2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks & Odds: Bet Stephan Jaeger & Davis Riley

2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks & Odds: Bet Stephan Jaeger & Davis Riley article feature image

Via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephan Jaeger (right) & Davis Riley (left).

Click to expand Sanderson Farms Championship Odds via bet365
GolferSanderson Farms Championship Odds
Ludvig Aberg+1300
Stephan Jaeger+1900
Eric Cole+2200
Emiliano Grillo+2800
Lee Hodges+3000
Beau Hossler+3000
Keith Mitchell+3200
Lucas Herbert+3200
S.H. Kim+3200
Adam Svensson+3600
Alex Smalley+3700
Garrick Higgo+3700
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+4500
Davis Thompson+4500
Hayden Buckley+4500
Davis Riley+4500
Doug Ghim+5000
Callum Tarren+5000
Sam Ryder+5000
Luke List+5000
Sam Stevens+5000
Nicholas Lindheim+5500
Ben Griffin+5500
Tom Hoge+6000
Nick Hardy+6000
Kevin Yu+6000
Akshay Bhatia+6500
Dylan Wu+6500
Mark Hubbard+7000
Alex Noren+7000
MJ Daffue+7500
Erik van Rooyen+7500
Mackenzie Hughes+8000
Peter Kuest+8000
Kevin Streelman+8500
Brandon Wu+8500
Peter Malnati+9000
Nate Lashley+9000
Cameron Champ+9000
Greyson Sigg+9500

GolferSanderson Farms Championship Odds
Chad Ramey+10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
David Lipsky+11000
Chez Reavie+11000
Sam Bennett+11000
Andrew Novak+11000
Matthew NeSmith+11000
Carson Young+12000
Ryan Palmer+12000
Will Gordon+12000
Chesson Hadley+12000
Harry Hall+12000
Trey Mullinax+12000
Vince Whaley+12000
Martin Laird+14000
Troy Merritt+14000
C.T. Pan+14000
Robby Shelton+14000
Justin Lower+14000
Tyler Duncan+16000
Ben Martin+17500
Patton Kizzire+18500
Joel Dahmen+20000
Zac Blair+20000
Lanto Griffin+20000
Jimmy Walker+20000
Zecheng Dou+20000
Seung Yul Noh+20000
Ryan Gerard+22500
Matti Schmid+22500
Henrik Norlander+22500
Austin Smotherman+22500
Russell Knox+22500
Charley Hoffman+22500
Carl Yuan+22500
Trevor Cone+22500
Ross Steelman+22500
Matthias Schwab+22500

GolferSanderson Farms Championship Odds
Ryan Moore+25000
Doc Redman+25000
Kevin Tway+25000
Adam Long+30000
Scott Piercy+30000
Augusto Nunez+30000
Ben Taylor+30000
Kevin Kisner+30000
Harry Higgs+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Jason Dufner+35000
Kramer Hickok+35000
Brandt Snedeker+35000
Brice Garnett+35000
Hank Lebioda+35000
Ryan Armour+35000
Tano Goya+35000
Kevin Chappell+35000
Cody Gribble+35000
Brent Grant+35000
Kevin Roy+40000
Kelly Kraft+45000
Scott Harrington+45000
Satoshi Kodaira+45000
Chris Stroud+45000
Sean O'Hair+45000
Cameron Percy+45000
Harrison Endycott+45000
Richy Werenski+45000
D.J. Trahan+60000
Tyson Alexander+60000
Austin Cook+60000
Jonathan Byrd+60000
William McGirt+60000
Wesley Bryan+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Sung Kang+60000
Camilo Villegas+60000
Dylan Frittelli+60000
Jonas Blixt+60000
Martin Trainer+60000
Ryan Brehm+60000
Andrew Landry+60000
Chris Baker+60000
Brett White+60000

GolferSanderson Farms Championship Odds
Paul Haley II+75000
Michael Gligic+100000
Jim Herman+100000
Brandon Matthews+100000
Trevor Werbylo+100000
Max McGreevy+100000
Scott Brown+100000
Ted Potter Jr+100000
Zack Fischer+100000
Brian Gay+125000
Brian Stuard+125000
Fred Biondi+125000
Tommy Gainey+125000
Ben Crane+200000
Ricky Barnes+200000
Nick Watney+200000
Greg Sonnier+250000
Ford Clegg+250000

Welcome to the latest edition of golf-never-ever-ever-stops, as we’re collectively still trying to get over the Ryder Cup hangover while the PGA Tour is already hosting its next event, the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship.

I’m going to keep this intro super-short, because, you know, hangover and all, but it’ll be nice to get back to a sport where players don’t slide down on the 2-yard-line near the end of the game instead of just jogging into the end zone to cover the spread.

(Hi Patrick! Thanks for reading!)

This week’s favorite is Ludvig Aberg, the only player who competed in the Ryder Cup and might still be riding a less figurative kind of hangover after spending Sunday night with his European teammates.

There should be zero culture shock in traveling from Italy to Mississippi, as Jackson is often called the “Rome of the South” (at least, I think I read that somewhere).

Alright, with that fool’s gold nugget rattling around in your mind, let’s get on to the picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

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Sanderson Farms Championship Outright Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Stephan Jaeger (+2200)

It’s funny: Before the odds were released for this event, I was leaning toward either Stephan Jaeger or Keith Mitchell. Then the prices came out, and they were exactly the same.

Okay, so maybe it’s not that funny, but Jaeger is a guy whose game should really fit this golf course. He’s had an extremely high floor over the past six months, making the cut in 14 straight starts and finishing in the top 30 in nine of them.

