The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off with its first round on Thursday morning from Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando.
This is a big-time Signature Event with a robust prize pool of $20 million. As such, most of the heavy-hitters are in the field this week, led by No. 1 ranked Scottie Scheffler, who is the favorite this week.
Not far behind him on the odds board this week is Rory McIlroy, followed by Tommy Fleetwood.
The defending champion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational is Russell Henley.
From favorites to long-shots, props, and more, these are our staff's 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets and favorite golf picks.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Cameron Young First Round Leader (+3500)
By Tony Sartori
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Cameron Young. Like Kim, Young brings a solid short game to Bay Hill, ranking in the 76th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around the green.
Course length is also a significant factor at Bay Hill. Last season, 20.4% of approach shots came from the 175-200-yard range, nearly 4% higher than any other 25-yard grouping.
Entering this week, Young ranks second on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance. Given those metrics, it is not surprising that he has finished inside the top 13 in two of his past four appearances at this event.
Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (+2000)
After picking up wins at the TOUR Championship and the DP World India Championship late last year, I knew I was going to be betting on Fleetwood a lot in 2026. He now has 8 wins on the DP World Tour and 1 win on the PGA TOUR.
He's off to a strong start this year, posting finishes of T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at Riviera. His statistics show that he has been gaining strokes in all facets of his game, which bodes well on a course like Bay Hill. In addition to his great form, he has an excellent track record at this event, posting 4 top 11 finishes in 9 appearances.
Fleetwood has always played well in Florida and should have a ton of confidence heading into this week.
Si Woo Kim (-125) Over Cameron Young
I made a very similar argument a few weeks ago when taking Tommy Fleetwood over Cameron Young at Pebble Beach. In fairness, this spot is not quite as good on any level of this discussion, but, like Fleetwood, Kim lands as one of the biggest yearly movers at this tournament compared to past iterations.
Below are the yearly ranks my model had for Kim at this event:
What you are going to see is a very consistent return from his the left column (overall rank, under his name) and his eventual finish for the week (right column).
Kim has transformed himself this week into a pristine course fit after ranking first in Expected Proximity for Bay Hill, and the steady decline for Young (and rather consistent returns for rank versus finish) does show that this might not be the best fit we have seen for him entering the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Please note that all missed-cut performances generate an automatic 80. That does not highlight what place he landed when stretching further.
