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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets: Odds & Expert Picks for Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott & More

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets: Odds & Expert Picks for Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott & More article feature image

Via Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Zalatoris of the United States and Viktor Hovland of Norway look on from the eighth hole during the third day of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas.

Click arrow to expand Arnold Palmer Invitational odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Jon Rahm+650
Rory Mcilroy+900
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Max Homa+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Tony Finau+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Will Zalatoris+2200
Viktor Hovland+3000
Jason Day+3000
Justin Thomas+3000
Tyrrell Hatton+3000
Matt Fitzpatrick+3500
Sungjae Im+3500
Tom Kim+4000
Cameron Young+4000
Hideki Matsuyama+4500
Rickie Fowler+5000
Jordan Spieth+5000
Keith Mitchell+5000
Shane Lowry+5000
Keegan Bradley+5500
Tommy Fleetwood+6000
Sam Burns+6000
Brian Harman+6600
Justin Rose+7000
Corey Conners+7500
Taylor Montgomery+8000
Gary Woodland+8000
Sahith Theegala+8000
Chris Kirk+8000
Tom Hoge+9000
Seamus Power+9000
Aaron Wise+9000
Billy Horschel+10000
Alex Noren+11000
Adam Scott+11000
Adam Hadwin+11000
Si Woo Kim+12500
Russell Henley+12500
Min Woo Lee+12500
Joel Dahmen+15000
Taylor Pendrith+15000
Adrian Meronk+15000
Patrick Rodgers+15000
Wyndham Clark+17500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+17500
Lucas Herbert+17500
Justin Suh+20000
Davis Riley+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Sepp Straka+20000
Sam Ryder+20000
Beau Hossler+20000
J.J. Spaun+25000
K.H. Lee+25000
Kurt Kitayama+25000
Will Gordon+25000
Brendon Todd+25000
Emiliano Grillo+25000
Andrew Putnam+25000
Ben Griffin+25000
Robby Shelton+25000
Ryan Fox+25000
Taylor Moore+25000
Nick Taylor+25000
Danny Willett+25000
Alex Smalley+25000
Luke List+25000
Byeong Hun An+30000
Joseph Bramlett+30000
Nick Hardy+30000
Eric Cole+30000
Scott Stallings+30000
Lee Hodges+30000
Thomas Detry+30000
Davis Thompson+30000
Mackenzie Hughes+30000
Garrick Higgo+30000
Adam Svensson+35000
S.H. Kim+35000
Charley Hoffman+35000
Harris English+35000
Ben Taylor+35000
Francesco Molinari+35000
Webb Simpson+40000
Aaron Rai+40000
Greyson Sigg+40000
Zach Johnson+40000
Kevin Kisner+40000
Padraig Harrington+40000
Adam Schenk+40000
Matthew Nesmith+40000
Cam Davis+40000
Martin Laird+40000
Kevin Streelman+50000
Patton Kizzire+50000
David Lipsky+50000
Aaron Baddeley+50000
David Lingmerth+50000
Ryan Palmer+50000
Peter Malnati+50000
Trey Mullinax+50000
Justin Lower+50000
Stewart Cink+50000
Troy Merritt+50000
Callum Tarren+60000
Thriston Lawrence+60000
Ludvig Aberg+60000
Ryan Brehm+70000
Cole Hammer+70000
Lucas Glover+70000
Pierceson Coody+70000
Luke Donald+70000
Tyson Alexander+100000
Chez Reavie+100000
Greg Koch+100000
Kamaiu Johnson+100000
Kyle Westmoreland+100000

The PGA TOUR moves to Orlando from Palm Beach Gardens in the second week of the Florida Swing for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. The TOUR features another designated event at Bay Hill Club and Lodge with a star-studded field as 44 of the top 50 players in the OWGR will tee it up this week at the API.

Jon Rahm is the favorite to win again this week as he has won three of his five starts on TOUR in 2023, but our golf betting experts are wagering on other players to pull through this week.  Find which favorites they're backing, their top long shot picks, their favorite fades and, of course, their best bets for The Honda Classic below.

Favorite We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Jason Sobel: Danny Willett
  • Chris Murphy: Sepp Straka
  • Matt Vincenzi: Shane Lowry
  • Spencer Aguiar: Aaron Wise
  • Nick Bretwisch: Si Woo Kim

Biggest Bust

  • Jason Sobel: Tom Kim
  • Chris Murphy: Patrick Cantlay
  • Matt Vincenzi: Will Zalatoris
  • Spencer Aguiar: Wyndham Clark
  • Nick Bretwisch: Cameron Young

Contrarian Player to Target

  • Jason Sobel: Tommy Fleetwood
  • Matt Vincenzi: Rickie Fowler
  • Spencer Aguiar: Alex Smalley
  • Nick Bretwisch: Sahith Theegala
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Sobel: Bay Hill is just plain hard. Whether you play it on a Monday morning in July or a Saturday afternoon in November or certainly four consecutive days here in the first week of March, it’s always going to be a difficult golf course.

