2023 Genesis Invitational Updated Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets for Schauffele, Thomas, Scott, Spieth & More

2023 Genesis Invitational Updated Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets for Schauffele, Thomas, Scott, Spieth & More article feature image

Pictured: Xander Schauffele. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

  • The Action Network's golf betting experts are ready for the 2023 Genesis Invitational with a handful of picks.
  • They identify which players are undervalued and overvalued, along with sleepers and their best bets.
  • Find their picks and analysis for Riviera Country Club below.
Click arrow to expand the Genesis Invitational odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Jon Rahm+750
Rory Mcilroy+850
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Tony Finau+1600
Justin Thomas+1600
Xander Schauffele+1600
Max Homa+1800
Collin Morikawa+2000
Viktor Hovland+2500
Patrick Cantlay+2500
Cameron Young+3000
Sungjae Im+3000
Sam Burns+3300
Jordan Spieth+3500
Will Zalatoris+4000
Tom Kim+4000
Jason Day+4500
Matt Fitzpatrick+4500
Hideki Matsuyama+5000
Tyrrell Hatton+5000
Adam Scott+5000
Keegan Bradley+6000
Rickie Fowler+6600
Taylor Montgomery+6600
Sahith Theegala+7000
Justin Rose+7500
Russell Henley+9000
Alex Noren+9000
Corey Conners+9000
Seamus Power+9000
Wyndham Clark+9000
Tommy Fleetwood+10000
Si Woo Kim+10000
Shane Lowry+10000
Keith Mitchell+10000
Brian Harman+10000
K.H. Lee+12500
Adam Hadwin+12500
Tom Hoge+12500
Patrick Rodgers+12500
Tiger Woods+12500
Lucas Herbert+12500
Billy Horschel+15000
Taylor Moore+15000
Kurt Kitayama+15000
Scott Stallings+15000
Thomas Detry+15000
J.T. Poston+15000
Nick Taylor+15000
Denny Mccarthy+17500
Beau Hossler+17500
Alex Smalley+17500
Adrian Meronk+17500
Joel Dahmen+17500
Luke List+17500
Gary Woodland+17500
Matt Kuchar+20000
J.J. Spaun+20000
Stephan Jaeger+20000
Sam Ryder+20000
Cam Davis+20000
Emiliano Grillo+20000
Jhonattan Vegas+20000
Hayden Buckley+25000
Brendon Todd+25000
Andrew Putnam+25000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+25000
Sepp Straka+25000
Dylan Frittelli+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Nick Hardy+30000
James Hahn+30000
Davis Thompson+30000
Mackenzie Hughes+30000
Francesco Molinari+30000
Justin Suh+30000
Callum Tarren+35000
Aaron Rai+35000
Harris English+35000
Brandon Wu+35000
S.H. Kim+35000
Cameron Champ+35000
Matthew Nesmith+35000
Patton Kizzire+40000
Lanto Griffin+40000
Kevin Kisner+40000
David Lipsky+40000
Peter Malnati+40000
Martin Laird+40000
Greyson Sigg+40000
Ben Taylor+40000
Russell Knox+40000
Matt Wallace+40000
Mark Hubbard+40000
Danny Willett+40000
Adam Schenk+40000
Stewart Cink+40000
Danny Lee+40000
Justin Lower+40000
Lee Hodges+40000
Adam Svensson+40000
Chez Reavie+50000
Keita Nakajima+50000
Troy Merritt+50000
Kevin Streelman+50000
Nate Lashley+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Scott Piercy+50000
Doug Ghim+60000
Chesson Hadley+60000
Adam Long+60000
Luke Donald+60000
Lucas Glover+60000
Michael Thompson+60000
Yeongsu Kim+70000
Doc Redman+70000
Matthias Schwab+70000
J.B. Holmes+70000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Nick Watney+100000
Marcus Byrd+100000
Kramer Hickok+100000
Robert Streb+100000
Tyler Duncan+100000
Kelly Kraft+100000
Austin Smotherman+100000
Chad Ramey+100000
Max Mcgreevy+100000
Jack Wall+100000

The PGA TOUR concludes its West Coast swing with a bang with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.

Our staff has its Genesis Invitational picks ready as 23 of the top 25 players in the world will tee it up in the field this week. Oh, and by the way, Tiger Woods will also be in the field in addition to serving as the tournament host.

Our top golf betting experts break down their best bets along with long shots, contrarian players and biggest busts below.

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Best Long Shot

  • Jason Sobel: Adam Scott
  • Chris Murphy: Taylor Moore
  • Matt Vincenzi: Keegan Bradley
  • Spencer Aguiar: Tommy Fleetwood
  • Nick Bretwisch: Keith Mitchell

Biggest Bust

  • Jason Sobel: Viktor Hovland
  • Chris Murphy: Sungjae Im
  • Matt Vincenzi: Max Homa
  • Spencer Aguiar: Jason Day

Contrarian Player to Target

  • Jason Sobel: Thomas Detry
  • Chris Murphy: Dylan Frittelli
  • Matt Vincenzi: Beau Hossler
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman
  • Nick Bretwisch: Tom Kim

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: What separates Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy right now? Not a whole lot, as the PGA TOUR’s top three are very close in terms of talent, success, etc. I did, however, identify some differentiation in my weekly preview column.

