Mark Wahlberg has built a career on playing men who solve problems with their fists. Adria Arjona has spent the last few years turning genre movies into must-see, star-driven events. This Friday, both are back in theaters on the same release date: Wahlberg in a civil-rights-era crime thriller, Arjona in an A24 desert slasher. Both films also come with a live Kalshi market tracking whether they land a "Fresh" Rotten Tomatoes score.
One movie leans on history and a mismatched partnership. The other leans on horror and a mother with nothing left to lose. Here's what's behind each Rotten Tomatoes score market, and why the reviews keep moving the line.
By Any Means Rotten Tomatoes Score Prediction Market
The Kalshi contract for By Any Means has spent the past few days sliding down. Early estimates put the film comfortably above the fresh threshold, but the forecast cooled as more reviews rolled in this week, landing closer to a coin flip. That drop lines up with a familiar pattern for awards-adjacent dramas: strong early buzz followed by a tougher round of wide-release reviews.
The Plot of By Any Means
By Any Means is a historical crime thriller, inspired by real events from the civil rights era in 1960s Mississippi.
- The story: a fictional Black FBI agent is sent to investigate a string of killings targeting civil rights leaders, and ends up partnered with a real-life mafia enforcer known for extracting information through force.
- The cast: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Wahlberg, Nicole Beharie, Giancarlo Esposito, Josh Lucas, and David Strathairn.
- The release: Paramount Pictures, September 4, 107 minutes, rated R.
What Critics Are Saying About By Any Means
Reviews landed all over the map.
IndieWire called it a film that "selectively blends true events into entertaining popcorn fare." The Hollywood Reporter was blunter, summing up the pairing of Wahlberg and Abdul-Mateen II with the line "an odd combo doesn't always make a successful one."
Our take: the split is real. For every review praising the leads and the historical weight of the story, there's another calling the buddy-cop framing a mismatch for the subject matter. That kind of even divide usually settles somewhere in the 50s once the full batch of reviews is in, and the market's current level already points that way.
Onslaught Rotten Tomatoes Score Prediction Market
Onslaught's chart tells another story.
The forecast climbed past the halfway point once the first wave of reviews came in strongly positive, then eased back as the wider release brought a more mixed set of opinions. The current forecast sits close to where it started, right around the midpoint.
Inside Onslaught
Onslaught is Adam Wingard's return to the pulpy, genre-blending style of The Guest and You're Next, this time distributed by A24.
- The story: an Army sniper living in a trailer park has to protect her young daughter after a trio of genetically engineered super soldiers, created through a secret military program, escape into the desert.
- The cast: Adria Arjona, Dan Stevens, Rebecca Hall, Drew Starkey, Michael Biehn, Eric Wareheim, and UFC champion Alex Pereira in his acting debut.
- The release: A24, September 4, 92 minutes, rated R.
What Critics Are Saying About Onslaught
The reaction has trended a little more positive. IndieWire praised the film's throwback feel, noting it "feels designed to resemble an obscure '80s action flick." Variety framed Adria Arjona's lead turn as tough and grounded, adding that the film is carried by "midnight verve and visceral violence." Not everyone was won over: Gizmodo summed up its reaction in two words, calling it "wasted potential."
Our take: the early wave of reviews ran hot, which explains the spike on the chart, but the wider release brought a steadier stream of critics flagging the same scattered plotting. That correction already shows up in the market, and a mid-to-high-50s finish looks just as likely as anything stronger.
Two Openings, One Shared Question
Wahlberg and Arjona headline very different genres, but they opened on the same Friday, and their films are the only two getting a contract-by-contract read on Kalshi. For now, both Rotten Tomatoes score markets sit closer to a toss-up than either star's fans probably expected on release day.
