Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Guide: 5 Picks Our Expert Loves This Week

I hope everyone had a better week than Shane Lowry at the Cognizant Classic. I can make this joke because I had him as my one-and-done pick and in my main DFS lineup. Those two late water balls were costly for both Lowry and myself. I know a lot of the betting community had Nico Echavarria as an outright, so congrats to anyone who backed him.

With that out of the way, let's turn the page.

This might be my favorite stretch of tournaments all year. We have the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, The Players Championship next week, and the Masters in 37 days (yes, I officially have a countdown).

There are 72 golfers set to tee it up at Bay Hill Club & Lodge this week. This is one of the few Signature Events that features a cut. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead will make the cut and play the weekend. This may not seem like a big deal, but the added Friday cut sweat makes the event so much more interesting from a betting and fantasy golf perspective.

Where is the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview: Bay Hill

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a Par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. This is routinely one of the toughest courses on the PGA TOUR. The winning score in the last 5 years has ranged from -5 to -15. The difficulty of the course largely depends on the wind, as the course is exposed to the elements and features water hazards on 9 of the 18 holes. The early forecast doesn't look too bad, but we should have 10+ MPH sustained winds in all four rounds.

The course features fairly narrow fairways (32 yards wide on average) and thick rough (3"). This provides a major benefit to those who can hit the fairway. However, it's not just about accuracy here, as this is one of the longest courses on TOUR. In DataGolf's course fit tool, Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy were both more important here than at an average course. Good drivers of the ball are going to have a big advantage this week.

The greens at Bay Hill are large and feature bermudagrass. They are fairly difficult to hit in regulation, but scrambling hasn't played a huge role in determining a winner. The key to victory here is to strike the ball better than most while also making a lot of putts. Course history has been more predictive at this course than at any other course on TOUR that's not named Augusta National. In other words, those who have played well here tend to keep playing well here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Tommy Fleetwood

+2000 at FanDuel | 5% at Kalshi

After picking up wins at the TOUR Championship and the DP World India Championship late last year, I knew I was going to be betting on Fleetwood a lot in 2026. He now has 8 wins on the DP World Tour and 1 win on the PGA TOUR.

He's off to a strong start this year, posting finishes of T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at Riviera. His statistics show that he has been gaining strokes in all facets of his game, which bodes well on a course like Bay Hill. In addition to his great form, he has an excellent track record at this event, posting 4 top 11 finishes in 9 appearances.

Fleetwood has always played well in Florida and should have a ton of confidence heading into this week.

Ben Griffin

+5500 at bet365 | 2% at Kalshi

If this event was held two months ago, Griffin would be priced in the +2500 to +3000 range. It's funny how expectations shape our view of how well a golfer is playing. Griffin has made all 5 of his cuts this season and has 3 top 30 finishes. While not bad, it's a far cry from his 2025 form where he rattled off 3 wins and a ton of top 10 finishes.

Despite the slow start, I'm still bullish on Griffin this year. He has added distance off the tee, which has allowed him to contend at some of the bigger golf courses. The rest of his game has always been elite. I like the way Bay Hill sets up for his game (solid all-around), and he's 2-for-2 here in cuts made with a T14 finish in 2023. This is a very fair price for the 11th ranked golfer in the world.

Nicolai Hojgaard

+6000 at BetRivers | 2% at Kalshi

Hojgaard has been on my betting card a lot this year. He's an extremely talented young golfer, and his game sets up well for most of the courses on the PGA TOUR. He has yet to win on this side of the pond, but he's already racked up 3 wins on the DP World Tour. He seems poised and ready to break through sooner rather than later.

If you look at his statistics, he's one of the longest drivers of the ball on TOUR, he's an elite iron player, and he's an above-average putter. He's not the best scrambler, but we've seen good ball strikers and putters have a ton of success at Bay Hill over the years. Hojgaard already has 3 top 6 finishes this year, so don't be surprised if he's in the mix on Sunday again. I will note that he's 0-for-2 in making the cut at this event, but he's a much better golfer at this stage of his career.

Pierceson Coody

+6000 at BetRivers | 2% at Kalshi

I've been waiting patiently to bet Coody, and this is finally the week that I hop on board. He's seeing a lot of these courses for the first time, but he finished T14 at this event in 2023. His game has improved in leaps and bounds since then. In 6 starts on TOUR this season, he has 5 top 20 finishes, including a runner-up finish.

He's one of the best drivers of the ball in the field, which sets up well on a course where you have to drive the ball well. His irons have gotten progressively better over the last 12 months, 6 months, and 3 months, which should give him plenty of scoring opportunities. His short game is mediocre, but he's actually been positive around the green and on the green in his 6 starts this year.

Jordan Spieth

+6800 at DraftKings | 2% at Kalshi

What year is it?!

Yes, I am betting on Spieth in 2026. I was not expecting to bet him heading into the week, but after a deeper dive into the numbers, I'm on board. For the first time in a very long time, Spieth is rating out as a positive value in my outright model. That's hard to ignore when he's sitting at +6800.

He hasn't driven the ball too well this year, but his iron play and spike putting seem to be back. These are the exact skills that carried him to so many wins during the height of his powers. He has 3 top 30 finishes in 4 starts this year, and he has 2 top 5 finishes at this event in his last 4 appearances.

When is Arnold Palmer Invitational?

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off on Thursday, March 5, 2026.

• What: 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational
• When: March 5-8, 2026
• Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Par: 72
• Length: 7,466
• Purse: $20 million

Where to Watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational TV Schedule

Round 1: Thursday, March 5

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, March 6

• Live stream: ESPN+ (7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (2 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, March 7

• Live stream: ESPN+ (9 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (12:30 to 2:30 p.m. ET); NBC (2:30 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, March 8

• Live stream: ESPN+ (9 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (12:30 to 2:30 p.m. ET); NBC (2:30 to 6 p.m. ET)

Who is Favored to Win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?

Scottie Scheffler, the world's No. 1-ranked player, is once again a strong favorite this week as he's listed as a +335 favorite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at DraftKings.

Next up on the odds board is Rory McIlroy, who is +890 to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Following McIlroy on the odds board is Tommy Fleetwood at +1650 to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and then Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick, both of whom are +2050.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026: Odds, Favorites

Odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday