2021 Valspar Championship Round 3 Best Bet: Back Keegan Bradley Over Sam Burns at Copperhead (Saturday, May 1)

After two rounds of The Valspar Championship, both Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns have given themselves a bit of separation from the field. Burns got to 12 under par by firing the low round of the week, carding a 63, on Friday at Copperhead.

Alternatively, Bradley was pretty steady all day until the 18th hole where he jarred it from the fairway on 9 to finish his round. At 12 under, the pair has a four-shot cushion over the trio of Lucas Glover, Max Homa and Charley Hoffman, all of whom  sit at 8 under for the tournament.

Looking ahead to the third round, my best bet will be focused on the the final pairing on Moving Day.

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Best Bet

Keegan Bradley (-117) over Sam Burns (DraftKings)

Something feels different about Bradley this week.

In his post-round interview, he talked about how comfortable he has felt on the greens lately, especially at Copperhead. His tee-to-green game is always extremely reliable, but this week it has been even more stellar than usual.

After two rounds, Bradley leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+5.4); Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+6.9); and, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (+8.3). Additionally, this is the right spot to fade Burns. It’s always difficult to follow up an extremely low round, which I expect to be the case for Burns.

The 24-year-old has also proven time and time again in his career that he can not be trusted in important spots. He’s usually a sure-fire bet for a mediocre or poor round when he has a chance to take a stranglehold on a tournament

His tee-to-green statistics through two rounds have been above average, but he’s well behind Bradley in the three aforementioned categories in which Keegan leads the field.

This Round 3 matchup bet is both a play on Bradley and a play against Burns.