My one criticism really isn’t about Jaeger himself, but his odds, as I feel like he’s consistently listed at an outright number that’s too short for a player who hasn’t displayed a massive ceiling during this recent run, with his best finish being a T9.

For example: At the Fortinet Championship a few weeks ago, with the likes of Max Homa, Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala in the field, he was a mere 20/1, which wasn’t that appealing because more of his success has come in the Southeast than the West Coast.

This week, though, I’m willing to make a play on that consistency resulting in an inevitable ceiling.

Pick: Stephan Jaeger Outright +2000
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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Davis Riley (+5500)

Full disclosure: I had originally listed Grayson Murray in this spot, with the caveat that he owns a high ceiling but very low floor, as exemplified by his recent Korn Ferry Tour victory that was followed by an opening-round withdrawal the very next week.

Well, at least he did us the favor of withdrawing before the tournament this time, so I'll pivot to Davis Riley, a Mississippi native who should have plenty of the home fans in attendance this week.

The highly touted youngster won the Zurich Classic alongside Nick Hardy this year, but it came in the midst of a bunch of missed cuts. Since then, he's improved a bit – at least in performance, if not results – and last year's T19 at this event suggests he enjoys being back in his home state.

This is less of a play on form, though, and more of a play on overall talent. According to the archive at golfodds.com, three of the last four Sanderson Farms winners have held opening odds of 50/1 or longer, so it makes some sense to take a shot in this price range.

Pick: Davis Riley Outright +5500

One-And-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Ludvig Aberg (+1000)

There’s a nonzero chance that the Oh-Bear, full of piss and vinegar after helping Europe to a Ryder Cup victory, does his thing this week and wins by six.

I think there are too many variables – from off an exhausting week, playing an event for the first time – to play him at such a short outright number, but if you’re in an OAD that’s already begun and don’t want to spend too much time overthinking, Ludvig Aberg is the no-brainer play.

Keith Mitchell (+2200)

As stated above, Keith Mitchell was one of my favorite plays before the odds were released. As an unabashed fan of his game, I still don’t mind taking a chance here, but his value probably comes in formats where we can bank on his floor being higher against an inferior field.

Matthew NeSmith (+10000)

I’m also a big fan of Matthew NeSmith’s game. A very good iron player who can pop up on the leaderboards when the putter is cooperating, he’s coming off a disappointing year, but this is the time on the schedule to make up for those prior disappointments after finishing T9 here last year.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish top in the top five

Alex Smalley (+800 for Top-five Finish)

If this was a decade ago, before betting and DFS had become so much more mainstream, Alex Smalley would’ve been a guy you might’ve heard a little about but weren’t really following.

Once we start investing our time and money into the product, though, we start learning more about players beyond the superstars, and we’ve learned that Smalley has the game to contend at this level, especially against this type of field.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Sam Ryder (+500 for Top-10 Finish)

I don’t know why, but I was thinking about Sam Ryder a lot this past weekend. It was almost like I was seeing him everywhere I looked. Call this one an osmosis play, but with strong irons (25th in Strokes Gained: Approach) and putting (12th in Strokes Gained: Putting), he could certainly flourish this week.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Jason Dufner (+650 for Top-20 Finish)

Don’t look now, but erstwhile superstar and one-time major champion Jason Dufner has found a little something lately, with four finishes of 31st or better in his last five starts. The only reason I’m not recommending him for something better than a top-20 finish is that his record is fairly abysmal here, with five MCs in six career starts.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Greyson Sigg (+150 for Top-30 Finish)

A share of ninth place at this event last year should give Greyson Sigg some good vibes coming into this one, and while form is a bit fleeting when there have been so few events recently, three top-30 finishes in his last seven starts at least suggest that he’s been playing some decent golf.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Jonathan Byrd (+300 for Top-40 Finish)

Consider this a leap of faith, as Jonathan Byrd has missed the cut in six straight starts, but on a shorter course in the Southeast, the 45-year-old can still get his ball around and post some scores. He owns eight top-40s in 12 career starts at this event.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Eric Cole

If you believe that Aberg won’t be prepared to play his best golf this week, then Eric Cole makes the most sense here. He won’t be given his Rookie of the Year award until the fall portion of the schedule is completed, but he’s a lock to win it, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s a PGA Tour winner by the time he does.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Sam Bennett

I considered Sam Bennett for my favorite longshot outright play above at 75/1. The talent is there, but his results have shown he’s more likely right now to step up and play well in a bigger event than take advantage of a weaker field and contend for a title. That said, I still like him this week based on talent alone and can’t imagine he’ll be owned too much in DFS.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Doc Redman

It’s been a few years since I was driving the Doc Redman bandwagon, and I’ll readily admit that we might’ve careened off the road a few times and lost most of our passengers. The data is still kind of ugly here, and I certainly wouldn’t go all-in, but if there’s a place where he pops again, it should/could be a place such as this.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Andrew Novak (+6600 for FRL)

Here are the top-five golfers this season in Round 1 Scoring Average: Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm. A whole bunch of known commodities and household names.

Andrew Novak is sixth on this list as he averages 68.91 in opening rounds, including a 64 and a 65 in his last five Thursdays.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Alex Noren (+4000)

Nothing should get a former European Ryder Cup player more fired up to play his best golf than watching his team over this past weekend. Alex Noren has proven to be a world-class ball-striker over the years, and while he isn’t performing at the level he once did, it’s still a pretty high level, with four finishes of 38th or better in his last six starts, offering a high floor that’s preferable for these type of head-to-head bets.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Callum Tarren (+5500), Kevin Yu (+6000), Webb Simpson (+7500), Erik Van Rooyen (+8000), Chesson Hadley (+9000), Carson Young (+10000), Ben Martin (+11000), Justin Lower (+13000), Patton Kizzire (+13000)

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