The Supreme Court has begun examining the legality of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imported goods from nearly every corner of the world. The implications of the case are enormous — potentially reshaping the administration’s economic agenda, foreign policy, executive authority, and even the cost of living for Americans.
The high court must determine whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — a 1977 law granting presidents authority to regulate international trade in response to a “threat” during a “national emergency” — applies to this case involving the tariff increases announced back in April.
The hearings have just begun, and for those interested in wagering on the outcome, one platform allows you to place real money on the outcome in all 50 states. That platform is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
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Supreme Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Odds
“Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs? (Before 2028)” is the question driving the market on Kalshi, and most of traders currently believe the answer will be “no.” Those odds jumped significantly after last Wednesday’s hearing, when most justices — including several conservatives — expressed doubts about the legality of the measure.
The justices’ main concern centered on a potential overreach by the White House into powers constitutionally reserved for Congress, which is responsible for setting federal tax and tariff policy.
There is already a Supreme Court precedent under the Major Questions Doctrine, which holds that the Legislative Branch must explicitly authorize the president to take major economic or regulatory actions.
Facing the strong possibility of an unfavorable ruling, Trump has already said he may need to “prepare a plan B” for his trade policy.
Still, some of the traders on Kalshi believe the Court will ultimately side with the administration. After all, the Supreme Court’s 6–3 conservative majority has so far backed nearly every major Trump policy since his return to power in January — including controversial measures on immigration, federal spending, and independent agencies.
One argument raised in favor of the White House during the hearing pointed out that former President Richard Nixon also imposed a 10% tariff on all imports in 1971, under a law that preceded the current IEEPA. While the legality of that measure was never reviewed by the Supreme Court, it was upheld by a lower federal court.
Another key question is whether it would be administratively feasible to reimburse companies for the more than $100 billion in tariffs paid under the policy if the measure is ultimately overturned.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
