Updated 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds, 16 Picks for Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay (left) and Jordan Spieth.
- The PGA TOUR is at Austin Country Club for the 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play.
- All 64 players in this week's field are in the top 70 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
- Check out our GolfBet staff's favorite picks, from outrights to longshots and group bets, below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play odds via Caesars
2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+10000|
|Min Woo Lee||+15000|
In what is the final major tune-up before Augusta National, the PGA TOUR is at Austin Country Club this week for the WGC-Dell Match Play.
This field is made up of top-70 players and while there are a few noteworthy names who aren’t in the field, there is sure to be high-level play all over Austin this week. Last year, eight players who were the lowest-seeded golfer in their group made it to the knockout rounds. That speaks to the quality of golfers from top to bottom.
Obviously, this is a unique one for bettors. You have head-to-head matchups every single day, and then there are always outright bets to make. Well, given the huge number of upsets last year, we have you covered with an outright, longshot and group pick from our GolfBet staff.
Check out our writers’ favorite picks below, get your bets in, then sit back and enjoy five days of high-quality golf.
2022 WGC-Dell Match Play
Justin Thomas +1400
Jason Sobel: Trust me: I didn’t plan it this way. In an event which so often defies the chalk, from No. 32-seed Billy Horschel winning last year to No. 48-seed Kevin Kisner in 2019, there’s not much sense in playing a short-priced superstar.
But, as I usually do for this tournament, I went through the entire bracket, match by match, picking winners until I got to the end. And, well, I had JT – fresh off another title contention; fresh off again telling us that he’s close to some big-time results – winning every match on his way to his first victory in over a year.
Thomas has as much talent as anyone, the biggest chip on his shoulder and perhaps the most desire to claim that elusive trophy. He’s hardly the best value on the board, but he’s my favorite to win this thing.
Alex Noren +6000
Chris Murphy: I don’t have a whole lot of interest in taking players near the top of the board this week as the volatility of this format isn’t conducive to lay low odds in my opinion. I’ll look down the board with both of my best bets, and it’ll start with someone I have been backing now for weeks as it seems I have developed a bit of an Alex Noren problem.
I can’t seem to jump off at this point since he continues to produce results and it certainly wouldn’t make any sense to get away from him this week as Noren has a surprisingly great track record at this event, which includes two top-five finishes. Overall, he holds a 19-8 match play record and is once again showing some of the form that is more in line with the player that posted those top finishes in 2017 and ‘18.
Noren gets the added bonus of being in a group with a few players that shouldn’t really scare him this week. Louis Oosthuizen lost all three of his matches in 2021, while Corey Conners is yet to score his first win, leaving Paul Casey as his most formidable foe. I like the long odds we get for Noren and expect he may find his way through to the next round from this group, leaving him with a great chance to make a long run in this event.
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Matt Vincenzi: We are finally starting to see Tommy Fleetwood round into the form that made him a fan favorite throughout the course of his career. At the PLAYERS Championship, he gained 8.0 strokes from tee to green, which was the most he’s gained in over a year (Honda Classic 2020 +9.0). The Englishman followed up the performance with a solid showing at the Valspar Championship where he finished in a tie for 16th.
Fleetwood has excelled in match play formats throughout his career. He has a career record of 12-9-3 in singles matches and has won some big ones before. Most will remember his incredible performance in the 2018 Ryder Cup at Le Golf National where he was the second leading point scorer for the winning side, scoring 4 points in 5 matches.
Tommy is still in search of his first victory on American soil, and match play may just be the perfect change of pace for him to get it done.
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Derek Farnsworth: I had Cantlay as an anchor to many DFS lineups last year in this tournament, so I will always remember the fact that he led the first round in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, yet failed to get out of his group. He ultimately lost in a playoff and was sent home packing.
Cantlay has been knocking at the door of this event every time he’s played it, as he just fell short in 2019 and lost in another playoff in 2018. After a couple of down weeks (T33 and a MC due to being on the wrong side of the draw at THE PLAYERS), we are getting much better odds on Cantlay than I was expecting.
He has played on the Presidents Cup and the Ryder Cup teams and owns a very impressive 7-3-1 record in match play in his career. He’s also one of the best in the world when it comes to gaining strokes on Pete Dye courses. I like his chances to break his first round curse this time around, as he gets to face three golfers with very little match-play experience in Sungjae Im (2-2-0), Keith Mitchell (1-2-0), and Seamus Power (0-0-0).
Look for Cantlay to take his sweet time on every shot and every putt. Getting under the skin of your opponents can be half the battle in match play.
Max Homa +6000
Landon Silinsky: Homa has been playing some incredible golf of late and has just the type of resolve you’re looking for in this type of event.
