2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Expert Picks & Odds: PGA Tour Bets for Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth & Denny McCarthy
Via Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Rose of England plays his shot from the sixth tee during the final round of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on April 16, 2023 in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.
Click arrow to expand Charles Schwab Challenge odds via bet365
|Si Woo Kim||+5000|
|Min Woo Lee||+8000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+35000|
|Paul Haley II||+125000|
The second major of the year is officially in the rearview mirror. While it’s sad that the Masters and PGA Championship are already behind us, that means that two more are still to come.
A huge congratulations to Brooks Koepka, who won his fifth career major. Unlike anyone we have seen since Tiger Woods, he has a way of showing up and playing his best on the game’s biggest stage.
We now turn our attention to the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas. There’s a fairly strong field teeing it up this week at Colonial Country Club.
Historically, this has not been a course that can be overpowered off the tee. The fairways are tree-lined and quite narrow (27-28 yards on average), which places a greater emphasis on accuracy than on distance. While longer hitters like Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak have won here the last two years, this isn’t a bomb-and-gouge type of setup like we saw last week at the PGA Championship.
The greens at Colonial feature pure Bentgrass and are small compared to Tour average. They measure around 5,000 square feet on average, which is actually comparable to Oak Hill last week. Even with little wind expected in the forecast, these greens will be fairly tough to hit on average.
Consequently, a strong short game has historically gone a long way in contending at Colonial. It’s no surprise that Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner and Kevin Na have all thrived here over the years.
Ultimately, this isn’t a course that favors one type of golfer over another. Golfers need to keep the ball in play off the tee, dial in their wedges (with a plethora of approach shots from 100-150 yards), and convert on and around the greens.
Let’s dive into the picks.
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks
Jordan Spieth +1400 (FanDuel)
We shouldn’t be concerned about the wrist injury for Spieth. He wouldn’t be playing the week after a major, and the week before a designated event, if his wrist was still bothering him.
His T29 finish at the PGA Championship doesn’t jump off the page, but he actually gained 8.4 strokes via ball striking last week. His short game let him down, which is usually the best part of his game.
I expect him to contend this week at a course where he’s posted nine straight top 35s with a win and two second-place finishes during that stretch. He loves this place and will have the Texas crowd behind him.
Pick: Jordan Spieth Outright +1400
Justin Rose +2800 (FanDuel)
Rose has played some great golf this season. He picked up a win in February at Pebble Beach and is coming off of a T9 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained 10 combined strokes on the field on approach, around the green and putting.
He’s a former winner of this event in 2018 when he shot a tournament-record -20, and his game really sets up well for the course.
Pick: Justin Rose Outright +2800
Denny McCarthy +5500 (FanDuel)
McCarthy is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, but he’s no stranger to being in contention. In his career, he has 18 top-10 finishes and five top-five finishes.
He has always been known for his putting, but the rest of his game is trending in the right direction. He’s 10th in this field in good drive percentage, is very tidy around the greens, and has gained 6.2 strokes on approach in his last four starts.
I always like him on shorter courses, so maybe he can finally break through at Colonial.
Pick: Denny McCarthy Outright +5500
Thanks and good luck this week!
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