It was quite the Players Championship on Sunday, unless you were holding outright tickets on Ludvig Aberg, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Sepp Straka, as I was last week. Getting a winner across the finish line has become more difficult than sneezing with your eyes open.
It was not all negative from a betting perspective. The pre-tournament matchups from my model went 3-2-1 (no thanks to Shane Lowry or Adam Scott). We also experienced a much better success rate on in-tournament plays and overall values in my sheet, but we will eventually see something go through the hoop again, even if it takes holding the entire top five entering the round.
If you would ever like additional thoughts from me throughout the week, please check me out on X @TeeOffSports. I am very thankful for anyone who takes the time to read the work or content I put out weekly, and would not be able to do any of this without YOU. It is a small community in the grand scheme of life, but we are all trying to find positive ROI returns together.
Let's see if we can uncover any findings this week for the Valspar.
2026 Valspar Championship Odds, Predictions: PGA Picks From Proven Model
Corey Conners +3500
There are two core ways that I have always looked at Weighted Strokes Gained numbers for a given course. What that means in simplified terms would be: "I like to run projected outlooks for any given tournament, but use the historical data from within the course to find my recalculated returns."
Return 1 – Weighted Strokes Gained Total
This dives into the long-term outlook from all players who have landed inside the top 10 at a course over the last five years. It uses a statistical profile of which game types have succeeded and expands it to mimic the distribution of scoring marks across the field.
Return 2 – Correlated Weighted Strokes Gained Total
What metrics have been found to be the most repeatable day after day when diving into the leaderboard? Are players who are dominating off the tee able to maintain that form over four days of the contest?
There is a reason Conners (and my other name on this card) were featured twice, but there may not be a player in this field who shows better ball-striking acumen at Innisbrook than Conners. As is always the case, can he make putts? If the answer is no, the upside presents its typical capped self. If the answer is yes, the sky is the limit.
J.J. Spaun +4000
Markets have gotten really efficient over the last few years. We can credit that to the countless sites, content creators, and overall outlets that generate picks and viewpoints at a rate higher than we have ever seen. A lot of that comes down to a newly growing market that once allowed a more niche ability to find edges years ago.
However, money talks when dollars hit the window, and books have the power to stay multiple steps ahead of the general public on pricing. It is the sad truth of the difficult game we all try to play weekly.
I say that when discussing a name like J.J. Spaun, a golfer who started the year with nothing better than a share of 40th at the Sony Open through five events before breaking out of the slump marginally at the Players and landing in 24th place. That result may be encouraging for a golfer who won the U.S. Open last year, but does it warrant top-10 consideration on the betting board when form has been hard to come by in 2026?
A lot of my deeper metrics believe the answer is a definitive yes. Spaun ranks as a top-five long-term producer at courses with similar difficulty and posted nearly six strokes ball-striking at TPC Sawgrass, with almost five of those coming with his irons. My math viewed Spaun as a top-10 driver of the ball on comp courses, and it should be noted that he sees an uptick with the putter on overseeded Bermuda.
It remains to be seen if the putter can cooperate, but it is worth noting that his +1.809 gained at the Players was his first positive output since September.
Alex Smalley +8000
I've quite often said that Alex Smalley's best chance to win a golf tournament will be when it is at a Par 70 versus a Par 72, so why did I find the need to bet him as my first name on the card for a tournament that generates the same number of par-five holes as a Par 72, loses a par-four and adds an additional chance on a par-three location?
In short, this is a profile play on a golfer who has a low floor but a generally high ceiling when we dive into the Weighted Strokes Gained metrics I mentioned above.
Smalley was a massive bright spot on my card last week across all iterations of the head-to-head market, and his output of top-30 grades for driving, approach, and correlated returns helped make him one of only five players to meet the threshold when running the data.
Other Names I Am Backing: Ryo Hisatsune and Matt McCarty
Matchups
Ryo Hisatsune (-110) over Taylor Pendrith
Innisbrook is a course that is extremely difficult to gain strokes off the tee. Accuracy over distance would be your preferred route to target, although I don't even want that to be the negative outlook for Pendrith, who ranks 18th in this field for distance and 78th for accuracy.
In fact, the off-the-tee profile is one of his cleaner returns that we get in my sheet when you consider that the Canadian ranks inside the top-15 of this field at courses with thick touch and/or are considered club-down venues.
Honestly, even the "less-than-driver" moniker is partially obsolete when you consider par-five scoring is one of the more concrete returns, with multiple other locations on the course that will still be a "grip-it-and-rip-it" fest.
All of that makes the Pendrith profile better than my model suggests at first glance. However, you can't exactly turn your head and ignore a golfer who has lost almost 15 strokes putting over his last two tournaments and doesn't exactly scream upside potential with his approach game.
I understand a lot of that contradicts the blind eye I have taken with my outrights and not caring if putts get made. Still, matchups and outrights are not asking the same core requirement, especially when the ball-striking doesn't show up as cleanly for Pendrith as it does for an option like fellow Canadian Corey Conners.
Sure, it presents help for either area if you can overachieve with the flat stick, but Expected Proximity + GIR percentage is a key stat for those looking to locate opportunities over the field.
Both putters leave a lot to be desired, but even a full removal of that leaves this questionable outlook for Pendrith because of the sub-par iron form.
Valspar Championship Kalshi Odds
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