to be worth laying about $335 to win $10 on him.

So our Matt Mitchell and Darren Rovell broke down several different bet types, and arrived at their favorite — under 73.5 hot dogs at plus money at DraftKings.

That under has actually dropped from +165 to +125 over the last few days, with the over at -165. PointsBet is offering under 74.5 at -105, as well, if you want the extra dog.

Mitchell expects Chestnut to take a slight step back this year after setting another record last year with 75 hot dogs. Rovell argues that Chestnut doesn’t need to smash records in the same way because he’s so far ahead of the field, even at 37-years-old.

Mitchell also likes the “exact hot dogs eaten” props of 70-72 or 73-74 at plus-money, if you can find them.

Hot Dog Eating Contest Props

DraftKings has a few props, including total number of hot dogs eaten, and two matchup bets for other competitors.

Joey Chestnut Hot Dogs Eaten

Total Odds Probability
Over 73.5 -200 62.5%
Under 73.5 +165 37.5%

Hot Dog Eating Contest Past Winners & Total Dogs Eaten

Chestnut has won every year but one since 2007, and he has increased his output along the way. He’s topped 70 dogs in 10 minutes in each of the last five contests, including a record 75 in 2020.

But last year, he closed extremely strong, adding four hot dogs after the buzzer because any hot dogs that a contestant starts eating before the buzzer are counted as long as they stay down.

Year Winner Hot Dogs
2020 Joey Chestnut 75
2019 Joey Chestnut 71
2018 Joey Chestnut 74
2017 Joey Chestnut 72
2016 Joey Chestnut 70
2015 Matt Stonie 62
2014 Joey Chestnut 61
2013 Joey Chestnut 69
2012 Joey Chestnut 68
2011 Joey Chestnut 62
2010 Joey Chestnut 54
2009 Joey Chestnut 68
2008 Joey Chestnut 59
2007 Joey Chestnut 66
2006 Takeru Kobayashi 53.75
2005 Takeru Kobayashi 49
2004 Takeru Kobayashi 53.5
2003 Takeru Kobayashi 44.5
2002 Takeru Kobayashi 50.5
2001 Takeru Kobayashi 50
2000 Kazutoyo Arai 25
1999 Steve Keiner 21.5
1998 Hirofumi Nakajima 19
1997 Hirofumi Nakajima 24.5

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