The television industry will celebrate its biggest night on Sunday, September 14, with the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards.
Severance (Apple TV+) leads the nominations in the Drama Series category, followed by The Penguin (HBO Max) and The Studio (Apple TV+). Other notable contenders include The White Lotus (HBO), The Last of Us (HBO Max), Hacks (HBO Max), and Andor (Disney+).
This article breaks down the top nominees and odds for the marquee categories at the 77th Emmy Awards, including Drama Series, Comedy Series, Lead Actress, and Lead Actor.
The 77th Emmy Awards will air live on Sunday, September 14, at 8 p.m. ET from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. The ceremony will be broadcast on CBS and streamed on Paramount+, with comedian Nate Bargatze serving as host.
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2025 Emmy Awards Odds, Favorites
Outstanding Drama Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Severance (Apple TV+) | -194 | 66% |
| The Pitt (HBO Max) | +203 | 33% |
| Andor (Disney+) | — | Less than 1% |
| The Last of Us (HBO) | — | Less than 1% |
| The White Lotus (HBO) | — | Less than 1% |
| Slow Horses (Apple TV+) | — | Less than 1% |
| The Diplomat (Netflix) | — | Less than 1% |
| Paradise (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
Although there are eight nominees, the award seems likely to be decided between just two. The clear favorite is Severance, the science fiction psychological thriller that already has two seasons and boasts none other than Ben Stiller as executive producer.
The Pitt will try to put up a fight. The medical drama brings out the best of a genre famously defined by ER and adds a real-time twist, à la 24, with each episode of the season covering roughly one hour of a work shift at a fictional medical center in Pittsburgh.
Outstanding Comedy Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Studio (Apple TV+) | -1333 | 93% |
| Hacks (HBO Max) | +1566 | 6% |
| Abbott Elementary (ABC) | — | Less than 1% |
| The Bear (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
| Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
| Shrinking (Apple TV+) | — | Less than 1% |
| Nobody Wants This (Netflix) | — | Less than 1% |
| What We Do in the Shadows (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
Everything points to The Studio taking home the trophy. The comedy, created by and starring Seth Rogen, has received rave reviews for its performances, direction, and storyline, which satirizes the Hollywood film industry.
Farther behind in the odds is Hacks. Starring Jean Smart as a veteran stand-up comedian who needs to reinvent herself, the series follows her journey through a professional partnership with her young comedy writer, played by Hannah Einbinder.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Wyle – The Pitt (HBO Max) | -425 | 81% |
| Adam Scott – Severance (Apple TV+) | +614 | 14% |
| Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us (HBO Max) | +2400 | 4% |
| Gary Oldman – Slow Horses (Apple TV+) | — | Less than 1% |
| Sterling K Brown – Paradise (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
Gary Oldman may be one of the greatest portrayals of villains in modern cinema, but this time he has fallen behind in the race. Leading the pack is Noah Wyle, who previously shined as John Carter in ER and now impresses again in a medical role as Michael “Robby” Robinavitch in The Pitt.
Adam Scott appears as the second favorite, praised for his role as one of the severed workers at Lumon Industries (and let’s not forget his unforgettable portrayal of auditor Ben Wyatt in Parks and Recreation!). Further back is Pedro Pascal, the face of The Last of Us, the franchise that transformed the award-winning video game into a critically acclaimed TV series.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Bates – Matlock (CBS) | -316 | 76% |
| Britt Lower – Severance (Apple TV+) | +455 | 14% |
| Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us (HBO Max) | +2400 | 4% |
| Keri Russell – The Diplomat (Netflix) | — | Less than 1% |
| Sharon Horgan – Bad Sisters (Apple TV+) | — | Less than 1% |
Two classics have joined forces to create a new television hit and lead the race for this award. The legendary Kathy Bates (Academy Award winner for Best Actress for Misery) stars in Matlock, a modern reboot of the iconic legal drama of the same name.
Britt Lower from Severance and Bella Ramsey from The Last of Us are far behind in the odds. For Lower, this is her first nomination, while Ramsey is looking for redemption after losing two years ago.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Rogen – The Studio (Apple TV+) | -570 | 85% |
| Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) | +900 | 10% |
| Adam Brody – Nobody Wants This (Netflix) | +2400 | 4% |
| Jason Segel – Shrinking (Apple TV+) | — | Less than 1% |
| Jeremy Allen White – The Bear (Hulu) | — | Less than 1% |
Neighbors, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Superbad, and Pineapple Express are just a few of Seth Rogen’s comedies that left a mark on the big screen. His latest triumph is The Studio, which has been critically acclaimed and showcases not only his acting but also his work as creator and director — a feat that looks likely to be recognized with an Emmy in this category.
A living legend of the genre, Martin Short, is running from behind with Only Murders in the Building, starring alongside another great icon, Steve Martin. Adam Brody also keeps his chances alive for his role in the romantic comedy Nobody Wants This.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Jean Smart – Hacks (HBO Max) | -1010 | 91% |
| Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (ABC) | +3230 | 3% |
| Ayo Edebiri – The Bear (Hulu) | +4900 | 2% |
| Uzo Aduba – The Residence (Netflix) | +9900 | 1% |
| Kristen Bell – Nobody Wants This (Netflix) | +9900 | 1% |
| Tie | +9900 | 1% |
Jean Smart, who has already won six Emmy Awards and two Golden Globes, now looks to expand her trophy case. Her successful career brings her to the forefront of Hacks, a series that has the remarkable achievement of remaining critically acclaimed over four seasons.
Further back in the odds is Quinta Brunson, who created, co-writes, executive produces, and stars as a teacher in Abbott Elementary. Also nominated is Ayo Edebiri, beloved as Sydney in The Bear, a role for which she has won a Golden Globe, two Screen Actors Guild Awards, and an Emmy.
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