2023 Open Championship First Look & Odds: Picks for Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau & Corey Conners

The Genesis Scottish Open was everything we could have asked for (outside of some wonky TV coverage) leading into the final major championship of 2023. Tyrrell Hatton had me thinking we were set for another Sunday come-from-behind victory at a big number before he stumbled down the back nine holes and Robert MacIntyre walked through the door to take the lead.

The Scot put his name in the conversation with an eagle on the par-5 10th and made an incredible birdie at the 18th to seemingly seal at least a playoff for him in his home open. Unfortunately for MacIntyre, Rory McIlroy did the improbable as he tied the lead with a birdie on the difficult par-3 17th. He then went to the most difficult hole of the day at 18 and made a birdie of his own to take the win.

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McIlroy finally broke through after two months of elite play and top-10 finishes to capture his first PGA win of the year. The victory vaulted him firmly to the top of the odds board for this week's major at the site of his Open Championship win from 2014 at Royal Liverpool.

His odds are currently as low as +650 on some books with Scottie Scheffler right behind him after another top-three finish of his own. The rest of the field will benefit as even Masters champion Jon Rahm has drifted out to +1200 in many places.

There are certainly a lot of reasons to be interested in the top two players as they are playing some of the best golf in the world, but they are at numbers that won't put them in consideration for me this week.

There are just too many high-quality players in this major championship for me to grab one of them at such low numbers. I'll be looking further down the board and already have some numbers I like as we head into one of my favorite majors of the year.

First Look

Collin Morikawa +3500 (FanDuel)

I keep chasing that next Morikawa win and I will do so again this week at Hoylake. He's been trending in the right direction over the past couple of months, with his peak coming his last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he lost in a playoff to Rickie Fowler.

The first key for Morikawa is always the ball striking — he has gained three or more shots on approach in seven of his last eight measured events and has matched it with more than two strokes gained off the tee in each of his past three tournament appearances.

The ball striking is at a place where I feel comfortable that he can get back to his form of being in contention any week he brings the putter with that Strokes Gained: Tee to Green game. That was the case in Detroit, as he gained more than three shots on that field putting and it had him right there for a chance to win.

I love that we have that all trending the right way as he heads into the tournament that was his last win, when he captured the Claret Jug two years ago.

Pick: Collin Morikawa Outright

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Tony Finau +6000 (PointsBet)

We have seen a decline in play from Finau since his win in Mexico earlier in the year. He has simply struggled, failing to secure a top-20 finish in any of his six tournaments since that victory.

I am ignoring all of that and instead taking a great number on a player who is elite when he is on his game. He isn't someone who required top-level form coming into his prior wins.

Finau has also had plenty of success around this major championship with four top 20s, including two inside the top nine. The upside at a number like +6000 is immense on a player of his caliber, and to me it's completely worth the risk of the Finau who missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage showing up this week at Royal Liverpool.

Pick: Tony Finau Outright

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Corey Conners +10000 (bet365)

There are very few players in the world who are better ball strikers when on top of their game than Corey Conners. The Canadian showed that play can travel even in the links-style winds as he posted the second-best round of the day in the difficult Sunday conditions in Scotland.

His four-under round saw him more than three-and-a-half shots better than the field Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and he also gained more than two shots with his putter. I expect him to be riding high with confidence after that round.

If he can bottle that play into Hoylake, he has shown an ability to contend in even the best fields. I'll happily take the combination of momentum, form and triple-digit odds on a player who has already won on Tour this season.

Pick: Corey Conners Outright

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