Updated U.S. Open 2022 Odds & 8 Picks for Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, More

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We’ve reached the third major of 2022. While the course is poised to be incredibly difficult and the field is stacked with the world’s best, it seems like golf itself hasn’t been the story this week in Brookline, Mass.

With a competing tour taking shape and its players in the U.S. Open field at The Country Club, the world’s focus is on the off-the-course issues surrounding golf. By Thursday morning, though, players will be teeing off and we’ll be in for four fantastic days of golf that will see the game’s elite players look like amateurs at times.

The U.S. Open is known for its difficulty, and The Country Club in Brookline will be no different this week. Roughs will be penalizing, greens will be lightning fast and require absolute precision.

It’s going to be a joy to watch for golf fans everywhere.

Last week, our staff got hot, hitting three of its six picks at +450, +120 and -115 odds for the RBC Canadian Open.

Check out their detailed picks and breakdowns for golf’s third major of 2022 below.

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2022 U.S. Open Best Bets

Brooks Koepka — Miss Cut (+140)

Chris Murphy: Since I have a full card of best bets this week, I’ll go off the board a bit with a prop for the U.S. Open.

Much of what we will hear around Brooks Koepka the rest of this week will be about his interview on Tuesday, during which he threw shade at the questions being asked and didn’t exactly take a hard stand for his future. He’ll have that looming over him in an event where you don’t need distractions to struggle.

Koepka comes in with his worst form in big events this year, having missed cuts at THE PLAYERS and Masters, which were followed by a T55 at the PGA Championship. He has certainly always stood out at the U.S. Open, but it’s hard to look at him as the same Koepka who has two wins and two more top-four finishes in his last four appearances at this major.

Koepka’s 2022 has been riddled by injuries, and the added cloud over him won’t help this week on what is annually the toughest test in golf. This seems to be setting up for another big tournament where the weekend is played without Koepka on the course.

Jon Rahm +1600

Matt Vincenzi: The last time I can remember Jon Rahm being +1600 or better was the 2020 Memorial Tournament, which he won. You don't often hear that a player in this price range is a "value" play, but this is absolutely one.

Despite his relative struggles this season, Rahm still is the best golfer in the world off the tee. At a U.S. Open, long and straight is the recipe for success, and he's as long and straight as it gets.

The Spaniard has only lost strokes off the tee in one of his past 42 measured events on TOUR. That event was his most recent start at the Memorial, which I feel comfortable labeling as an outlier.

The Country Club is going to play incredibly challenging off the tee. Rahm is simply the most reliable player off the tee in the world, and I trust him to put himself in the optimal position for his second shot more times than not.

The 27-year-old would be the first to tell you it's been a down year relative to his expectations. But Rahm's "down year" still places him first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and second in Greens in Regulation Gained in his past 24 rounds.

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Max Homa +5000

Joshua Perry: Homa is a guy I’ll keep looking to in majors as long as he stays in this mid-tier range. He’s shown on multiple occasions the ability to play well against strong fields on some of the tougher courses.

Homa’s current form is where it needs to be. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 since the Masters, including a win during that run at the Wells Fargo. He has all aspects of his game in solid shape, as well, gaining strokes in every category during his last two events.

Tony Finau +2200 & Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800 (Winner Without Special — DraftKings)

Derek Farnsworth: I generally try to stay away from the alternate golf markets since they’re usually juiced up to the point of being unbettable. However, DraftKings has an interesting outright market that I have my eye on this week. It’s the winner without Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.

Essentially, it’s a bet on who will finish the highest if we take the biggest five favorites out of the equation.

This type of bet seems perfect for both Finau and Fitzpatrick. They’re known for their ability to contend every week instead of their ability to win.

After months of struggling, Finau is finally rounding back into form. He finished fourth at Colonial where he gained 7.4 strokes tee to green, and he finished second in Canada last week where he gained 11.8 strokes tee to green. Finau’s driver is working again and that will be critical this week at The Country Club.

You will probably hear this 100 times throughout the week, but Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U.S. Amateur here in 2013. While I’m not putting much into that, it certainly doesn’t hurt. He has always talked about playing his best on firm and fast golf courses and barring any rain, that’s what we can expect this week. He’s added distance off the tee this year, he has gained strokes on approach in 11 straight events, and he has one of the best short games on the PGA TOUR.

Again, they don’t need to win in order to win this bet. We just need one to finish highest on the leaderboard if we take out Rahm, Rory, JT, Scheffler and Schauffele.

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Gooch, Bradley, Riley and Harman — Make the Cut (+500)

Rob Bolton: I dig how FanDuel reformatted its Golf Specials board. It’s more inviting because it’s easier to read, so check it out if you haven’t already. However, given that this is the U.S. Open, as much as I’d like to lean into a Top-5/10/20 combo, I’m retreating into a standard make-the-cut offering at DraftKings.

While the value of the kickback reflects the 4-for-4 requirement, it also respects the depth of the field. I’d take all these guys individually, anyway, as each presents cause for at worst a top-40 finish. So, do yourself a solid and push in more than one unit on this parlay.

Going back five starts in stroke-play competition for each, they're a combined 18-for-20. Furthermore, Gooch (4-for-5) has made the weekend in four straight majors, it’s a regional home game for Bradley (5-for-5), Riley is on a tear (his 5-for-5, including a T13 at Southern Hills) and Harman (4-for-5) has made the cut in four straight U.S. Opens.

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Patrick Cantlay +2500

Landon Silinsky: In four career U.S Open starts Cantlay has yet to miss a cut, and boasts a pair of top-20 finishes. His lack of success at majors is truly an enigma because he’s truly one of the most talented golfers on the planet and has virtually no weaknesses in his game. He's good both on and around the greens to go along with his elite ball-striking, which is pretty rare. He unsurprisingly sits fourth in this field in Total Strokes gained over his past 48 rounds.

We know Cantlay does some of his best work on shorter tracks, evidenced best by his success at Sherwood, TPC Summerlin and Harbourtown. This week we get a 7,200 yard par 70 and I'm expecting big things from the fourth ranked player in the world. He should also be quite comfortable with these poa greens, being a California native.

This could very well be the week Cantlay captures that elusive first career major, and I won’t be missing out.

Xander Schauffele +2200

Bryan Berryman: Everything seems to be aligning for Xander Schauffele this week in Brookline.

We have a great player who is coming in with excellent form, to a tournament format he’s had particularly great success in during his career. In his five career U.S. Open starts, Schauffele has finishes seventh, sixth, fifth, fifth and third. He’s never finished outside of the top 10, which is incredible given the difficulty of courses presented by the USGA and strength of these fields.

Over the last 24 rounds, Xander ranks eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in Fairways Gained, while also ranking inside the top 25 in both Bogeys Avoided and Birdies or Better Gained. This lethal ball-striking and scoring combination should be a perfect fit for what The Country Club will demand of players this week, and it checks every box I am looking for in a winner.

Schauffele currently sits atop the list of best golfers in the world without a major-championship win. His complete game from tee to green is tailor made for major championships and should put him in contention down the stretch again this week. I believe this is the time for Schauffele to remove his name from that aforementioned list.

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