Adon’s U.S. Open First-Round Leader Bets: Dustin Johnson and a Few Sleepers

Jun 13, 2019 07:53 AM EDT

Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dustin Johnson.

  • Adon S. runs through his favorite First-Round Leader bets for the 2019 U.S. Open, which gets underway at Pebble Beach Golf Links on Thursday, June 13.
  • Dustin Johnson has shown an ability to get off to quick starts at major championships, and at 16-1 odds, he's worth a wager this week, in addition to five other golfers.

This week brings us to my favorite region of the country when making First-Round Leader wagers — the West Coast. The poa greens out west basically cut the field in half for us on Thursday since we usually always will target the early morning wave to take advantage of smoother greens.

Poa grows throughout the day, which gives the golfers in the afternoon wave bumpier surfaces to putt on, and with there being no wind bias at the time of writing, I see no reason to deviate from my tried-and-true FRL betting strategy for tournaments out west.

Even if we disregard the type of grass here, it is typically a good idea to target the early morning starters when wind is not a factor, since the greens will firm out as the sun bakes them throughout the day. Add in the fact that these are USGA greens, and it makes even more sense to target the softer greens in the morning wave.

Here are my six selections to lead the U.S. Open after Round 1. I’ll will be risking roughly 1 unit total to win 10 units.

Dustin Johnson

Odds: 16-1 (.63u)
Tee time: 11:13 a.m. ET

DJ’s history in the majors is a fascinating topic. He is remembered mostly for his obvious failures to close them on Sundays, but nobody gives him credit for the four times he has led a major after Round 1, or the nine times that he has sat inside the top five.

OK, only golf handicappers would care about his Round 1 record, and I fondly remember 2015, when D.J. was the First-Round Leader in back-to-back majors at Chambers Bay and St. Andrews. D.J. also unsurprisingly ranks third overall in Round 1 scoring average this season in PGA Tour’s events.

So let’s summarize this:

  • We get better odds here compared to his outright winner number.
  • DJ loves to storm out of the gates in majors, and his most concerning attribute — that he fails to come through on Sunday — doesn’t come into play with this wager.
  • He has a morning tee time on a course that he has turned into his golfing playground throughout his career.

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