Our spider-sense is tingling: there's another Polymarket contract on Spider-Man: Brand New Day nearby.
Two Polymarket contracts are tracking Spider-Man: Brand New Day right now, and they're not really asking the same question.
The opening weekend market is about three days in theaters. This one is about the full calendar year, domestic box office only, resolving December 31. Stretched over that many months, the race looks a lot less competitive.
What "Highest Grossing Movie" Actually Means Here
This market only counts money made at U.S. and Canadian theaters through year's end, so an entire theatrical run matters, not just a debut.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the heavy favorite by a wide margin, Avengers: Doomsday sits a distant second, and Dune: Messiah barely registers, right alongside every other movie that's opened in 2026.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is Already Outrunning The Whole Year
Brand New Day opened July 31 and needed only four days to cross $400 million domestically, faster than any movie ever has. A week in, its domestic total sits near $449 million, putting it within striking distance of Toy Story 5's $463 million, a number Toy Story 5 needed since June to build. Brand New Day still has months of ticket sales ahead of it before Doomsday even opens.
Avengers: Doomsday's Math Problem
Doomsday opens December 18, giving it thirteen days to build a domestic total before this market closes. That's an unusually short runway for a full-year race.
Avengers: Endgame, the last Marvel crossover on this scale, took close to five months to reach its final domestic number of $858 million.
Doomsday doesn't get five months. It gets less than two weeks, and it'll spend that stretch without domestic IMAX screens, since Dune: Part Three has those locked up for its own opening weekend the same day.
The Rest of 2026's Hits Don't Have A Path Either
None of this year's other big earners have much new ground left to cover:
- The Odyssey: crossed $400 million domestically after roughly two and a half weeks, and its weekly grosses are already sliding.
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: settled in near $430 million domestically after months in theaters.
- Michael: settled in near $372 million domestically after a similarly long run.
- Project Hail Mary: settled in near $345 million domestically since its March opening.
- Obsession: an indie horror sleeper that's climbed to roughly $263 million domestically on a budget under $1 million.
Brand New Day passed most of those totals within a single week.
Our Take: This One's Less Close Than It Looks
We already leaned toward Spider-Man in the opening weekend market, and this one tilts even further in its favor. An opening weekend is decided in three days. A full-year total rewards a five-month head start that nothing else in 2026 has.
For Doomsday to catch up, it would need a historic debut, hold close to Endgame's legendary week-to-week numbers, and ideally a Dune: Part Three that stumbles with critics… a big if, since Villeneuve's trilogy has earned raves at every stage and strong reviews are the more likely outcome for Part Three too.
Even with all of that going right, Doomsday still has to squeeze a full catch-up run into thirteen days, and that's the part that's hard to get around.
So while one Polymarket contract is about a single weekend, the other is really asking whether anything can out-earn five months with a two-week sprint. Spider-Man already has the head start nobody else in 2026 got.
