The 2026 Oscars are set for Sunday night from the Dolby Theater in Hollywood. The show will begin at 7 p.m. ET and be broadcast by ABC. Conan O'Brien is the host.
I've been following the Oscar odds all season long leading up to Sunday night's show and have a breakdown of how I'm projecting and betting all 24 categories.
Find by 2026 Oscar predictions below.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about the Academy Awards, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
2026 Oscar Predictions, Odds
Best Picture
Until the last week or so, it seemed a foregone conclusion that One Battle After Another would leave the Dolby Theater on Sunday night with the Oscar statuette.
It's still very much expected to do so, but there's certainly some momentum behind Sinners that's risen up just over the last two or so weeks.
Of the major precursor awards shows, the best predictors of Best Picture success are the PGA (Producers Guild Awards) and DGA (Directors Guild Awards). The PGA's top prize has gone to 17 of the last 25 Best Picture winners, while the DGA is 16-for-25.
That includes just last year, when those were the only two major precursor awards to pick Anora, the ultimate Best Picture winner.
Indeed, One Battle After Another won the top prize at both the PGA and DGA. It also won the top prize at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, the latter in a separate category from Sinners (Drama vs. Musical/Comedy) and Sinners lost out to Hamnet that night in its Best Picture category.
The only precursor award Sinners has won was also the most recent one. Sinners took home the top prize from the Screen Actors Guild (the newly named Actor Awards).
There's precedent here, but it's few and far between. Since 2000, there have been three instances where a Best Picture winner's only precursor win came from the SAG: 2019 (Parasite), 2015 (Spotlight), and 2005 (Crash).
Even if you were taking the math of those last 25 years at face value, which you absolutely should not do, that says that Sinners wins Best Picture 13% of the time, making the 23-26% range the market is implying terrible value.
The experts and editors at Gold Derby are buying into the hype too, however, and they have a fairly strong track record. As of this writing, 20% of them are picking Sinners to win Best Picture.
All of this is to say that I still expect One Battle After Another to win Best Picture on Sunday night, but there's enough smoke around Sinners to keep an eye on the number. I have a position on Sinners from a few weeks ago at +400 that I'm sitting on, and I'd probably need around that number or better to justify a bet right now.
Best Bet: Sinners (+400 or better)
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 14 Academy Awards, with those nominations spread out among screenwriting, directing, and producing (Best Picture).
He's never won.
At 56, Anderson has spent the last 20 years transitioning from a young up-and-comer into a member of the "new" old guard. When he was nominated for There Will Be Blood two decades ago, ultimately losing both that and Best Picture to the Coen Brothers and No Country For Old Men, it was a signal that Anderson was no longer a scrappy newcomer but a mainstay, and indeed he's spent the time since garnering regular nominations, just not winning.
With One Battle After Another, Anderson is now the frontrunner, and even if Sinners were to upset his film for Best Picture, it has seemed clear throughout the months leading up to showtime that this was the year the Academy had collectively said "OK, it's your turn."
Coincidentally, this comes during a year where Anderson's top challenger, Ryan Coogler, is essentially where he was at all those years ago. At 39-year-old, Coogler already has five nominations to his name, with three coming this year.
Coogler is the up and comer and he'll get his flowers before long, but this is Anderson's year. The odds say as much, which is why there's no value here.
Best Bet: None (Paul Thomas Anderson is winning)
Best Actor
Crazy things can happen in the last couple of weeks leading up to the Academy Awards, and that’s certainly what we have seen in the Best Actor race.
You might recall that a year ago, young star Timothee Chalamet seemed headed for his first Best Actor prize for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown.
Only it didn’t happen. Locked in a tight race with previous Best Actor winner Adrien Brody, the veteran emerged victorious, and Chalamet – who seems to really, really care about these kind of things – would have to wait another year.
Enter this year and enter another awards season where Chalamet was the favorite, an even stronger favorite than he was a year ago. The only real challenger, it seemed in the fall, was Leonardo DiCaprio, but buzz for his performance in One Battle After Another faded to the background amid the praise for the supporting characters.
