2022 Valero Texas Open Odds: 3 Outright Picks and 1 DFS Value Play

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It's the week before the Masters, which makes it difficult to focus on the task at hand.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't constantly checking the Tiger Woods tracker accounts to see where his jet is heading each day (toward Augusta National on Tuesday morning for anyone who's wondering). While it's fun to dive into the storylines for next week, we have a more pressing tournament to handicap — the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio is a course that requires golfers to play well in all aspects of their game. Distance can be an advantage here, but you can't be too errant off the tee. Approach play is critical, as these greens are tiered and generally difficult to hit on average. Scrambling has been a big part of the winning formula, as even the best ball-strikers are going to miss greens at times (especially if the wind picks up — this is Texas after all).

It wouldn't surprise anyone if one of the big names comes out and dominates this week. Rory McIlroy headlines the field and should be well-rested after sitting out the WGC-Dell Match Play. Jordan Spieth is the defending champ and is looking to discover some form before the Masters.

Abraham Ancer is essentially playing a home game. Bryson DeChambeau and Hideki Matsuyama are both looking to tune up their games, having missed time with injuries. And finally, Corey Conners has won this event in the past and made it to the final four of last week's Match Play.

My plan is to fade the top of the board in hopes of cashing in on a longshot.

Bet Patton Kizzire at BetMGM, get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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Outright Picks

Patton Kizzire +6600

Kizzire has long been one of the best putters on tour, especially on Bermuda greens. His driver is by far his most inconsistent club, but he doesn't lack length. If he can reel it in off the tee, he could find himself in contention at this event for the second straight year (T9 in 2021).

The most encouraging statistic for me is that Kizzire has gained more than 13 strokes on approach over his last five events.

Jhonattan Vegas +5500

Vegas has always been one of the best total drivers on tour. He's long and straight, which is a rare combination in this day and age.

More importantly, he has turned into one of the better iron players on tour. Since the start of July 2021, he's eighth in this field in strokes gained on approach.

Vegas doesn't have the best track record at this event, but he lives in Houston and is coming off of a fourth-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship last week.

Brendan Steele +8000

Steele is the exact opposite of the Kizzire thesis this week — I'm hoping to catch a rare positive putting week from an elite ball striker.

After missing five straight cuts, something has clicked with Steele in his last two starts. He has gained 7.3 and 11.8 strokes ball striking and posted finishes of T26 (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and T13 (THE PLAYERS). If he can keep that going this week, perhaps he can find success on greens at a course he has won at before.

DFS Value

K.H. Lee: $7,600 DraftKings / $9,000 FanDuel

For what it's worth, I am also betting Lee outright this week at +7500. However, he likely provides a safer DFS floor than anything.

Lee has made 11 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR and while many will point to the fact that he's lost strokes on approach in five straight events, I'll point to the fact that the rest of his game has stepped up in the absence of his irons. He's won in Texas and tends to play his best golf on TPC courses. In three starts at TPC San Antonio, his worst finish is T29.

Cheers to hitting a winner this week and padding the bankroll just in time for the Masters.

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