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PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Tough Matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns

PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Tough Matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns article feature image

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns

PropBetGuy will break down one of his favorite NBA props of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Karl-Anthony Towns PRAs

Prop Under 36.5
Matchup T’Wolves at Celtics
Time 6 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

In his seventh season in the league, Towns has yet again been the driving force behind the Timberwolves offense. He’s averaging a robust 38.2 PRA this season, only staying under this line in 43% of his games. But digging deeper, I see plenty of value in his under PRA today.

Firstly, Towns’ production has dropped off a bit since the All-Star break. He’s stayed under this line in nine of his 16 games in the second half of the season. The Kentucky product has dealt with a forearm issue, which he’s played through, but it’s possible it’s limited him a bit on the offensive end.

The second and most important factor is the matchup. The Celtics defense has been stifling this season, rating as the best in the league. Against centers in particular, Boston allows the fourth-fewest PRA and the lowest field goal percentage.

Towns has struggled in these elite matchups, only averaging 33.1 PRA against the eight teams who defend opposing centers the best. He’s stayed under this line in seven of 12 games.

No Al Horford for Boston today, but I still expect Robert Williams and company to shut down the T’Wolves big man. I have Towns projected at 32 PRA tonight.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns under 36.5 points, rebounds and assists (-108 at FanDuel). Playable to 35.5.

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