It seemed like the Oscar was Chalamet’s. He peaked around -350 to win Best Actor in January. He won several precursors. We were all headed to an Oscar night where Chalamet was kinged as The Next Big Thing. The Best Actor version of Emma Stone in Best Actress.
And yet, here we are with less than a week until showtime and Chalemet suddenly finds himself with a plus in front of his odds.
What happened?
Well, first came the BAFTAs, where Chalamet lost out to a British actor (Robert Amarayo) who isn’t even nominated at the Academy Awards. No big deal there, for the most part, as Amarayo couldn’t beat Chalamet on Oscar night, and the BAFTAs are known at times to award its own over the bigger-name Hollywood favorites.
Next came the Actor Awards. In addition to Sinners winning Best Ensemble, we saw a shocker in Best Actor, which went to Michael B. Jordan over Chalamet.
OK, the Actor Awards are the last precursor ceremony. So that’s it, right?
Haha.
Chalamet appeared at a CNN & Variety Town Hall event in late February, where he said in a conversation with Matthew McConaughey that he didn’t want movie theaters to go the way of “ballet or opera,” where artists want to “keep this thing alive” even though “no one cares” about it anymore.
Boy, did that piss people off.
It’s worth noting that Chalamet’s appearance and the blowback all happened about a week before voting closed for the 2026 Academy Awards.
So here we are, with Jordan now favored at around -170 to -200 and Chalamet now an underdog at +170 to +220.
What’s extra interesting here is that while the experts and editors at Gold Derby agree with Jordan flipping with Chalamet, Jordan is still overvalued here as he is picked just around 52% of the time.
That’s because of the presence of Wagner Moura, this year’s Fernanda Torres/Sandra Huller as the non-English language nominee (for The Secret Agent) people see as a stealthy live underdog. More than 10% at Gold Derby have Moura winning this prize.
So, how do we bet this?
I have early positions on both Jordan (at +132) and Moura (at +1900) that I’m going to ride to showtime. My hunch is that Chalamet still has a better chance of winning than his odds imply, but I’d probably need north of +200 to show value there. For Jordan, I’d want at least +100 to bet him, while you’d want to get Moura at around +1350 for there to be any real value.
If you have to make only one pick, I think the best value is on Chalamet. There’s been a lot of noise of late, but we’ll find out Sunday night if there was any validity to it or not.
Best Bets: Michael B. Jordan (+100 or better) | Timothee Chalamet (+200 or better) | Wagner Moura (+1350 or better)
Best Actress
A year ago it was mostly chalk in the acting categories. The only one that seemed like a true toss-up was Best Actress, where Mikey Madison ultimately edged out Demi Moore.
A year later, we have a whole bunch of uncertainty in the acting categories. Which is great!
The exception is Best Actress, which will be won by Jessie Buckley.
There was a time where this race seemed like it could be more of a toss-up between Buckley and Rose Byrne. But Buckley has simply been a runaway freight train. She hasn’t been below 70% to win this award since October.
There’s no need to dig much deeper into this one.
Best Bet: None (Buckley will win)
Best Supporting Actor
One exciting piece of Oscars history this year is that we’re very likely to see at least three first-time winners in the acting categories.
Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress make that a virtual lock. The one that might end up a repeat winner is Best Supporting Actor, where the favorite is Sean Penn, who has two Best Actor wins to his name (2004 for Mystic River and 2009 for Milk).
Fellow nominee and cast-mate Benicio Del Toro also has an Oscar win (2001 Best Supporting for Traffic), but he’s a long-shot to win at this point.
Shockingly, not only has 74-year-old nominee Stellan Skarsgard never won one, but this year’s nod for Sentimental Value is the first nomination of his illustrious career.
It sure seems like it’ll either be Penn or Skarsgard here in the week before the ceremony, with Delroy Lindo lurking as a super dark-horse if Sinners overperforms to an absurd degree on Sunday night.