He may like to joke around on Twitter, but when the lights go on, Homa is not the type to back down from anyone, evidenced best by his wins at Riviera and Quail Hollow. He does his best work at tough tracks in the toughest fields, and this week is no different. Homa has top-17 finishes in five of his past six starts and finished T18 on debut here last year.
He’s been especially locked in of late, ranking second in this field to only Viktor Hovland in SG: Ball-Striking over his past eight rounds. If he makes it out of his group, his only obstacle to reach the quarter finals is an injured Bryson DeChambeau, who’s making his first start since the Farmers in January, or Talor Gooch, who is 0-2-1 in his career in match play.
If you play out the simulations beyond that, he’d likely either have a date with one of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka or Shane Lowry with a shot to reach the semis. I really Homa’s path here and at 60/1 we’re getting some nice value.
Billy Horschel +3400
Bryan Berryman: Paired with Thomas Pieters, Tom Hoge and Min Woo Lee; it’s clear Horschel won the group lottery this year. My simulations make him +151 to win that group and advance to the sweet 16, which is a key factor in my decision to bet him to win this week.
To go along with the soft group, Billy has been playing at a near elite level over the past couple months with four top-16 finishes in as many starts. Every aspect of his game is clicking over the past 12 rounds where he ranks inside the top 10 in every statistical ball striking category and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting among the competitors in this field.
Horschel has a 11-6-1 all time record in match play, and is 8-4-1 in matches played at Austin country club. He’s checking every box I am looking for in a winner this week. I like him to defend his title and repeat as champion this year in Austin.
Thomas Pieters +12000
Jason Sobel: Armed with some serious offensive firepower, Pieters is seemingly a perfect fit for this format, where he can make birdies in bunches and shrug off the mistakes.
Though he hasn’t played his best golf since arriving in the United States this year, going MC-32-MC in three starts, his early consistency on the DP World Tour suggests a newfound on-course maturity, which could result in bigger performances.
I also like Harold Varner III, Maverick McNealy and Keegan Bradley to make some noise as longshots, but I think Pieters owns the highest win equity of that group.
Kevin Kisner +7000
Chris Murphy: Kevin Kisner is one of those players who is synonymous with Match Play, as he has shown to be a formidable opponent in this set up each and every year. He won this event in 2019 after finishing runner-up in 2018.
Even as he was unable to get out of his group last year, Kisner was still 2-1 on the week with notable wins over Justin Thomas and Louis Oosthuizen. He clearly has a comfort for this format, with a 16-6-2 record in this event, but also for the course at Austin Country Club, which allows him to play his style of golf with success.
The former Georgia Bulldog is coming into the week showing some form after a T4 finish at The Players and an up-and-down week that saw him finish T33 at the Valspar. I’ll happily take a longshot chance on Kiz at +7000 in a group that pits him once again with Justin Thoma, giving him a bit of a psychological edge from the start.
Kisner is by far the best putter of that group, which can be a lethal weapon to help him make it to the next round and that’s all we are looking for in this set up.
Keith Mitchell +9000
Matt Vincenzi: Mitchell doesn’t have much match-play experience, but he does a lot of things well that should make him an ideal fit for Austin Country Club.
In the past we have seen golfers who played in the SEC thrive in this event, and Mitchell is a similar type of player with an aggressive mentality. Bermuda putting is one of the biggest factors for the week, and being able to catch a hot putter is even more important in the match play format. Bermuda greens have been Mitchell’s preferred putting surface, and should be a comfort for the former Georgia Bulldog.
The 30-year-old comes into the event hot having finished in the top 13 on the leaderboard in four of his past five starts. His driving distance will give him an advantage this week and will make him a difficult opponent this week.
Tony Finau +6500
Derek Farnsworth: Nothing in Tony Finau’s recent form would suggest he’s ready to win another event on the PGA TOUR, but match play is a completely different animal than stroke play. You can really gain confidence by winning a match or two, even if the reason you win has more to do with your opponent’s play than your own.
Finau has a respectable track record in match play in his career (5-5-2) and while he’s never made it out of the first round at this event, he’s been close in two of the last three editions.
This event brings a lot of randomness into play, so I’m really looking to maximize my chances of getting my bets through to the bracket stage. Finau is an aggressive golfer who can make a ton of birdies. This can put a lot of pressure on his opponents.
Speaking of, he got grouped with the likes of Xander Schauffele, Lucas Herbert (no match play experience) and Takumi Kanaya. If he can beat Schauffele, he’ll have a good chance of moving on to the second stage.
Talor Gooch to win Group 9 (+225)
Jason Sobel: I was seeking a way to fade Bryson DeChambeau, who might be considered among the weakest of the Pool A players on a course that doesn’t suit his game and is coming off a lengthy absence due to a wrist injury.
