2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks & Odds: Bet Stephan Jaeger & Davis Riley

Welcome to the latest edition of golf-never-ever-ever-stops, as we’re collectively still trying to get over the Ryder Cup hangover while the PGA Tour is already hosting its next event, the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship.

I’m going to keep this intro super-short, because, you know, hangover and all, but it’ll be nice to get back to a sport where players don’t slide down on the 2-yard-line near the end of the game instead of just jogging into the end zone to cover the spread.

(Hi Patrick! Thanks for reading!)

This week’s favorite is Ludvig Aberg, the only player who competed in the Ryder Cup and might still be riding a less figurative kind of hangover after spending Sunday night with his European teammates.

There should be zero culture shock in traveling from Italy to Mississippi, as Jackson is often called the “Rome of the South” (at least, I think I read that somewhere).

Alright, with that fool’s gold nugget rattling around in your mind, let’s get on to the picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

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Sanderson Farms Championship Outright Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Stephan Jaeger (+2200)

It’s funny: Before the odds were released for this event, I was leaning toward either Stephan Jaeger or Keith Mitchell. Then the prices came out, and they were exactly the same.

Okay, so maybe it’s not that funny, but Jaeger is a guy whose game should really fit this golf course. He’s had an extremely high floor over the past six months, making the cut in 14 straight starts and finishing in the top 30 in nine of them.

My one criticism really isn’t about Jaeger himself, but his odds, as I feel like he’s consistently listed at an outright number that’s too short for a player who hasn’t displayed a massive ceiling during this recent run, with his best finish being a T9.

For example: At the Fortinet Championship a few weeks ago, with the likes of Max Homa, Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala in the field, he was a mere 20/1, which wasn’t that appealing because more of his success has come in the Southeast than the West Coast.

This week, though, I’m willing to make a play on that consistency resulting in an inevitable ceiling.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Davis Riley (+5500)

Full disclosure: I had originally listed Grayson Murray in this spot, with the caveat that he owns a high ceiling but very low floor, as exemplified by his recent Korn Ferry Tour victory that was followed by an opening-round withdrawal the very next week.

Well, at least he did us the favor of withdrawing before the tournament this time, so I'll pivot to Davis Riley, a Mississippi native who should have plenty of the home fans in attendance this week.

The highly touted youngster won the Zurich Classic alongside Nick Hardy this year, but it came in the midst of a bunch of missed cuts. Since then, he's improved a bit – at least in performance, if not results – and last year's T19 at this event suggests he enjoys being back in his home state.

This is less of a play on form, though, and more of a play on overall talent. According to the archive at golfodds.com, three of the last four Sanderson Farms winners have held opening odds of 50/1 or longer, so it makes some sense to take a shot in this price range.

One-And-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Ludvig Aberg (+1000)

There’s a nonzero chance that the Oh-Bear, full of piss and vinegar after helping Europe to a Ryder Cup victory, does his thing this week and wins by six.

I think there are too many variables – from off an exhausting week, playing an event for the first time – to play him at such a short outright number, but if you’re in an OAD that’s already begun and don’t want to spend too much time overthinking, Ludvig Aberg is the no-brainer play.

Keith Mitchell (+2200)

As stated above, Keith Mitchell was one of my favorite plays before the odds were released. As an unabashed fan of his game, I still don’t mind taking a chance here, but his value probably comes in formats where we can bank on his floor being higher against an inferior field.

Matthew NeSmith (+10000)

I’m also a big fan of Matthew NeSmith’s game. A very good iron player who can pop up on the leaderboards when the putter is cooperating, he’s coming off a disappointing year, but this is the time on the schedule to make up for those prior disappointments after finishing T9 here last year.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish top in the top five

Alex Smalley (+800 for Top-five Finish)

If this was a decade ago, before betting and DFS had become so much more mainstream, Alex Smalley would’ve been a guy you might’ve heard a little about but weren’t really following.

Once we start investing our time and money into the product, though, we start learning more about players beyond the superstars, and we’ve learned that Smalley has the game to contend at this level, especially against this type of field.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Sam Ryder (+500 for Top-10 Finish)

I don’t know why, but I was thinking about Sam Ryder a lot this past weekend. It was almost like I was seeing him everywhere I looked. Call this one an osmosis play, but with strong irons (25^th in Strokes Gained: Approach) and putting (12^th in Strokes Gained: Putting), he could certainly flourish this week.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Jason Dufner (+650 for Top-20 Finish)

Don’t look now, but erstwhile superstar and one-time major champion Jason Dufner has found a little something lately, with four finishes of 31^st or better in his last five starts. The only reason I’m not recommending him for something better than a top-20 finish is that his record is fairly abysmal here, with five MCs in six career starts.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Greyson Sigg (+150 for Top-30 Finish)

A share of ninth place at this event last year should give Greyson Sigg some good vibes coming into this one, and while form is a bit fleeting when there have been so few events recently, three top-30 finishes in his last seven starts at least suggest that he’s been playing some decent golf.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Jonathan Byrd (+300 for Top-40 Finish)

Consider this a leap of faith, as Jonathan Byrd has missed the cut in six straight starts, but on a shorter course in the Southeast, the 45-year-old can still get his ball around and post some scores. He owns eight top-40s in 12 career starts at this event.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Eric Cole

If you believe that Aberg won’t be prepared to play his best golf this week, then Eric Cole makes the most sense here. He won’t be given his Rookie of the Year award until the fall portion of the schedule is completed, but he’s a lock to win it, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s a PGA Tour winner by the time he does.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Sam Bennett

I considered Sam Bennett for my favorite longshot outright play above at 75/1. The talent is there, but his results have shown he’s more likely right now to step up and play well in a bigger event than take advantage of a weaker field and contend for a title. That said, I still like him this week based on talent alone and can’t imagine he’ll be owned too much in DFS.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Doc Redman

It’s been a few years since I was driving the Doc Redman bandwagon, and I’ll readily admit that we might’ve careened off the road a few times and lost most of our passengers. The data is still kind of ugly here, and I certainly wouldn’t go all-in, but if there’s a place where he pops again, it should/could be a place such as this.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Andrew Novak (+6600 for FRL)

Here are the top-five golfers this season in Round 1 Scoring Average: Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm. A whole bunch of known commodities and household names.

Andrew Novak is sixth on this list as he averages 68.91 in opening rounds, including a 64 and a 65 in his last five Thursdays.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Alex Noren (+4000)

Nothing should get a former European Ryder Cup player more fired up to play his best golf than watching his team over this past weekend. Alex Noren has proven to be a world-class ball-striker over the years, and while he isn’t performing at the level he once did, it’s still a pretty high level, with four finishes of 38^th or better in his last six starts, offering a high floor that’s preferable for these type of head-to-head bets.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Callum Tarren (+5500), Kevin Yu (+6000), Webb Simpson (+7500), Erik Van Rooyen (+8000), Chesson Hadley (+9000), Carson Young (+10000), Ben Martin (+11000), Justin Lower (+13000), Patton Kizzire (+13000)