As it stands, Penn is priced about right, with Gold Derby’s experts and editors picking him to win at a 66% clip. Skarsgard is at 24%, so there is a little value on him to pull off the upset if you can find around +375 or better.
For what it’s worth, both the SAG and BAFTAs awarded Penn, which is what jumped him to the front of the line in the first place. It’s not uncommon for the two awards shows to agree, but what’s super uncommon is for them to agree and for the Oscar to go in a different direction. Since 2000, it’s happened just once, when the SAG and BAFTAs both gave their Best Supporting Actor awards to Christopher Walker, only for the Academy to award Chris Cooper.
Best Bet: Stellan Skarsgard (+375 or better)
Best Supporting Actress
This is the most fascinating major race of the night.
Over the last two-plus months, we’ve seen three of the five nominees for Best Supporting Actress emerge as the favorite or close to it.
The early frontrunner was Teyana Taylor and she’s still very much in the ballgame, tracking second on the odds board entering show week.
Amy Madigan’s surprising win at the Critics Choice Awards in early January proved she was a real player in this category, too. Then, the BAFTA went to Wunmi Mosaku, leading to a scenario where none of the nominees could be considered a significant favorite.
Madigan’s win at the Actor Awards ultimately put her out front and that’s where things stand presently, but it’s a tepid lead at around -110.
Indeed, just over 50% of Gold Derby’s experts and editors are picking Madigan. But what’s surprising to me is that Taylor and Mosaku are so close, at 24% and 22%, respectively.
I personally think Mosaku is being overrated here. She grew up in England (she was born in Nigeria and her family emigrated when she was a year old), and the BAFTAs are notorious for preferring their own, as we also saw in the Best Actor race. That the BAFTAs were the only show she won makes her win much less meaningful than we’re seeing in the odds board.
The Oscar for Best Supporting Actress has gone to the SAG winner 20 of 25 times since 2000. They’ve matched in six straight year and have only disagreed once since 2008 (2018 Regina King over Emily Blunt).
I am sitting on both Madigan and Taylor positions and will be riding them out until showtime, but I think the most value is on this year’s SAG winner, Madigan, at anything plus money.
Best Bet: Amy Madigan (+100 or better)
Best Original Screenplay
Sinners is an extreme favorite here and it’s easy to understand why.
Sinners has won virtually every single precursor award it’s been up for, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, WGA, and NBR.
The one place it didn’t win, notably, was at the Golden Globes. However, it was up against One Battle After Another, which it won’t compete against here.
The early season favorite in this category was Sentimental Value so that’s tracking second here, but we don’t need to overthink this one.
It’s also worth noting that this is Ryan Coogler’s best chance to win his first Academy Award, which the Academy is wont to do. Jordan Peele became the first Black winner of a screenplay Oscar for Get Out nearly a decade ago. Coogler is likely to be the second.
Best Bet: None (Sinners will win)
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another is the Best Picture favorite and nominated in several other categories, but this is its surest win.
It has dominated the precursor, even beating out Hamnet for Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes, which awarded Hamnet with a Best Picture win.
Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Academy Award. He could end the night with several.
Best Bet: None (One Battle After Another will win)
Best Casting
This is the first year the Academy will hand out an Oscar for Best Casting, which throws a little bit of a wrinkle into the process. There’s simply no history with which we can base our projections.
Still, there are precursor ceremonies that award Best Casting, and all signs point to Sinners. The only major precursor ceremony that did not give its top prize to Sinners was the BAFTAs, which awarded I Swear, a film not in competition here.
All told, I have Sinners winning this close to 90% of the time. It’s not the sexiest bet in the world compared to some of the plus-money value plays in other categories, but I would bet this down to around -550.
Best Bet: Sinners (-550 or better)
Best Cinematography
One Battle After Another won the American Society of Cinematographers’ top award last week and jumped out to a huge lead in a race that was seen as closer to a toss-up a month ago.
