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2022 Waste Management Open Matchup Pick: Pat Perez Has Value at TPC Scottsdale

2022 Waste Management Open Matchup Pick: Pat Perez Has Value at TPC Scottsdale article feature image
Credit:

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: Pat Perez.

Click here for full Waste Management Open odds from BetMGM
Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +750
Justin Thomas +1200
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Jordan Spieth +2000
Xander Schauffele +2200
Daniel Berger +2500
Scottie Scheffler +2500
Brooks Koepka +3300
Sam Burns +3300
Bubba Watson +4000
Louis Oosthuizen +4000
Russell Henley +4000
Seamus Power +4000
Tony Finau +4000
Webb Simpson +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Abraham Ancer +5000
Adam Scott +5000
Corey Conners +5000
Harold Varner III +5000
Luke List +5000
Billy Horschel +5000
Tom Hoge +5000
Talor Gooch +6600
Harris English +6600
Max Homa +6600
Keith Mitchell +6600
Andrew Putnam +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Joel Dahmen +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Pat Perez +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Aaron Wise +8000
Gary Woodland +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Charles Howell III +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Adam Hadwin +12500
Alex Noren +12500
Branden Grace +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Chris Kirk +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Francesco Molinari +12500
K.H. Lee +12500
Lucas Herbert +12500
Michael Thompson +12500
Mito Pereira +12500
Nate Lashley +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Troy Merritt +12500
Cam Davis +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Hudson Swafford +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Martin Laird +15000
Matt Jones +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Sahith Theegala +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Sepp Straka +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Brendan Steele +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Kevin Streelman +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Sebastian Munoz +15000
Stewart Cink +15000
Brandt Snedeker +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Kramer Hickok +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
James Hahn +20000
Ryan Moore +20000
Adam Long +25000
Danny Lee +25000
Hank Lebioda +25000
Henrik Norlander +25000
J.T. Poston +25000
Kyle Stanley +25000
Roger Sloan +25000
Jonathan Byrd +25000
Adam Schenk +30000
Austin Eckroat +30000
C.T. Pan +30000
Graeme McDowell +30000
Jimmy Walker +30000
Robert Streb +30000
Rory Sabbatini +30000
Stephan Jaeger +30000
Sung Kang +30000
Tyler Duncan +30000
Brandon Hagy +35000
Brian Stuard +35000
Jason Dufner +35000
Kelly Kraft +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Peter Malnati +35000
Anirban Lahiri +40000
Brice Garnett +40000
Kevin Chappell +40000
Luke Donald +40000
Sam Ryder +40000
Seung-Yul Noh +40000
Tyler McCumber +40000
Wesley Bryan +40000
Bill Haas +50000
Brian Gay +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
Nick Watney +50000
William McGirt +50000
Ben Silverman +50000
Martin Trainer +75000
Preston Summerhays +75000
Jeffrey Kang +75000
Craig Hocknull +100000
Etienne Papineau +100000

We took the week off for the matchup article at AT&T last week, avoiding what is usually a very tough tournament to handicap given the strange format.

This week, we swing down to my neck of the woods to start what is my favorite stretch of the entire PGA TOUR season. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is a spectacle for many reasons, but this week’s field is absolutely packed with stars which should make for excellent viewing leading all the way up to the start of the Super Bowl on Sunday.

I didn’t find much edge in the matchups listed on DraftKings and FanDuel, but I did find one that my model showed a solid edge on.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined a matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. For this matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it!

Bet Pat Perez at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

Pat Perez (-142) over Branden Grace (FD)

My line: -187

This week, our best matchup actually takes us to PointsBet. FanDuel has Perez listed at -142 over Grace, but PointsBet has him at -115.

Grace has lost strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last eight tracked events. His best finish in that category was 33rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which was a 38-player event.

Perez, meanwhile, is hot. He is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes (sixth at the Farmers and ninth at Pebble Beach). In his last 24 rounds, Perez ranked 19th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, while Grace is 100th.

Grace is likely getting a bump from books here because he has made two starts at the Waste Management and finished second and ninth. I need more than course history alone to buy into a player, though, especially given that small sample size.

Looking at the recent Strokes Gained numbers, this is a tale of two players trending in opposite directions. I’m riding the hot hand this week.

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