It was a very good week of matchups at Pebble Beach, including Sepp Straka getting past Keegan Bradley in the head-to-head that I featured for this article. In total, we went 10-2-2 for the week on matchups, which landed us over 10 units of profit.
It is why I always try to stress to everyone that the majority of your exposure should come from sectors like matchups, placements or various props. Hitting an outright bet is extremely tough and can sometimes be a strategic exercise in futility.
The names you talk about can find success, but a lot of the pure upside marks we try to hit are like chasing your tail. You might eventually catch it, but it doesn't do much more than showcase that you are a lunatic in trying to do the nearly impossible.
I am going to demonstrate that erratic behavior by talking about more outright bets in this article, but if you ever have any questions about a tournament, please hit me up on Twitter @TeeOffSports. I am more than happy to answer any questions you may have about a betting board.
2026 Genesis Invitational Odds, Predictions: PGA Picks From Proven Model
Outright Winners
Tommy Fleetwood 23/1
Whether this opinion is right or wrong remains to be seen, but my data would suggest the PGA Tour has a big three in Scheffler, McIlroy, and Fleetwood, rather than just a big two in Scheffler and McIlroy.
The math I run always shows Scheffler in his own class, and McIlroy and Fleetwood as very similar to one another. Upside grades for Fleetwood have continued to close that gap over the past six months, and there is a reason Fleetwood ranks as the second-best total strokes gained option in my model since 2025.
I am going to continue betting him at these prices until my math gives me a reason to stop.
Patrick Cantlay 33/1
Chasing your tail makes you a lunatic. My incessant need to back Patrick Cantlay makes me something far beyond that answer.
I am not even going to try to convince anyone to make this wager with me. We have all been down this path one too many times. It sometimes even ends with a Saturday-night lead at the Genesis in 2024, only to get derailed by a poor Sunday round. There isn't a golfer whom I have lost more money backing than Cantlay.
Public narrative shifted his price higher than it should have been when he opened in the 30s. The course history has back-to-back top-five finishes. The form this year looks good. He ranks second in my "Course Fit" portion of the model.
I know that won't convince anyone to tail him, but I am a stubborn person who continues to trust this mathematical return that never seems to come to fruition. Maybe one day it will, and I can be even after backing him incorrectly over all these years. I just think a price in the 30s on a Poa course in California has overly influenced by public bias.
Harris English 50/1
I've said this frequently over the years when talking about the impact of how someone fits or doesn't fit a particular venue, yet manages to perform in a different projection range than my model thought would be the case for that event.
My math last week had Robert MacIntyre, J.J. Spaun, Harris English, Michael Thorbjornsen, Chris Gotterup and Cameron Young as the six most overpriced golfers on the slate at Pebble. You end up with a 10-2-2 sort of week when you correctly pinpoint the fade candidates, but there are two very interesting marks to mention from that list that could help find value at the Genesis.
Of those names listed above, only Harris English finished in the top 35 of the leaderboard. It did take a 72nd hole eagle to get there and generate a tie in one of my matchups against Jason Day. However, that over-performance at a course that didn't necessarily suit his game starts to highlight a golfer in quality form if the data can look better for this go-around.
Funny enough, four of those five names in the contest this week popped pretty massively for me in my sheet. I remain under the lens that Spaun is boom-or-bust and isn't worth considering in safer markets like a matchup, but I could make a strong argument for Young, Gotterup, MacIntyre, or English, with English being the name I decided to back here at 50/1 odds.
Matchups
Maverick McNealy -120 over Jordan Spieth
There are a handful of golfers this week that I am looking to take on in matchups. You have an eclectic group of names that may present this boom-or-bust nature. However, the one that my model thought was the biggest up-or-down option to oppose was Jordan Spieth. Go figure that a model would believe Spieth is nearly impossible to predict.
That answer raises some concerns, since upside could play in a tournament with a fringe cut. We will see this 72-man field get whittled down to the top-50 and ties after Friday, but Spieth profiles as an option who has virtually no floor and is always susceptible to a round of pure chaos.
My model ranked Spieth outside of the top 50 of this field for Weighted Strokes Gained Total. What that essentially means is that the dispersion marks for top-10 performers at the course over the last five years don't view him as a naturally great course fit based on his two-year data sample.
That number does rise about 15 spots when using only 2026. Still, I believe this is one of those situations where Maverick McNealy's safety and Poa acumen should play nicely in a matchup that is going to overrate Spieth from his performance at Pebble Beach.
My model thought Spieth should have been 55th on the leaderboard entering round four (he was 12th). We eventually saw him slip to 29th and perform closer to his projections for the week, which pushed me to back McNealy, who ranked inside the top-40 across all seven main statistical categories I ran for Riviera Country Club.
We might have to sweat this for four days, but I am hoping McNealy's safety shines through against a boom-or-bust opponent.
As always, these numbers are subject to move throughout the week. A lot of the totals shift fast after they are released on Monday.
