Tyler Jacobsma is the founder of Flowframe.xyz, which provides in-depth content and tools for prediction market traders.
Keith Mitchell is trading at 75 cents to make the cut at the Cognizant Classic. His 2026 record is 5-for-5, and his record at PGA National is also 5-for-5. However, the market is pricing his putting stats from the wrong grass, and true probability sits closer
to 86-87%.
The Market
I think this price is too cheap. The true probability sits closer to 86-87%, which gives us about 11-12 cents of an edge on an outcome with multiple reasons pointing in the same direction.
| Position | BUY Mitchell to make the cut YES |
| Fair Value | 75c |
| Fair Value | 86-87c |
| Edge | ~11-12 cents |
| Conviction | 8/10 |
| Key Date | 2026 Cognizant Classic, PGA National, Feb 27 – Mar 2 |
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The Field Fell Apart
The Cognizant Classic is squeezed between two Signature Events, the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last week and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill next week. Signature Events pay $20 million in prize money. The Cognizant Classic pays $9.6 million. The math isn't complicated for the elite players in terms of deciding where to show up.
The 2026 field has no player ranked inside the top 20 in the world. The highest-ranked player is Ryan Gerard at No. 26. Then, on the Monday before the tournament, the field got worse: Adam Scott withdrew, along with World No. 11 Ben Griffin, Genesis Invitational champion Jacob Bridgeman, Michael Kim, Taylor Pendrith, and Patrick Rodgers.
Mitchell is sitting sixth on the outright winner board, despite being ranked 125th in the world. In a healthy full-field event, someone ranked No. 125 doesn't sniff the top of the board.
The field being this shallow doesn't just improve his outright odds, it also directly increases his cut probability.
His 2026 Season
Mitchell hasn't missed a cut in 2026. Every start, every weekend. Five events, five made cuts.
| Event | Finish | R1 | R2 | Score |
| Sony Open | T66 | 71 | 68 | -1 |
| The American Express | T44 | 68 | 64 | -15 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | T11 | 67 | 72 | -12 |
| WM Phoenix Open | T41 | 68 | 71 | -5 |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | T52 | 74 | 67 | -8 |
The market price of 75 cents assumes he misses the cut one out of every four times, but he hasn't done it once this year. His career baseline for non-major events sits at 68-72%, in line with what the market is pricing, but not when you factor in the field and the course context.
What matters most for cut markets isn't finishing position; it's blow-up prevention. In 20 rounds this season, Mitchell has shot above 72 exactly three times. He hasn’t had massive collapse days this year.
The Driving Edge at PGA National
Mitchell ranks fifth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season, gaining +0.969 strokes per round off the tee. His average driving distance is 318.3 yards, 21st on Tour, and he ranked seventh in the same category last season.
This matters at PGA National specifically because the course redesign changed everything. Before 2024, PGA National was a survival test with dormant Bermudagrass, firm conditions, and tight lies. Scrambling was the key skill, and the average winning score from 2006 through 2023 was around -10. In fact, only 11 players total shot -10 or better across those 18 years.
In 2024, the tournament overseeded the fairways with ryegrass and converted the 10th hole from a par 4 to a par 5, bumping par from 70 to 71. The course went from a grind to a scoring paradise almost overnight. Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at -17. Joe Highsmith won in 2025 at -19.
In 2025, 38 players shot -10 or better in a single week.
| Year | Winner | Score | Note |
| 2019 | Keith Mitchell | -9 | Old format, Par 70 |
| 2021 | Matt Jones | -12 | – |
| 2022 | Sepp Straka | -10 | – |
| 2023 | Chris Kirk | -14 | Playoff |
| 2024 | Austin Eckroat | -17 | First year ryegrass & Par 71 |
| 2025 | Joe Highsmith | -19 | Easiest scoring ever |
A soft course that rewards birdie production favors elite ball-strikers over pure scramblers. Mitchell hits it far, hits it straight, and gets into short-iron range on consistently on par 4s.
That's exactly the profile that now works here.
The Grass Switch
This is the main inefficiency in the price.
The PGA Tour just finished its West Coast swing in California and Hawaii on Poa Annua greens. Poa is bumpy, inconsistent, and hard to read late in the day. Mitchell openly struggles with it and his putting stats coming off the West Coast are ugly. In 2019, entering this exact tournament (which he won), he ranked 218th out of 221 players in Strokes Gained: Putting on the West Coast.
Florida plays on Bermudagrass, a completely different surface. Mitchell grew up in Chattanooga, played college golf at Georgia, and lives on St. Simons Island. He practices on Bermuda every day. The statistical split is real and measurable: on all-Bermuda courses, Mitchell averages +0.79 Total Strokes Gained per round.
Prediction markets and casual bettors see his recent results from Pebble Beach and Phoenix, look at the putting numbers, and price him accordingly. They might be extrapolating West Coast Poa performance onto a Florida Bermuda course, and that’s a mistake.
The 2019 win makes the case clearly. He came into that week with the worst putting stats of his season, stepped onto Bermuda, and drained a 15-foot birdie on the 72nd hole to win outright. He's also made a significant equipment change at Pebble Beach, going with a new putter and making some mechanical adjustments.
His Record at This Course
Five appearances. Five cuts. One win.
| Year | Finish | Scores | Total |
| 2019 | WIN | -68-66-70-67 | -9 |
| 2021 | T53 | 69-69-74-71 | +3 |
| 2022 | T9 | 71-70-69-68 | -2 |
| 2024 | T9 | 68-70-69-65 | -12 |
| 2025 | T42 | 64-70-71-71 | -8 |
The 2025 result is the most useful for modeling his floor. The course was playing at its easiest ever, scoring an average 1.74 under par per round, and he still opened 64-70 to clear the cut easily. Finished 42nd, but made the weekend without breaking a sweat.
In 2021, his worst recent result here, he opened 69-69, and still made the cut.
Last year at this event, Mitchell ranked 7th in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee (+0.615) and 12th in SG: Approach (+0.531), posting +0.822 Total SG despite his putting (-0.330) dragging him back. Ball-striking alone was more than enough to secure the weekend.
Risk Factors
Putting goes cold on Bermuda, too
The Bermuda improvement is documented, but it's not guaranteed every week. If he misreads grain on critical holes early, he could find himself on the wrong side of the line.
Wind
PGA National is exposed, especially the Bear Trap. A Friday afternoon tee time into a stiff east wind raises scores across the board and removes some of his iron-play advantage on the par 3s.
Bad Thursday
A first-round 74 or 75 puts him in recovery mode on Friday, where any Bear Trap trouble compounds. He opened 74 at Pebble Beach this year and although his blow-up rate is low, it's possible.
Bottom line
The 75-cent price assumes Mitchell misses the cut one in four times. His 2026 record is 5-for-5. His record at this course is 5-for-5. He's moving from Poa to Bermuda greens, his best surface by a measurable margin. The field lost its top players to withdrawals, and the course redesign rewards his elite driving.
BUY the YES at 75 cents as fair value is 86-87 cents.
