Updated Wells Fargo Championship 2022 Odds, Course Picks: Paul Casey Among 3 Fits in Potomac

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The PGA TOUR heads to Potomac, Md., to play the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. Typically, this tournament is held at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, but that course is hosting the Presidents Cup this year so we'll take a one-year detour north.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms is a par-70 golf course measuring in at 7,139 yards and features bentgrass greens. The course has been used professionally since 1987 starting with the Kemper Open from '87-2002 After that, the course hosted the Booz Allen Classic until '06. Most recently, TPC Potomac hosted the '17 and '18 Quicken Loans National.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including plenty of stars who are preparing for the PGA Championship in a couple weeks. Some of the notable golfers in the field include Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer, Paul Casey, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland.

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5 Key Stats For TPC Potomac

Let's take a look at five key metrics for TPC Potomac to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will most definitely be the most important statistic at TPC Potomac. Throughout the history of the course, the best iron players have consistently come out on top. In 2018, Francesco Molinari won the event and gained 9.8 strokes on approach. In '17, Kyle Stanley won the event and gained 6.8 strokes on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+26.9) (+2000)
2. Paul Casey (+18.6) (+3500)
3. Gary Woodland (+18.0) (+3500)
4. Cameron Percy (+16.9) (+30000)
5. Luke List (+16.6) (+13000)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While approach is the most important statistic, targeting players who excel both off the tee and on approach will be a sound strategy. Both of the players previously mentioned also gained over 4.4 strokes on approach each. A combination of both statistics, with approach being factored in a second time will allow the right players to rise in the model.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Cameron Young (+32.4) (+2800)
2. Luke List (+30.9) (+13000)
3. Keith Mitchell (+26.5) (+4000)
4. Corey Conners (+25.6) (+2000)
5. Austin Smotherman (+24.9) (+18000)

3. Fairways Gained

I'm going to reference both of the past two winners we've seen at TPC Potomac once again here, but there have been countless examples for the past twenty plus years of accurate drivers reigning supreme at TPC Potomac. In 2018, Molinari hit 17% more fairways than field average. In '17, Stanley hit 14% more fairways than field average.

Fairways Gained over past 24 rounds:

1. Chez Reavie (+41.5) (+20000)
2. Kevin Streelman (+38.1) (+8000)
3. Austin Cook (+38.0) (+50000)
4. Martin Laird (+37.2) (+13000)
5. Ryan Armour (+37.0) (+20000)

4. Strokes Gained: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards

This statistic will allow us to see the type of golfers who typically thrive on shorter par-70 tracks.

SG: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+51.0) (+2000)
2. Webb Simpson (+39.6) (+6000)
3. Rory McIlroy (+39.5) (+750)
4. Jason Day (+33.4) (+5000)
5. Lucas Glover (+30.6) (+8000)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

I am including putting this week to allow for golfers who have typically putted well on bentgrass to show up in the model. On shorter courses, the best putters tend to rise to the top.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) over past 24 rounds

1. Zach Johnson (+22.1) (+20000)
2. Beau Hossler (+20.4) (+10000)
3. Troy Merritt (+20.2) (+3500)
4. Rory McIlroy (+19.9) (+750)
5. Johnson Wagner (+18.5) (+40000)

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Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed –SG: Approach (25%), SG: Ball Striking (22%), Fairways Gained (22%), SG: Total Short Par 70 (15.5%) and Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (15.5%)

1. Corey Conners (+2000)
2. Brian Stuard (+15000)
3. Russell Henley (+2000)
4. Keith Mitchell (+4000)
5. Lucas Glover (+8000)
6. Martin Laird (+13000)
7. Abraham Ancer (+3500)
8. Joel Dahmen (+6000)
9. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)
10. Paul Casey (+2500)

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2022 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets

Corey Conners (+2000, Caesars)

Corey Conners has been knocking at the door all year and now finds himself at a course with a fit that feels too good to be true.

TPC Potomac favors golfers who can put the ball in the fairway. There are plenty of courses on TOUR in 2022 where players can get away with spraying it off the tee. This is not one of those tracks.

Errant tee shots will be penalized with big numbers on the scorecard, and few can put the ball in the fairway while also maintaining field average distance as well as the Canadian does. Conners ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and fourth in the field in Good Drives Gained.

In addition to being a great driver of the golf ball, Conners is also a phenomenal iron player. With tricky green complexes at TPC Potomac, sharp iron play will be a major advantage when trying to get the ball on the right level of the putting surface.

Additionally, in his past 24 rounds, the 30-year-old ranks 15th in the field in Strokes Gained on short par-70 courses.

Simply put, Conners checks all the boxes this week. The price tag is a bit steep, but this is the right course at the right time for a potential second PGA TOUR victory.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200, PointsBet)

In 2018, there was a certain narrative regarding a supremely talented European golfer who "couldn't win" on the PGA TOUR. Leading into the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac, Molinari had never won a PGA TOUR event. Prior to the victory, he had contended at numerous events throughout his career but couldn't get over the hump. After the Italian got his win at TPC Potomac he went on to win the Open Championship in 2018 and Arnold Palmer invitational in '19.

Another golfer who carries a reputation thus far in his career of not being able to get it done on the PGA TOUR is Fitzpatrick. Like Molinari, the Englishman has gotten into contention plenty of times, including at THE PLAYERS and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The Englishman also has a very similar skillset to an in-form Molinari and feels like a perfect fit for TPC Potomac.

The Englishman ranks in the top 25 in the field in Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and Good Drives Gained. He is excellent with the driver and will keep the ball in play on a course which that's an absolute requirement.

The main concern I have when betting Fitzpatrick is whether he can make enough birdies to keep pace on the scoring-fests we usually see on the PGA TOUR. Considering TPC Potomac has played quite difficult in the past, I don't expect the winning score to get out of hand this week, making it an ideal fit for Fitzpatrick's style of play.

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Paul Casey (+4000, BetMGM)

There is a definite injury concern with Paul Casey, considering he was forced to withdraw from his past two starts with a back injury. However, the risk is baked into the price this week. If he was healthy, his betting odds are most likely cut in half in this field. Additionally, I don't think he would attempt to play this week if he wasn't healthy with the PGA Championship right around the corner.

When Casey is at his best, TPC Potomac should be an ideal fit for the Englishman. He ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds and is a great all-around driver of the ball. He has excelled throughout his career on difficult courses and all three of his PGA TOUR victories have had winning scores of worse than 11-under. I expect conditions to be fairly difficult this week so the event should be right in Casey's wheelhouse.

Betting on Casey this week is by no means safe, but with outright bets I like to play the "ceiling" on players. If he is indeed healthy this is a great number on a world class player.