2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds, Picks: Outright & Group Bets, DFS Target
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Johnson.
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Click arrow to expand 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play odds via BetMGM
2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Harold Varner III||+8000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+10000|
|Min Woo Lee||+15000|
The match play is one of my favorite events of the year, but it tends to have a lackluster finish. It has nothing to do with the broadcast or the lack of talent in the finals, but there’s a natural letdown after 32 matches on each of the first three days and 12 on Saturday. There tends to be a lot of dead air on Sunday when there are only two matchups going on at a time.
On top of that, most DFS lineups and bets have already lost by that point. Regardless, I am extremely excited for this to start on Wednesday, especially since I’ll be in attendance this year.
Austin Country Club is a perfect course for a match-play event because it features so many risk/reward style of holes. You can be aggressive here and have it pay off, but you can also play it safe and let your opponent make mistakes.
This Pete Dye design is a par-71 that measures 7,108 yards. It doesn’t favor one specific skill set, as you don’t need to be a bomber, ball striker or short-game specialist to excel here.
If you like volatility, you will enjoy this week. While you have to play well to advance, there is a lot of luck involved. For starters, each match is only 18 holes. Compared to a standard PGA Tour event, that’s essentially like playing one quarter of basketball. On top of that, you can play great golf and lose a match or terrible golf and win a match. Patrick Cantlay is a great example, as he led the field in ball striking the first three days last season, yet he didn’t make it out of the group stage. He ran into every golfer in his group at their absolute best.
Dustin Johnson (+1900)
DJ hasn’t exactly blown the doors off the courses he has been playing, but he tied a course record on Sunday at THE PLAYERS to finish in the top 10 and posted a respectable finish at the Valspar Championship. He now returns to Austin Country Club, where he won in 2017.
Johnson has long been one of the best on Pete Dye courses, and he has a good track record in match play (22-17-2). I’m not particularly scared of anyone in his group and if he can make it to the Round of 16, we’ll take our chances from there.
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Cantlay has played this event three times, but he has never made it out of the group stage. Many will view that as a negative, but he has lost two playoffs and played well the other year.
As noted above, his ball striking numbers were off the charts here last season. He tends to play well on Pete Dye courses, he has a great track record in match play (7-3-1), and his group isn’t all that intimidating outside of Sungjae Im.
Favorite Group Bets
Dustin Johnson to win Group 8 (+190)
I’m betting DJ to win the tournament, so I might as well double-down by betting him to win his group. If he accomplishes that, we secure a small profit and get to free-roll the outright bet.
Max Homa is the big concern in Johnson’s group, as he has been in great form and doesn’t have a major weakness in his game. It’s hard to see Matthew Wolff stringing together three solid rounds in a row, and Mackenzie Hughes has been in poor form over the last two months.
Brian Harman to win Group 15 (+300)
Let me start by saying this group is stacked. I could easily see Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson or Abraham Ancer coming out of the group. However, Harman is the only golfer of the four that has a great track record at this event and good form.
Harman made it to the Round of 16 in 2018 and made it to the quarterfinals last year. Simpson hasn’t been in good form, Watson has really cooled off in his last three events, and Ancer hasn’t cracked the top 30 in his last four starts.
Favorite DFS Value
Russell Henley: $7,900
I’m honestly a little surprised that Henley doesn’t have a better track record at this event. In this field, he’s top 10 in good drive percentage, Strokes Gained: Approach, greens in regulation and birdie or better percentage over the last eight months. He’s not a bad putter by any means, so I would expect him to have better results in match play.
Henley is very affordable in DFS and has a winnable group against Joaquin Niemann, Maverick McNealy and Kevin Na.