How to Bet These Workday Charity Open Matchups: Rose vs. Koepka, Cantlay vs. Thomas, More


Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay

  • Our crew has identified the best matchup bets for this week's PGA Tour event: The 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village.
  • See their picks for Justin Rose vs. Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay vs. Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland vs. Rickie Fowler.

One of the hard truths about gambling on golf is that betting the big names to win is not a winning strategy. Sure, Bryson DeChambeau just won as the clear favorite last week, but that was just the fourth time that the chalk cashed since the 2019-20 season began back in September.

That doesn’t mean you can’t bet on the big names. You just need to be creative with how you do it.

One way to get some exposure on players at the top of the board is by betting on matchups.

Our golf analysts picked out their favorites below:

Jason Sobel

Justin Rose (+110, $100 bet wins $110) over Brooks Koepka

While I also like defending Memorial Tournament champion Patrick Cantlay at the same price over Justin Thomas, this one is my favorite matchup on the board this week.

In 13 career starts at Muirfield Village, Rose has made 10 cuts, owns one win and two-runner-up finishes. With post-COVID break results of T-3 and T-14 before an MC at the Travelers, he’s been playing well with the new equipment and should be able to hold off Koepka coming off a two-week break.

Pick: Justin Rose (+110)

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Josh Perry

Viktor Hovland (+100) over Rickie Fowler

Hovland has been playing really well since the restart, finishing inside the top-25 in all four of his starts.

Fowler did seem to find some form in Detroit and has a good history here, but for the past month, Hovland has been the far more consistent player.

Viktor’s tee-to-green game has been among the best on TOUR so I’ll take a chance with the guy playing better as a small underdog against a player in lukewarm form with a solid history here.

Pick: Viktor Hovland (+100)

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Bryan Mears

Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Justin Thomas

I know the betting market really likes JT this week, given that he’s the field favorite to win. He’s obviously an incredible golfer and should rebound from an abnormally poor putting outing at the Travelers Championship when he missed the cut.

But I just don’t see a big difference between him and Cantlay this week. Admittedly, Cantlay wasn’t as sharp with his irons as he normally is at the Travelers, but I think he’ll be able to turn that around given his long-term game.

And Muirfield clearly fits his eye: He won last year and got in fourth the year before. He sets up well for this course obviously, and I think anything plus money on him vs. JT is a solid buy. I’d have this more in the JT -115/Cantlay -105 range, which means I’m getting 15 cents of value in my opinion.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+110)

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Collin Wilson

Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Justin Thomas

I will happily run with the Cantlay Flag in my largest wager of the weekend.

Thomas has finished inside the top-10 here in 2017 and 2018 and his stats will look good at any course, but Cantlay checks those boxes, too.

One of the key statistics for this tournament is long-term scrambling and Cantlay ranks sixth in this field over the last 75 weeks while Thomas sits in 46th. Additonally, I can’t ignore the fact that Cantlay is the best long-term par-3 scorer in the field over the past year and that should be an important factor at a shortened Muirfield Village.

Thomas is one of the best bentgrass/POA annua putters in the world, but Cantlay is right behind him in strokes gained on the green.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+110)

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CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
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