- When looking for longshot bets at the 2018 British Open, I'm foregoing up-and-comers in favor of players with experience.
- Louis Oosthuizen's odds to win are 80-1 (he's 5-1 to finish in the top 10). Both are appealing numbers considering the success he's had in majors.
- Brandt Snedeker has seen his odds plummet (150-1) as he's struggled through injuries, but he's playing better of late, and the bookmakers have yet to adjust.
As we enter the third major of the year, it’s a good time to take a look at how we’ve fared in the 2017-18 golf season. So far in this campaign, I’ve picked nine outright winners in my articles for The Action Network. We’ll try to keep it rolling with this week’s British Open at Carnoustie.
It’s been awhile since we’ve had a truly unexpected winner at The Open Championship.
Zach Johnson was flying under the radar at +8000 when he won the Claret Jug in 2015, but it’s hard to call it a shock when a guy with a green jacket wins another major.
We have to go back to 2010 and 2011 when Louis Oosthuizen and Darren Clarke teed off at around 200-1 to find a triple-digit winner of this event.
We’ve seen other vets on the downside of their careers claim this title at big numbers over the past 20 years. Paul Lawrie and Todd Hamilton were both in their 30s when they took down this title in surprising fashion.
The experience narrative plays well across the board. Unless you’re looking at a future Hall-of-Fame talent such as Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth, young guys don’t win the Open.
So when I’m looking for longshot bets at Carnoustie, I’m steering clear of the up-and-comers and focusing instead on the guys who have weathered the Open wars in the past.
With that said, here are two plays I’ve targeted.
All odds as of Tuesday evening. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price.
Odds to win: +8000 (Bovada)
Oosthuizen has been in every tight situation imaginable in majors. As previously mentioned, he won out of nowhere in 2010. He’s also made a playoff at the Open and the Masters. When Louis is on, he’s capable of winning any tournament, and that’s what I want when backing someone down the board a bit. Along with Bovada, Bookmaker and Sportsbook also have him at +8000, so it’s a number I’m going to be patient with and see if it drifts later in the week. If it starts to head in to the 60s or 70s at one place, I’ll be quick to take the 80-1.
Odds to win: +15000 (Bovada)
Snedeker’s longshot odds are reflective of his play falling off a bit. It wasn’t too long ago that he was in that 50-1 to 66-1 range as a popular mid-tier sleeper in majors. While injuries have derailed him a bit in the past year, Snedeker seems to be finding his stride again, and the books have yet to take notice.
Snedeker has a third- and sixth-place finish in his past four starts. Even more important is the way he picked up that third place at The Greenbrier. Snedeker gained seven strokes with his approach, an area that had really caused him trouble this season. He’s already got an elite short game, so if he can bring that iron play to Carnoustie, then he can compete here.
I like also both of these guys for top 10s, with Oosthuizen coming in at +500 and Snedeker at +800.
More British Open Coverage
- Sobel: Ranking the Entire British Open Field, from 1-156
- Betting the Favorites: The Most Overvalued Golfer on the Board
- 3 Mid-Tier Golfers Peaking at the Right Time
- The Golfers Helped and Hurt by Carnoustie’s Fiery, Testy Conditions
- Henrik Stenson: ‘I’m Not 100 Percent’ for 2018 British Open
- Betting Tips for Golf Majors: Mid-Tier Players Offer Best Values
- Jean Van de Velde and a $17K Score: The Story of the Worst Golf Gambling Beat Ever