2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds, FRL Picks: Troy Merritt, 3 Others Have First-Round Leader Potential

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds, FRL Picks: Troy Merritt, 3 Others Have First-Round Leader Potential article feature image

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Troy Merritt.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Wells Fargo Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

Rory McIlroy+800
Corey Conners+1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2200
Tony Finau+2200
Abraham Ancer+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Russell Henley+2500
Seamus Power+3000
Tyrrell Hatton+3000
Keegan Bradley+3300
Marc Leishman+3300
Cameron Young+4000
Max Homa+4000
Patrick Reed+4000
Paul Casey+4000
Si Woo Kim+4000
Sergio Garcia+4500
Doug Ghim+5000
Webb Simpson+5000
Keith Mitchell+5500
Matt Kuchar+5500
Brian Harman+6000
Jhonattan Vegas+6000
Joel Dahmen+6000
Sepp Straka+6000
Aaron Rai+6600
Adam Long+6600
Jason Day+6600
Kevin Streelman+7000
Matt Jones+7000
Matthew NeSmith+7000
Troy Merritt+7000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+8000
Martin Laird+8000
Russell Knox+8000
Alex Smalley+9000
Anirban Lahiri+9000
Denny McCarthy+9000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Mark Hubbard+9000
Ryan Armour+9000
Brandon Wu+10000
Brendan Steele+10000
Cameron Davis+10000
David Lipsky+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Lucas Glover+10000
Luke List+10000
Branden Grace+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
JT Poston+12500
Kurt Kitayama+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Rickie Fowler+12500
Sung Kang+12500
Tyler Duncan+12500
Adam Svensson+15000
Beau Hossler+15000
Brian Stuard+15000
Chad Ramey+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Kramer Hickok+15000
Matthew Wolff+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Taylor Moore+15000
Mackenzie Hughes+17500
Stephan Jaeger+17500
Andrew D. Putnam+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Brice Garnett+20000
Chase Seiffert+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
John Huh+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Michael Thompson+20000
Peter Malnati+20000
Rory Sabbatini+20000
Sam Ryder+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Stewart Cink+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Adam Schenk+25000
Austin Smotherman+25000
Ben Kohles+25000
Bill Haas+25000
Bo Hoag+25000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Bryson Nimmer+25000
Callum Tarren+25000
Cameron Percy+25000
Charl Schwartzel+25000
Charley Hoffman+25000
Danny Lee+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Harry Higgs+25000
Hayden Buckley+25000
James Hahn+25000
Joseph Bramlett+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Kevin Chappell+25000
Kevin Tway+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Peter Uihlein+25000
Roger Sloan+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Vaughn Taylor+25000
Wesley Bryan+25000
Dylan Wu+30000
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra+30000
Henrik Norlander+30000
Jim Herman+30000
Jonathan Byrd+30000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+30000
Vincent Whaley+30000
Chesson Hadley+40000
Jacob Bridgeman+30000
Ryan Blaum+40000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Martin+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
Brandon Matthews+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Johnson Wagner+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Larkin Gross+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Morgan Hoffmann+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Paul Barjon+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Scott Gutschewski+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
William McGirt+50000
Turk Pettit+50000
Tommy Gainey+50000
Drew Nesbitt+50000
Norman Xiong+50000
Nicholas Thompson+50000
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The weather this week at TPC Potomac for the Wells Fargo Championship looks quite unpredictable at the moment. There's likely going to be a good deal of rain on Friday and we may get a washout, but the first-round-leader (FRL) market looks like it won't be affected.

Wind will be mostly a non-factor throughout the day on Thursday, so I don't anticipate a morning/afternoon draw bias. In 2017 at TPC Potomac, we had co-leaders after the first round with one each from the morning and afternoon. Then in 2018, the FRL came from the afternoon.

We typically see a morning bias on the PGA TOUR in terms of first round leaders, but I think it's truly a tossup this week.

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2022 Wells Fargo Championship FRL Picks

Paul Casey (+5500)

If Casey tees it up on Thursday, there's no reason to believe he isn't healthy enough to play well. If he didn't think he could compete this week, he wouldn't have made the trip.

The Englishman has been a pretty quick starter throughout his career, and we've seen him lead some big events after the first round, like the 2020 Masters. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in the first round.

The course fit couldn't be much better for the 44-year-old, and he should keep the ball in play on this tree-lined difficult track. Throughout his career, Casey has been a green-in-regulation machine, which will be key to success at TPC Potomac.

Troy Merritt (+7000)

Merritt arrives at TPC Potomac in fantastic form, having finished fourth and 12th in his past two starts. Most of his damage has been done with the putter, which I find to be a positive sign for his FRL prospects. A hot putting round can catapult a player to a hot start, and he's gained 9.9 and 5.0 strokes putting respectively in the two aforementioned tournaments.

Also, Merritt ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens.

Brendan Steele (+7000)

The main skill set I've looked to target this week is strong overall drivers of the golf ball. Few in this field fit that description better than Brendan Steele.

In his past 24 rounds, the three-time PGA TOUR winner ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and third in Good Drives Gained. He hits the ball far without sacrificing accuracy. That will give him a massive advantage at TPC Potomac, which can be a difficult track to put the ball in the fairway.

If the course plays tough Thursday, Steele has the right type of game to keep things steady and stay off of the bogey train.

Tyler Duncan (+10000)

TPC Potomac is a course that Tyler Duncan should thrive on. He has the rare combination of skills that include both Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He is terrific with the driver, which will no doubt be a weapon around this course.

Last week, Duncan didn't play well in Mexico, but no one should have been surprised by that. Vidanta Vallarta was a bombers' paradise, and Duncan will never be able to keep up with the Jon Rahms and Cameron Champs of the world on a nearly 7,600-yard golf course.

In his 12th-place finish at Harbour Town a few weeks ago, Duncan closed his tournament with a final-round 65 for the second-lowest round on the course. If he gets the putter rolling once again this week, he's the kind of player who can go really low.

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