Neither Lee Westwood nor Richard Bland excite me too much here, which leaves Gooch, who squeaked into last year’s field as the highest-seeded player and didn’t fare too well, but is a much improved player now, with his first career victory under his belt and five top-30 finishes in eight starts since then. A windblown, ball-strikers’ course should be right up his alley.
Jason Kokrak to win Group 2 (+333)
Chris Murphy: There are very few players who run better in the state of Texas than Jason Kokrak, and I’ll use that as my theory as to why he can get out of this group.
Kokrak’s first exposure to this event didn’t turn out as well last year, when he went 1-2 and was eliminated from group play. He had a shot to be in the mix but was unable to close and made some big mistakes to lose matches, but I would expect him to clean that up some his second time around.
Kokrak comes in off of being a popular pick last week at the Valspar, and I think he may go overlooked in a spot that should also fit him as part of a group with Collin Morikawa, who has his own struggles currently and a couple of other players in MacIntyre and Sergio who can run hot or cold especially on the greens.
This is one where the number has some value for the caliber of player we are getting with Kokrak, and the best number is at BetMGM.
Jordan Spieth to win Group 11 (+225)
Matt Vincenzi: If there was ever a week where drilling long putts would be one of the most important factors, this may be the one. A hot putter has propelled a handful of golfers to victory in this event, and Jordan Spieth is due to have one of his magical weeks.
While that may not be the analytical approach that readers may desire, it never is with Spieth. When he wins an event, it will be due to his predictably unpredictable short game.
While it’s true that Spieth hasn’t had a week where he has gained an enormous amount of strokes with the putter in a while, there is plenty of reason to believe that this may be the week. His best Strokes Gained: Putting performance in both 2020 (+8.6) and 2021 (+7.1) came at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. There’s no denying that the former Texas Longhorn loves these Bermuda greens in the Lonestar State.
As far as the group goes, I think it is a great spot for Spieth to be. While Scott may pose a threat, Justin Rose’s game has been out of sorts and Keegan Bradley’s match play record leaves a lot to be desired (1-11-4).
Dustin Johnson to win Group 8 (+190)
Derek Farnsworth: I would typically stay far away from what is similar to a four-ball favorite at +165, but I have a hard time envisioning anyone other than DJ winning this group.
Max Homa has rattled off four straight top-20 finishes on tour, but he has very limited match-play experience. Mackenzie Hughes managed to make it to the Round of 16 last year, but he has missed three of his last five cuts and has very little match play experience. And finally, Matthew Wolff has finished MC, T64, MC in his last three starts.
As far as DJ goes, he seems to be rounding into form right before this event and the Masters. He’s put together two strong Sundays in a row to finish T9 at THE PLAYERS and T39 at the Valspar Championship. He has long been known as a Pete Dye specialist and he has an excellent track record in match play – he won this event in 2017 and is 22-17-2 in match play throughout his career.
There will be plenty of upsets this week, but I like DJ to come out of Group 8 at +165.
Alex Noren to win Group 10 (+300)
Landon Silinsky: We are getting a really nice price here on someone who owns a 19-8 career record at this event.
Not everyone is built for match play, as it’s an entirely different style of golf than standard scoring events are. Noren, in three trips to Austin Country Club, has finishes of T17, 3 and T5, so we can certainly ascertain he gets up for this event. In addition to his event history, his recent form has been stellar as well. He’s coming off a T12 last week at the Valspar, which was his third top-12 finish over his past five starts.
Noren’s group has some quality golfers, but Corey Conners has yet to flash at this event, having gone 0-3 in his career. Louis Oosthuizen has not shown great form of late and looked bad over his final two rounds of the Valspar, losing over six strokes to the field over the weekend. That leaves Paul Casey, who does boast a good record here, but is someone we know is hit or miss even when he’s in good form.
With the way he’s been playing of late, I will gladly side with the Swede here who has the second longest odds in the group.
Xander Schauffele to win Group 7 (+175)
Bryan Berryman: My simulations make Schauffele +110 to come out of this group, which gives us excellent value against the posted number here.
Xander has quietly been playing some excellent golf over the past month or so, posting three top-15 finishes over his last four starts, capped off by a 12th-place finish at Valspar last week. The elite ball striking appears to have returned, which should help carry him over the weaker competition in this group.
Takumi Kanaya and Lucas Herbert, with Vegas odds of 250-1 and 150-1 to win this event, shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Olympic gold medalist in group play this week. This leaves us with Tony Finau as the main obstacle, who has been struggling big time lately. Finau has missed three of his last four cuts and is without a top-10 finish since August last year.
Fire up Schauffele to win Group 7 with confidence this week.
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