The 2026 Players Championship tees off with its first round on Thursday morning from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Arguably the top non-major tournament of the year, The Players Championship includes a huge prize pool of $25 million. As such, most of the heavy-hitters are in the field this week, led by No. 1 ranked Scottie Scheffler, who is the favorite this week.
Not far behind him on the odds board this week is Rory McIlroy, although as of this writing there is some doubt if he will start the tournament after withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week with a back issue.
McIlroy is the tournament's defending champion.
From favorites to long-shots, props, and more, these are our staff's 2026 Players Championship best bets and favorite golf picks.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: The Players Championship
Cameron Young First Round Leader (+4800)
By Tony Sartori
Cameron Young brings elite driving ability to TPC Sawgrass, ranking in the 96th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee.
Once in position off the tee, success at Sawgrass often depends on short irons and wedge play. Last season, 19% of approach shots came from the 125-150-yard range, the highest distribution of any 25-yard grouping at this course.
Entering this week, Young ranks above the PGA Tour average in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance.
He also enters the tournament in strong form, following a T3 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T7 finish at The Genesis Invitational. That momentum could carry into Thursday’s opening round.
Si Woo Kim Outright Winner (+3000)
Not many golfers have won two PLAYERS Championships in their career, but I could see Kim accomplishing that feat this week. He is playing some of the best golf of his career.
To start the 2026 season, he has 5 top 15 finishes and 2 top 3 finishes. He's one of the best total drivers of the ball in the world, and he's 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2026. He's also excellent around the green.
The putter is always a wildcard, but that's why one of the best tee-to-green golfers in the field is sitting at +3000.
Min Woo Lee Outright Winner (+4800)
By Jake Zach
Min Woo Lee has been a complete weapon off the tee. I like Lee in any tournament moving forward, but especially this week at Sawgrass, a place he has succeeded at with only playing it three times. His best finish was a T6 in 2023.
To win at Sawgrass, you must be hitting fairways to give yourself good looks to his greens given all of the water trouble. Water is on 16 holes at Sawgrass. Players who are elite clubbing down and still getting good distance for seeking accuracy will stay in it.
Lee does this at an extremely high level and I am confident he continues his good play.
Adam Scott (-125) Over Justin Rose
I took a deep dive into both Adam Scott’s and Justin Rose’s profiles leading into this event over the years to see if we could pinpoint any trends.
If this bet is to lose, there is a very poor return within the Rose profile that is signaling more strength than my model may be seeing this week. You will notice that the lead-in form is always a chaotic mess from him. You get made cuts. You get victories. You get everything in between.
However, if you take the five-event lead-in form and just look at ball-striking totals, Rose gaining in that area typically results in a made cut — sometimes a high-end finish. When he is losing, he misses the cut. There really is no in-between with that answer.
The problem I see is that the iron play has been so good this season that it is generating one of the best lead-in form profiles we have seen from him over the last five years. +2.24 strokes gained with his irons over the last five, resulting in +1.42 strokes gained ball-striking during that time. Obviously, if that second number for ball-striking is lower than his strokes gained with his irons, you are getting a negative return with the driver, which, if you do the math, means he is losing 0.82 strokes over the last five events on average per start.
That total is rather consistent with what we get from him each year when he comes to this tournament. Every return has generated between 0.42 and 0.58 of a loss. Technically, you are looking at about 0.30-0.40 strokes worse overall than his average, but I was more alarmed by his short-game metrics that delivered almost 1.5 strokes worse of an answer during that timeframe than his second-worst return. We see that with his negative-1.2 result over the last five events this year versus +0.36 in 2023, an event where he missed the cut.
The upside scares me here, but I thought when you added his downturn in three of the four categories and the immaculate profile to Adam Scott, who has not found much success here recently but used to be the staple of consistency early in his career, you got a matchup that might be a larger discrepancy than books posted at their initial prices.
Scott has gained 4.08 ball-striking per event over the last five tournaments and is bringing one of his best overall golf profiles we have seen from him, including a positive start to the year with his short game.
Scott has been about 3.5 shots better to start this year than Rose — the ball-striking is +2.66 shots better, and the long-term profiles tell a similar story of success when faced with comparable tests. Sure, I am worried Rose pops and turns this into a battle, but even if he does, I am hoping Scott can hold Rose off for four days. There is a reason beyond my bet for why this number has been on the move. I had proper in the -150s.