The ASC is a notable data point, but it’s worth nothing that the Academy’s voting base is significantly more international than a national guild.
As such, I think the value has moved to Sinners as the market has overvalued some of the OBAA buzz in the lead-up to showtime.
Best Bet: Sinners (+350 or better)
Best Costume Design
There’s a compelling math-based case to be made for Sinners here and it’s mostly on the strength of Ruth E. Carter, who has won her last two nominations in this category (the two Black Panther films, also Ryan Coogler collaborations).
Despite this, Frankenstein is the overwhelming favorite and it’s easy to see why. The costume design category doesn’t have a lot of precursors we can base our predictions on, but it won at the Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and most notably at the CDG under the Period category.
I think there’s a reason Frankenstein is so big of a favorite here, and am thus staying away from a betting perspective.
Best Bet: None (Frankenstein will win)
Best Film Editing
The only noteworthy precursor where One Battle After Another and Sinners went head-to-head was at the BAFTAs, and that was won by One Battle After Another.
At the ACE Eddie Awards, Sinners won in the Drama category, while One Battle After Another won in the Comedy/Musical category. The former is a lot more predictive of Oscars success, and would make me interested in Sinners if it weren’t for the head-to-head result.
The other contender here is F1, which took the Critics Choice Award, but I don’t put enough stock in that to get to the window.
Best Bet: None (One Battle After Another will win)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The question here is how much weight we’re willing to give Sinners’ head-to-head win over Frankenstein in the Period/Character prize at the MUAHS.
If the answer is a lot, then Sinners is live, but it’s the only data point working in Sinners’ favor here. Frankenstein won the Critics Choice and the BAFTAs, as well as the top prize at the aforementioned MUAHS.
The strength of Frankenstein as a nominee is centered around the transformation of Jacob Elordi as the Monster, while Sinners’ work is more seen throughout the film.
I ultimately agree with my colleague Chris Raybon here that there’s enough value on Sinners to throw a bet down, even if it’s a bit of a long-shot. If I’m in an Oscars pool, I might be taking Frankenstein, but I’ll throw down a small bet on the underdog here.
Best Bet: Sinners (+800 or better)
Best Production Design
This is another category that pits Frankenstein head-to-head against Sinners in technical achievement, but this is one where I’m less bullish on Sinners.
Frankenstein took the top prize in this category at the CCA, BAFTAs, and HCA. It also won at the SDSA and most notably in the Period category at the ADG, where it won again head-to-head against Sinners and other Oscar nominees.
Ultimately, that’s enough for me to anticipate a Frankenstein win here.
Best Bet: None (Frankenstein will win)
Best Original Score
The 41-year-old Ludwig Göransson has become something of an Oscar darling, having won both of his nominations in this category now, in 2019 (with Ryan Coogler) for Black Panther, and two years ago for Oppenheimer.
There’s nothing that suggests this award will go to anyone but Göransson this time around, either.
Best Bet: None (Sinners will win)
Best Original Song
The one guarantee on Oscar night is that the performance of “Golden” by the trio from KPop Demon Hunters will be among the moments of the night, and will also be the moment the show’s ratings pop the highest.
In terms of this race, we’re looking at the aforementioned favorite against “I Lied To You,” which was performed by Miles Caton in Sinners.
Sinners has some impressive wins that make it a somewhat live ‘dog, but the winners that KPop won are simply more impressive.
Couple that with the fact that “Golden” is a more accessible song, more popular, more well-known among virtually everyone, and I simply can’t pick against it.
Best Bet: None (“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters will win)
Best Sound
Three years ago, the Joseph Koskinski-directed Top Gun: Maverick came to the Academy Awards and walked away with one trophy: Best Sound.
This year, the Kosinski-directed F1 finds itself in the same position and we will likely see history repeat itself, which is fitting since Maverick and F1 are essentially the same film, just swapping out jets for cars.
F1 is the favorite here and I am actually showing enough value here to make it worth playing, even if it’s not the most enticing number in the world.
