One of the best events of the year on tap this week. The Arnold Palmer Invitational at historic Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando.
What a complete disaster from Shane Lowry last week going double-double to finish his last three holes at PGA National, absolutely throwing away the tournament. That's why golf is the best. Any player in the field can win on any given week. Big congrats to now three-time PGA Tour winner, the Colombian product, Nico Echavarria.
Onto this week…
The way to be successful at Bay Hill is not the easiest. You need to be a complete robot with your driver, being fairly long and very straight. It's going to be a long week if you are not playing out of the fairway as most approach shots come from 175+ yards and the rough is brutally thick, both in the fairways and around the green. Not to mention, the bermuda greens are lightning fast.
My betting edge this week comes from a few key stats.
Strokes Gained Off The Tee: Difficult/Very Difficult
Rory McIlroy once noted, “I saw a stat the other day that this course more than any other one on tour has a correlation between strokes gained off the tee and performance that is higher than anywhere else.”
Top 10 Players This Week (Last 12 Months)
- Chris Gotterup
- Scottie Scheffler
- Collin Morikawa
- Rory McIlroy
- Pierceson Coody
- Corey Conners
- Ludvig Aberg
- Keith Mitchell
- Maverick Mcnealy
- JJ Spaun
Other notables: Kurt Kitayama (11th), Si Woo Kim (16th), Sepp Straka (23rd)
Rank: Approach Proximity 150-175 yards, 175-200 yards, and 200+ yards
Bay Hill is the fourth-toughest track on tour to gain strokes on approach. And it makes sense because 32% of approach shots here come from 200+ yards (all strokes). Long iron play will be paramount.
Top 10 players this week (Last 6 Months)
- Si Woo Kim
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Ryan Fox
- Sepp Straka
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Adam Scott
- Viktor Hovland
- Lucas Glover
- Kurt Kitayama
- Rickie Fowler
Other notables: Scottie Scheffler (20th), Collin Morikawa (23rd), Rory McIlory (26th)
Rank: Around the Green (Proximity To Hole)
The short game remains criminally underrated this week. On a course with four gettable Par 5s and a low-scoring ceiling, elite around-the-green play is the primary engine for scoring. If you aren't saving par or setting up easy birdies near the fringe, you’re falling behind the field
Top 10 players this week
- Rory McIlroy
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Shane Lowry
- Harry Hall
- Scottie Scheffler
- Si Woo Kim
- Collin Morikawa
- Andrew Putnam
Other notables: Kurt Kitayama (17th), Jordan Spieth (22nd), Sepp Straka (30th)
My Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card This Week
1. Top 20 Finish Parlay (incl. ties) +3200
- Tommy Fleetwood -172
- Si Woo Kim -120
- Collin Morikawa -116
- Kurt Kitayama +115
- Sepp Straka +150
2. Top 5 Finish
- Tommy Fleetwood +300
- Sepp Straka +860
- Ryan Fox +1800
3. Top 10 Finish
- Si Woo Kim +205
- Sepp Straka +370
- Ryan Fox +730
4. Long-Shot Outright Winner
- Ryan Fox +14000
5. First Round Leader
- Si Woo Kim +3600
- Ryan Fox +7000
