Somewhere in Sony's marketing offices, someone should be celebrating. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just knocked Avengers: Endgame off a pedestal that had stood for seven years, grabbing the record for the single biggest opening weekend in movie history. Polymarket's "biggest opening weekend of 2026" prediction market is asking a simple question: does that record survive the rest of the year? Right now, the market leans toward YES, though it's far from a sure thing.
Spider-Man Already Set An Impossible Bar
Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, Brand New Day picks up right where Spider-Man: No Way Home left off. The entire world has forgotten Peter Parker exists, so Tom Holland's web-slinger is fighting crime alone, without Zendaya's MJ or Jacob Batalon's Ned remembering who he is, all while dealing with powers that are quietly changing on him. Mark Ruffalo's Hulk shows up too. Audiences didn't just show up, they broke records doing it, and reviews landed strong enough to keep word of mouth working in the film's favor.
Why it holds the current lead:
- It already delivered the number: the largest domestic opening weekend ever with $360 million. The record is real and it's in the books.
Why it's not a lock:
- Nothing this big has ever opened twice in the same year, but 2026 is trying and, in general, it's a good year for the movies at the box-office.
- Marvel still has a much longer-simmering release on the calendar, one built specifically to feel like an event.
Avengers: Doomsday Brings Marvel's Biggest Roster Yet
Joe and Anthony Russo, the same directors behind Endgame, return for Avengers: Doomsday on December 18. Robert Downey Jr. is back in the Marvel universe, this time playing the villain Doctor Doom, facing a combined roster that pulls heroes from the Avengers, the Fantastic Four, Wakanda and the X-Men, including Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, Anthony Mackie, Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Pedro Pascal and Vanessa Kirby. It's the crossover Marvel has been building toward since Endgame closed that chapter of the MCU.
In its favor:
- The Russo brothers already hold the previous opening weekend record with Endgame.
- Years of anticipation tend to translate into massive first weekends for this specific franchise.
Working against it:
- December 18 isn't Doomsday's alone. A very different kind of blockbuster shares that date: Dune: Part Three.
- Beating $360 million means topping a number nobody, including Endgame, ever reached before.
Dune Might Decide Everything Without Winning Itself
Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Three, adapting the novel Dune Messiah, also opens December 18, the same day as Doomsday. Timothée Chalamet returns as Emperor Paul Atreides years into a reign built on holy war, joined by Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Robert Pattinson, Javier Bardem and Rebecca Ferguson. Nobody expects Dune to out-open a superhero crossover, but it doesn't need to win to matter.
Why it could still tip the scales:
- It locked up exclusive IMAX access across the U.S. for opening weekend, so Doomsday won't get a single domestic IMAX screen while both movies are still new in theaters.
- Villeneuve's trilogy has an unusually loyal audience for a non-superhero blockbuster, one that shows up in real numbers.
Why it's not a contender for the crown itself:
- Even Dune's best openings never approached superhero-movie territory.
- The market gives it essentially no shot at topping the chart on its own, a sign of how different its ceiling is.
Our Take: The Record Probably Stays in Queens
Here's the reasoning: Avengers: Doomsday doesn't get December 18 to itself. Dune isn't chasing the same crowd as the Avengers, but a well-reviewed finale to one of the decade's most acclaimed franchises can still pull moviegoers, screens and headlines away from a crowded superhero weekend. That's enough friction to keep Doomsday from clearing a bar as high as $360 million, even with the biggest roster Marvel has ever assembled.
Our take: Spider-Man keeps the crown, even if it ends up close.
So the champagne stays on ice in Sony's offices, for now. Spider-Man set a number nobody touched in seven years, and it might take more than one movie sharing a release date to knock it down again.
