The third Signature Event of the 2026 PGA Tour season commences Thursday with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando, Florida.
While many of the top golfers in the world vie for the year's third Signature Event title, there are more ways to bet the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday. For more instant gratification, we turn to the First Round Leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader picks and bets for Thursday.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational: First Round Leader Picks, Bets
Si Woo Kim +3500 (DraftKings)
After a strong start to 2026 that featured four consecutive top-11 finishes, Si Woo Kim has cooled off slightly over his past two outings. That creates a buy-low opportunity, as his overall profile aligns more closely with his early-season form than his recent results suggest.
Kim also fits well at Bay Hill, where course difficulty forces players to create scoring opportunities around the greens. On the PGA Tour, Kim ranks in the 88th percentile in strokes gained: around the green.
It is therefore not surprising that he finished T19 here last year.
Kim has also been a strong starter this season, ranking 25th on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average.
Cameron Young +3500 (BetMGM)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Cameron Young. Like Kim, Young brings a solid short game to Bay Hill, ranking in the 76th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around the green.
Course length is also a significant factor at Bay Hill. Last season, 20.4% of approach shots came from the 175-200-yard range, nearly 4% higher than any other 25-yard grouping.
Entering this week, Young ranks second on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance. Given those metrics, it is not surprising that he has finished inside the top 13 in two of his past four appearances at this event.