I like players who have had success in other events where the winning score is closer in relation to par who are also elite ball strikers. Of the eight events which have been played so far in 2023, half of ‘em have been won by the player who led the field in SG: Approach. You can narrow down your player pool by seeking out great iron players who fare better in tough conditions.

Murphy: There is no faking it around Bay Hill. The players at the top will need to have their game working throughout their entire bag tee to green, but I’ll be leaning most heavily on overall ball striking. I would do that in a normal week around this course, however the projected winds just amplify the need to be really hitting the ball well both off the tee and on approach, and consequently, I’ll lean much more heavily on that than anything with the short game.

Vincenzi: Six of the past eight winners had recorded a top-five finish at Bay Hill in a previous season. This makes me feel even stronger about my best bet on Viktor Hovland.

Aguiar: Florida always emphasizes the need for ball striking since wind and water come into play. We see that with atrocious weather forecasts expected to hit late Friday afternoon, and the fact that half the holes feature water will only enhance the three-inch rough that will make stopping second shots more challenging on these fast Bermuda greens. Look for players to struggle when it comes to controlling their apex and spin rates because of those factors.

Bretwisch: The course is going to test these players more than likely any course on TOUR for these non-major designated events. In addition, the weather looks absolutely disgusting for the opening rounds. I’ll be prioritizing elite ball strikers and those who are elite around green scramblers (if not a top-tier ball striker).

Your Best Bet

Sobel: Will Zalatoris (+400) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+700) Top-Five Finish

It essentially came down to a toss-up between my two favorite plays on the board this week, so rather than choose between them, I’ll play ‘em together. As top two on last year’s U.S. Open leaderboard, each player fits the profile for what we’re looking for this week. Hit one of the two, and you’re making a profit. Hit ‘em both and you’re up 11 units. I love the chances for Zalatoris and really like the chances for Fitzpatrick.

Murphy: Keith Mitchell Top 10 +350 (BetMGM)

We have seen a bit of a breakout so far this year from Keith Mitchell as he found his way near the top of the leaderboard in Pebble Beach and then put himself in the final grouping on Sunday at Riviera. I look for him to continue that trend this week on another course that highlights his ability to hit it long and straight off the tee and utilize his sharp iron game.

Vincenzi: Viktor Hovland +3300 (BetRivers)

Last year, Viktor Hovland almost broke through at Bay Hill, but a final-round 74 was his undoing as he finished one shot behind a red-hot Scottie Scheffler. The conditions were tough that day, so him contending in those extremely difficult conditions is a good sign for his chances this week. For the week, Hovland gained 10.3 strokes from tee to green, which was third in the field.

Hovland is yet to contend in the 2023 season, but he’s started off the year solidly enough. He has three top-20 finishes in four tries and is hitting the ball well off of the tee, which is crucial for playing well at Bay Hill. In his past 12 rounds, he’s third in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, gaining 3.6 strokes on the field per event. Long and straight is most definitely the recipe for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and can make up for Hovland’s (more than) occasional short game woes.

Historically, international players have dominated Bay Hill, winning five straight at the event prior to Bryson DeChambeau in 2021 and Scottie Scheffler in 2022. This would be far and away Hovland’s biggest win of his career as he’s yet to win in an elite field. With all eyes on Bay Hill in a designated event this week, I believe the 25-year-old will breakthrough and become the star many hoped he would be.

Aguiar: Adam Scott (-110) Tournament Matchup Over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings)

There are reasons to be optimistic about what we have seen from Wyndham Clark over the past handful of starts. Gaining in six of his last seven appearances with his irons should be a massive boost when handicapping his 2023 profile, but I tend to believe the American is a West Coast specialist who thrives at wide-open Poa tests above anything else.

Clark's decrease on Bermuda is felt when we see him drop from 40th to 101st in Expected Putting for this surface, and the negative expectation for par-five scoring only further decreases his projection since he ranks outside the top 80 of this field. Add to that mix poor accuracy and past declines at challenging courses, and you get a weaker profile than the public may perceive.

Bretwisch: Viktor Hovland +3100 (FanDuel)

I didn’t have access to Hovland’s 33/1 number on BetRivers like Vincenzi did, but for the exact same reasons he discussed, I’m firing up Hovland +3100 on FanDuel. My implied probabilities have Hovland as short as +2300, and I rarely get a perceived edge when betting outright on a top-15 golfer in the world. It’s a number grab that follows a trend for recent Bay Hill success.

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