2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Updated Odds & PGA Tour Picks: Bet Jordan Spieth & Eric Cole at Colonial

It’s the Monday after a major championship, so I’d like to submit my official excuse for a truncated Charles Schwab Challenge betting preview this week after a 3 a.m. wake-up call, two flights and a much-needed nap.

Brooks Koepka might be able to follow up the PGA Championship by filling up the Wanamaker Trophy at the Florida Panthers game, but yours truly doesn’t have that kind of gear.

Come to think of it, not many have Koepka-type gear.

He’s now just the third active player to claim at least five majors, and the 33-year-old has a little more gas left in the tank than Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson.

As I wrote in my Sunday night column after Koepka’s victory at Oak Hill, sometimes all of the pre-major prognosticating and predicting can come down to one simple philosophy at these events: Just pick Brooks.

I have a feeling he might be a somewhat popular play for next month’s U.S. Open.

As for this week on the PGA Tour, it’ll be a battle of narratives at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Do you want to chase a player who was trending on the weekend at the PGA and has shown his ball-striking is dialed in? Or do you want to fade those who just competed in a U.S. Open-esque test of golf and go with some fresher guys instead?

There are plenty of options this week at notorious ball-strikers’ paradise Colonial Country Club, where the top of the board starts with Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Max Homa and defending champion Sam Burns.

I hate to stop all that traffic on Narrative Street, but we’ve so often seen in similar situations over the years that there’s no right or wrong answer to making post-major picks.

That said, I’ll start mine with a couple of players who played all four rounds this past week and should be trending in the right direction.

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Jordan Spieth (+1400)

There are several reasons why Colonial Country Club sets up ideally for Jordan Spieth to capture his long-awaited first victory of the year this week. Let’s start with last week, where he finished T29. Entering with a wrist injury that had forced him to miss the AT&T Byron Nelson, he not only gutted his way through the week, but he improved each day by posting descending scores of 73-72-71-69.

Spieth’s short game is always impressive, but his ability to consistently outdrive final-round playing partner Dustin Johnson was a testament to the length he’s gained over the past few years – not to mention a strong hint that the injury had subsided. If he was really still hurting, I have a feeling he’d skip this one rather than put the final two majors of the summer in jeopardy, so it’s a good sign just that he’s playing.

Of course, some of that rationale might have to do with host course Colonial, which has been Spieth's personal ATM over the years. In 10 career starts, he owns nine finishes of 14^th or better, including a win and three runners-up.

I was on-air each day on PGA Championship Radio last week with (among others) Fred Albers, the great on-course commentator who might’ve watched more golf from Spieth in-person over the past decade than anyone not named Michael Greller. While Freddie doesn’t delve too deep into the prognostication game, he’s extremely optimistic about Spieth’s game moving forward. If it’s good enough for him, it’s good enough for me.

Pick: Jordan Spieth Outright

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Eric Cole (+9000)

I’ve gotten the sense throughout this year that fans/bettors view Cole as a feel-good story – a 34-year-old journeyman who’s finally getting his shot at the big-time – but not a serious threat to continue chasing down impressive leaderboards. Trust me, though: This isn’t another Michael Block tale, a literal Cinderella story outta nowhere.

As many of his fellow PGA Tour professionals have intimated, Cole owns a ton of game, especially with his irons and putter. A sub-average game off the tee shouldn’t hurt as much this week, as driver isn’t necessary on many of these holes.

I’m not only a big fan of Cole’s game, but I’m also a big fan of his attitude and approach to the game. This is a guy who’s won literally hundreds of mini-tour events in the past.

Just like his playoff loss at the Honda Classic a few months ago, he’s going to get more chances to succeed, and I don’t see him shying away from any of ‘em. A lack of experience on this course could be a bit of a hindrance, but at this number, he’s worth the outright play.

Pick: Eric Cole Outright

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Sungjae Im (+1800) and Rickie Fowler (+3000)

I’m putting these two guys together because no two other players hurt my personal portfolio worse last week. I should probably apologize to all of you for my outright pick of Sungjae Im, who didn’t break 80 in the opening round, but he’d better apologize, too, just to complete the cycle.

In all seriousness, as bettors we tend to react to such losses by condemning these players, at least in the short term, like refusing to return to a restaurant where you got food poisoning. Not gonna lie – I’m a little hesitant here, but if you liked ‘em last week, there’s reason why you should still like them this week, as well.

In particular, Rickie Fowler hadn’t missed a cut since last fall at the Shriners, then he bounced back with a runner-up finish the very next week at the ZOZO.

Justin Rose (+3000)

Somewhat quietly – until this past week, at least, when he finished T9 at the PGA – Justin Rose has been playing some excellent golf lately. If you’re in the camp that says we should select players who were in the mix last week, then he makes a lot of sense here as a player whom you might not have used in OADs to this point but one you probably don’t want to leave on the bench much longer.

Emiliano Grillo (+7500)

Prior to last week’s missed cut, Emiliano Grillo had finished 23^rd or better in three straight tournaments, including a pair inside the top seven. Couple that with a strong record here that includes three top-20 finishes in the last five years, and Grillo owns that nice intersection of form and history that we like to target. I’ll have him for an outright, props and DFS, as well. Grillo is one of my favorite plays on this board.

