2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Updated Odds: Tony Finau Favored to Repeat

2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Updated Odds

Find updated 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Updated Odds and a course preview for Vidanta Vallarta below.
Odds via bet365.

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2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds

The PGA Tour heads to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta. This is the eighth tournament of the 2024 PGA Tour season, and all seven past outright winners have been priced at least at 80-1 odds.

Tony Finau will look to end the streak of longshot winners this week as the defending 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta champion is the outright betting favorite at +850 at bet365 after opening at +700. The Mexico Open at Vidanta has been a PGA Tour event for just two years, and Finau has excelled in those two tournaments as he won last year and finished in a tie for second in 2022.

Because 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta winner Jon Rahm has defected the PGA Tour for LIV Golf, no one in the field this week will have beaten Finau at Vidanta Vallarta. Finau is coming off of a tie for 19th at The Genesis Invitational this past weekend, and his best result in five PGA Tour starts this season is a tie for sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Nicolai Højgaard also posted a strong result at the Farmers Insurance Open last month when he finished in solo second place, and he is second in the outright betting market this week with +1700 odds after opening at +1900.

The Danish bomber is coming off of a T39 at The Genesis Invitational and won six starts ago in November at the DP World Tour Championship, where he held off the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Rahm to win. Højgaard finished in a tie for 33rd in the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta as he gained strokes on approach and off the tee but lost strokes both on and around the greens.

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Emiliano Grillo was the third and final golfer with outright odds of 23-1 or shorter when he opened at +2200 at bet365, but he has since drifted to +2700. The Argentinian is coming off of a T44 at The Genesis Invitational but has played well at Vidanta Vallarta after finishing in a tie for fifth last year tying for 33rd in 2022.

Some other notables in the field this week and their outright odds include Stephan Jaeger (+2400), Thomas Detry (+2700), Alejandro Tosti (+6500), Michael Kim (+6000) and Charley Hoffman (+8000).

2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Course Preview

Vidanta Vallarta is a 7,456-yard par-71 designed by Greg Norman that features slow and sticky Paspalum greens. The course meanders around the Ameca River with views of the Sierra Madre Mountains.

The generous fairways with an average width of 41 yards give an advantage to the bombers this week, which explains why books expect Finau and Hojgaard to be the class of this field. There are four par-5s on the course (three on the back nine), and the seventh hole is also a drivable par-4. There are also five par-3s at Vidanta Vallarta, and all five play at least 170 yards.

Historically, over 60% of approach shots come from over 175 yards, so golfers will need to be strong on approach with their mid and long irons at Vidanta.

Because this is such a long course with generous fairways, Strokes Gained (SG): Off the Tee is more correlated with SG: Total at Vidanta than at an average PGA Tour course. Additionally, Driving Distance also sees a boost in relation to SG: Total while Driving Accuracy has a decrease in its correlation with SG: Total.

Strokes Gained (SG): Approach and SG: Putting have been the most correlated metrics with SG: Total at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

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Mexico Open at Vidanta Past Winners

Tony Finau is the only past winner of the Mexico Open at Vidanta who is in the field this week. This tournament dates back to 1944 when it was first played at Club de Golf Chapultepec, and it has been a PGA Tour event since 2022.