Since the beginning of last year, Scheffler and Rahm have each won five titles – and all of those titles have occurred when they took the previous week off. McIlroy, on the other hand, has a higher win ratio, higher top-10 percentage and higher average finish when he’s played the previous week. If you’re trying to choose an investment between these three, this trend clearly points to Rory.

Murphy: I feel like a broken record early this year, but this is another track where you want some history.

Very few players have done well at Riviera in their debut, and even the ones who have, like Cameron Young, had some prior history around the course like his play in the 2017 U.S. Amateur. This is an old school, thinking man’s course, and players will miss a ton of fairways and greens. The key this week will be knowing where to miss, while also bringing a top tier game from tee to green.

Aguiar: While I am not weighing course history more than I would on a typical week, the expected performances do generate a boost inside of my model when a golfer has shown the propensity to find success in the past at Riviera Country Club.

Part of that reason stems from the fast Poa greens that will enhance the three-putt percentage and around the green importance, and the other portion comes from understanding the ability to know where you can miss and still salvage par.

Bretwisch: Like Spencer, I do respect those who have played well at this track, but it won’t be an end all be all. Players who win this event and grade strongly for me come into this event with strong form off the tee (distance mainly but overall having a positive strokes gained off the tee trend).

I want to pair that with players who excel on approach proximity from 150-200 yards (from both the fairway and non-penal rough) and have the ability to get up and down after missing a green in regulation.

Your Best Bet

Sobel: Adam Scott Top 10 +500

This is simply a situation of class recognizing class. There are few players as classy (on or off the golf course) as Scott and few venues as classy as Riviera. Ever since an unofficial, weather-shortened, 36-hole victory in his initial start here back in 2005, Scott has taken to this track like, well, a duck to water. In 14 career starts here, he owns seven top-10s and four top-twos, if we include that unofficial result.

Some players you can pencil in for a certain tournament annually; other players you can write it down with a Sharpie. That’s the case for Scotty here, as he’s a similarly smart play in DFS and OADs, too.

Murphy: Taylor Moore Top 20 +333 (BetMGM)

We fell just a couple of shots short with my best bet on Hayden Buckley for top 20 last week, but I’ll go back to the well right here. Taylor Moore has quietly put together a really impressive opening stretch to the season and has done it on all types of courses and in some of the best fields we have seen this year. He posted his third consecutive top 15 last week at the WM Phoenix Open and gained more than six shots on that elite field with his ball striking.

I got a chance to watch every shot of his over the weekend as he was a part of the featured groups, and he certainly passed the eye test. Moore now heads to Riviera where he will get to roll it on his preferred poa greens, and it will be his second time at this event after posting a T21 in his debut last year. I’m all in on Moore becoming one of the names to know as the season progresses, and I really like his value at +333 to top 20 on BetMGM, where all ties are paid in full.

Vincenzi: Justin Thomas +1600 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas was my headline bet last week, and despite not winning, he didn't disappoint. In fact, it was an extremely encouraging outing for last year's PGA Championship winner. Thomas finished in solo fourth place and shot an impressive final-round 65.

JT gained 12.1 strokes from tee to green, which was second only to the winner, Scottie Scheffler. He was excellent in all phases of his tee-to-green game, gaining 4.7 strokes off the tee, 4.1 on approach and 3.3 around the green. Thomas putting it all together at TPC Scottsdale is a great sign for his chances at Riviera. The course will demand a well-rounded game from golfers this week, and Thomas is starting to round into peak form.

In addition to his great week in Arizona last week, Thomas has also had a great deal of success at Riviera, and history has shown that players who have a strong track record at the course are more likely to have a repeat performance.

In his past five starts at the Genesis Invitational, Thomas has three top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2019. In that event, JT lost to J.B. Holmes on a windy Sunday when he played 36 holes. The 29-year-old ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 24 rounds at Riviera.

Thomas is trending in the right direction, and all signs point to him finally getting his long-coveted victory in the event that Tiger Woods hosts.

Aguiar: Xander Schauffele +1900 (Bet365)

Xander Schauffele ended up grading as one of only two golfers in this field to break the top 20 of my model for both weighted tee to green and recalculated short-game returns. For those wondering, the other option was Max Homa, the 2021 champion of this event, and it might be time for Schauffele to pencil his name into the winner's circle at an event set up for him to generate high-end returns.

Schauffele cracked the top 10 in six of the seven categories that I ran from a statistical perspective this week. His first-place overall grade when combining three-putt avoidance, putting from 5-10 feet, around the green and putting on fast Poa separated him from most other elite names in this contest.

Bretwisch: Jordan Spieth Top 40 -150 (FanDuel)

I absolutely hate eating the juice on Jordan Spieth here, but this is a pure number grab for me with a player coming off of a form-finding weekend in Phoenix and two top-30 finishes in this event. Despite the low odds, I trust that Spieth found his swing last week, and we’ll continue the successful trends with the driver and the mid-range iron play from all surfaces.

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