Justin Suh (+9000)

I had the opportunity to interview Suh after a few rounds last week and was impressed – not just with his play but also with his strategic mindset around the golf course, as he spoke about playing “aggressive yet conservative,” meaning he might take an aggressive line off the tee but a conservative approach into the green, or vice versa. He’s the type who can think his way around a golf course very well, and Colonial is a thinking person’s course. This should be a nice fit.

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Russell Henley (+750 for Top-five Finish)

There are plenty of bigger names to choose from here, but I’ve long contended that Russell Henley remains one of the more underrated players on the PGA Tour. His iron play hasn’t been great this season overall, but he’s gained strokes with those clubs in five straight starts, which includes a T4 at the Masters and three other top-20 finishes. I’m a bit concerned that in his lengthy career, he’s only played this event once before – a 58^th-place finish five years ago – but he’s a good profile fit and should contend if his strong iron play continues.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Tom Hoge (+500 for Top-10 Finish)

After leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach shots for much of the season, Hoge dropped to second last week and is now – gasp! – all the way down to third, behind Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler. It’s not like he’s done anything wrong, though. He was more than a stroke better per round with his irons against the field at Oak Hill.

Somewhat surprisingly, his game has yet to match up with Colonial, as he owns just three made cuts in six starts with a T17 being his only finish better than 40^th. I do believe, though, that he’s an improved player from previous years, so a better week should be a strong possibility.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Matthew NeSmith (+500 for Top-20 Finish)

There were a few players about whom I was very bullish entering this year, only to see them disappoint for the first few months. Cam Davis was at the top of that list, but he’s started playing some really good golf again, especially in the biggest events. Taylor Pendrith is another who hasn’t quite hit his peak yet.

Then there’s Matthew NeSmith, a player I like because of the predictive nature of iron play and the fact that he’s proven himself as one of the better approach shots guys around, especially from below that top tier of players.

He started the year with just two made cuts in his first eight starts and nothing better than a 39^th-place finish, but he’s now gone 35^th-30^th-23^rd in his last three starts, the most recent of which was nearly a top-20 result at Oak Hill. I like him to keep those good vibes going and finish a few notches better this week.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Akshay Bhatia (+240 for Top-30 Finish)

Much like Sahith Theegala (who’s going to win next week’s Memorial Tournament, oh by the way…) and Davis Riley last year, Akshay Bhatia is still at the point where bettors know about him, but oddsmakers haven’t quite gotten aboard, so there remains plenty of value here. His ball-striking numbers are through the roof this season, and I don’t mind a small sprinkle on that 150/1 outright price.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Cole Hammer (+280 for Top-40 Finish)

From an outsider’s perspective, it looks like it hasn’t been an easy season for Cole Hammer, who’s bounced back and forth between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours with only a modicum of success. He does, however, own three finishes of 41^st or better in his last four KFT starts. If we’re looking at bigger plus-money plays, I don’t mind fellow Texas Longhorn Kramer Hickok in this spot, either.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,400)

Look, you don’t need me to tell you that Scottie Scheffler is the ultimate free square this week, with top-12 finishes in each of his last 14 starts. If you want to play him and squeeze in five others under the cap, I’ve got no problem with it.

But if you want to save some salary with your top-of-the-lineup guy, Collin Morikawa comes in at $1,100 cheaper than Scheffler. I didn’t love him last week, based largely on his ugly putting performance during a missed cut in his previous start at the Wells Fargo Championship, but I watched a lot of him at Oak Hill, and the flatstick looked much better in that T26 finish.

We know the ball-striking will always be there, and if he putts the way he did last week, he’ll contend here.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Brian Harman (DK $8,200)

Prior to last year’s MC at Colonial, Harman had made the cut in eight straight starts here, with nothing worse than a 31^st-place finish. This is the perfect golf course for his game, and while he’s been a bit all-or-nothing lately – a T7 and T17 among four MCs in his last six starts – he makes a lot of sense at a just below-average price this week.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Aaron Rai (DK $7,000)

A promising season for Aaron Rai has hit the skids a bit with missed cuts in his last three starts, but the fairways-and-greens expert tends to play some of his better golf on shorter, comparable courses. Don’t leave him off the FRL card, either, as an opening 67 at the Sony Open and 63 at the RBC Heritage suggest he can figure out these tracks in a hurry.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Cam Davis (+4500 for FRL)

As mentioned above, Davis is a guy I’d been targeting entering this season as someone who could become a top-20/30 type of player. Now that he’s healthy, he’s playing great golf once again, including a T4 last week.

What’s interesting here is that even though the Aussie’s greatest strength is off the tee, he tends to find a lot of success at short, tight courses, such as Waialae, Harbour Town and here at Colonial, where he finished T7 last year.

There’s a lot of offensive firepower here, so coming off a final-round 65 at Oak Hill, I like him to keep the accelerator down.

Pick: Cam Davis FRL

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Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Davis Riley (+9000)

If someone can figure out Davis Riley, let the rest of us know. He’s MC’d or WD’d in each of his last five individual starts, but of course, he won the Zurich Classic with Nick Hardy in the middle of that stretch. I’ll take a chance here that Riley can find something once again and like targeting him against players of a similar price who do most of their damage with the driver, such as Hayden Buckley or Joseph Bramlett.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Stephan Jaeger (+6000), Ryan Fox (+7500), Maverick McNealy (+9000), Billy Horschel (+10000), Jimmy Walker (+18000), Callum Tarren (+30000), Kramer Hickok (+40000)