Best Bet: F1 (-300 or better)
Best Visual Effects
The first two films in the Avatar franchise won this prize and there’s no reason to believe the third installment won’t as well, even if the overall awards success of the third film paled in comparison to the first two.
Couple the history with the fact that Avatar has won virtually every single precursor of note, and I have no interest in betting this category.
Best Bet: None (Avatar: Fire and Ash will win)
Best International Feature
Most of my analysis is rooted in projections but this is at least somewhat vibes-based. Both Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent were nominated for Best Picture so they’re the clear frontrunners here. There’s nothing super obvious for why Sentimental Value should be so far ahead.
Both films have their share of wins on the precursor circuit, and Sentimental Value’s lead in this market likely has to do with total nominations (9 vs. 4), but The Secret Agent’s nominations mostly come in major categories.
The tiebreaker for me here is this: The Secret Agent is a very political movie. It’s about an oppressive governmental regime. It resonates with non-Brazilian audiences.
Sentimental Value isn’t political and has a father-daughter story that can resonate with people of any nationality as well, but I think given the current climate, we could see the film with a real striking message come through.
With what seems like such a tight race between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, I’ll be looking to bet the underdog. In this case, it’s The Secret Agent.
Best Bet: The Secret Agent (+225 or better)
Best Animated Feature
Where there is a world in which “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters gets upset in the Best Original Song category, the same can’t be said for this category.
Zootopia 2 is its closest contender, and while there’s some stealth love for the unheralded Arco, KPop Demon Hunters was an absolute sensation.
Stuff like familiarity and access might not matter so much in the Best Picture race, but it matters plenty here.
Best Bet: None (KPop Demon Hunters will win)
Best Documentary Feature
Weird things can happen in this category, but it does often come down to accessibility. The Perfect Neighbor is a Netflix film that has the financial backing of Netflix, and also is kinda/sorta in the true crime genre that appeals to the sort of junkies who will binge anything and everything on the streaming platform.
I think there’s a good chance for an upset here, but I have no feel for what could possibly beat it. I’ll sprinkle a bet on the ‘No’ proposition for The Perfect Neighbor at +178, but it’s small and I don’t feel particularly strongly about it.
Best Bet: ‘No’ on The Perfect Neighbor (+175 or better)
Best Documentary Short
The experts and editors at Gold Derby project All The Empty Rooms as the winner here, and I’ll follow suit with them in a category in which I have no strong feeling.
Best Bet: All The Empty Rooms (-169)
Best Animated Short
The experts and editors at Gold Derby project Butterfly as the winner here, and I’ll follow suit with them in a category in which I have no strong feeling.
Best Bet: Butterfly (+100)
Best Live Action Short
The experts and editors at Gold Derby project A Friend of Dorothy as the winner here, and I’ll follow suit with them in a category in which I have no strong feeling.
Best Bet: A Friend of Dorothy (+400)
2026 Oscar Predictions
- Best Picture: Sinners (+400 or better)
- Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (no bet)
- Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan (+100 or better) | Timothee Chalamet (+200 or better) | Wagner Moura (+1350 or better)
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (no bet)
- Best Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgard (+375 or better)
- Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (+100 or better)
- Best Original Screenplay: Sinners (no bet)
- Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another (no bet)
- Best Casting: Sinners (-550 or better)
- Best Cinematography: Sinners (+350 or better)
- Best Costume Design: Frankenstein (no bet)
- Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another (no bet)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Sinners (+800 or better)
- Best Production Design: Frankenstein (no bet)
- Best Original Score: Sinners (no bet)
- Best Original Song: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters (no bet)
- Best Sound: F1 (-300 or better)
- Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash (no bet)
- Best International Feature: The Secret Agent (+225 or better)
- Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters (no bet)
- Best Documentary Feature: 'No' on The Perfect Neighbor (+175 or better)
- Best Documentary Short: All The Empty Rooms (-169)
- Best Animated Short: Butterfly (+100)
- Best Live Action Short: A Friend of Dorothy (+400)
