2022 Waste Management Open Matchup Pick: Pat Perez Has Value at TPC Scottsdale

We took the week off for the matchup article at AT&T last week, avoiding what is usually a very tough tournament to handicap given the strange format.

This week, we swing down to my neck of the woods to start what is my favorite stretch of the entire PGA TOUR season. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is a spectacle for many reasons, but this week’s field is absolutely packed with stars which should make for excellent viewing leading all the way up to the start of the Super Bowl on Sunday.

I didn’t find much edge in the matchups listed on DraftKings and FanDuel, but I did find one that my model showed a solid edge on.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined a matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. For this matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it!

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Pat Perez (-142) over Branden Grace (FD)

My line: -187

This week, our best matchup actually takes us to PointsBet. FanDuel has Perez listed at -142 over Grace, but PointsBet has him at -115.

Grace has lost strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last eight tracked events. His best finish in that category was 33rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which was a 38-player event.

Perez, meanwhile, is hot. He is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes (sixth at the Farmers and ninth at Pebble Beach). In his last 24 rounds, Perez ranked 19th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, while Grace is 100th.

Grace is likely getting a bump from books here because he has made two starts at the Waste Management and finished second and ninth. I need more than course history alone to buy into a player, though, especially given that small sample size.

Looking at the recent Strokes Gained numbers, this is a tale of two players trending in opposite directions. I’m riding the hot hand this week.

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