British Open Experts Picks: Favorite Bets for Carnoustie

Jul 18, 2018 10:00 AM EDT
  • The British Open starts on Thursday at 1:35 a.m. ET.
  • A few members of our staff provided their favorite bets this weekend for The Open.
  • Brooks Koepka is a popular pick to finish in the top 20, especially since you can get better-than-even odds.

If you’re in the States, set your alarm clocks for 1:35 a.m. ET Thursday for the start of the British Open. You really shouldn’t have any issue getting plenty of rest Wednesday night — one of the worst betting nights of the entire year.

To help get you prepared for the weekend at Carnoustie, we wanted to share a few of our favorite British Open bets. As you’ll see below, a bunch of our experts are very high on Brooks Koepka, while others went with either a prop, matchup or a very un-American future.

Make sure you also check back in later this weekend, as our staff will also offer their favorite wagers ahead of the final day of the tourney on Sunday.

Jason Sobel: Matthew Southgate To Make Cut

Odds: -150

Over the past few days, I’ve ranked the entire field, analyzed the course conditions and offered some longshot bets that could pay off. So I figured I’d go the other way with this one and give you a low-risk option that makes too much sense. You won’t get very good odds on any big-name player to reach the weekend, but you can dig a little deeper and find value.

My favorite pick to make the cut is Southgate, an Englishman who just happened to finish T-12 and T-6 in the past two editions of this event. He’s also in solid form, with a pair of top-25s in his past three starts. It won’t be the sexiest pick you’ll make this week, but if you’re looking for a solid anchor to offer some return on your investment, look no further than Southgate.

Justin Bailey: Tommy Fleetwood Over Jon Rahm

Odds: +115

While I like Rahm, the plus-money on Fleetwood draws me to this matchup. Over the past 75 weeks, Fleetwood boasts a strong 68.8 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score, while hitting 71.5% of his greens in regulation and 68.6% of fairways. Both his GIR and fairways hit trump Rahm’s numbers.

In a tournament with firm and fast fairways, the long hitters won’t have their typical advantage. Fleetwood is also quite familiar with this course: He set the course record at Carnoustie by carding a 63 at the European Tour’s annual Dunhill Links Championship nine months ago.

Peter Jennings: Brooks Koepka T-20 Finish

Odds: +110

My favorite DFS value is Koepka on DraftKings at $9,200. Koepka was golf’s aggregate major champion in 2017, making every cut and shooting 21-under in the majors. He’s coming off a win at the U.S. Open and backed up his quote of being “the most confident player on tour.”

And from a betting perspective, I love Koepka to finish in the top 20 at The Open.

Joshua Perry: Brooks Koepka T-20 Finish

Odds: +110

I can’t pass on Koepka to finish in the top 20 at +110 on Bovada. He’s finished in the top 20 in seven consecutive majors and 11 of the past 13. And in his past two appearances at the Open, he’s finished T-10 and T-6. His odds to win the tournament are in that 20-1 range with the likes of Rahm and Fleetwood, but those two are -110 to break the top 20. So Koepka is getting some top-20 value over players with similar odds to win.

Bryan Mears: Brooks Koepka T-20 Finish

Odds: +110

The dude absolutely raises his game for majors. He also showed no hangover effect last year after his first U.S. Open title, holding a share of the lead at the 2017 British Open before ultimately finishing T-6. At plus-money for a top-20 this week, count me in on the Koepka train.

Drew “The Sleeze” Stoltz: Marc Leishman To Finish 33rd or Better

Odds: -120

For my money, Leishman is one of the best links players in the world. He has posted three top-six finishes in his past four Open Championships. The firmer and faster Carnoustie plays, the more I like Leishman. I fully expect him to finish well inside the top 20.

Colin Davy: Tony Finau To Win 

Odds: +6000

Finau’s body of work this year is that of a top-20 player, and yet his odds never seem to move. Links golf might not look like the perfect fit for him, but a baked-out Carnoustie has the potential to remove a lot of penalty for overhitting fairways and trying to overpower the course. Finau’s style, plus the course conditions, are the definition of high risk, high reward.

Scott Miller: Ian Poulter T-10 Finish

Odds: +550

This feels downright un-American, but Poulter is playing his best golf in years. He has the putting ability to grind out pars and the experience to navigate what are sure to be tough conditions at Carnoustie. The only thing I worry about is his legendary temper derailing him in a pressure-packed environment.

Credit:

© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ian Poulter and caddie James Walton

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