2 Matchups Bets To Make For the Charles Schwab Challenge
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Spieth
- Collin Wilson breaks down a two matchups he's betting for this weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.
- Find out which picks he likes for Jordan Spieth vs. Justin Rose and Russell Knox vs. Bubba Watson as the PGA Tour makes its return.
Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, will be the site for the PGA Tour’s return from a three-month break.
In conjunction, the latest Action App update offers tracking of Top 5, 10 and 20 bets for each tour event, in addition to the outright winner and matchup tracking already available. Golf has quickly moved up the ranks of my favorite sports to bet over the past few years.
SPECIAL PROMOS FOR GOLF’S RETURN! Bet $1, Win $50 if Rory makes just ONE birdie … Win $50 if ANY PLAYER makes a birdie on Colonial’s first hole … and more!
Course history, recent form and advanced statistics such as strokes gained will be used with Fantasy Labs data to create my betting card weekly.
Colonial will be tough to handicap this year, as recent form is a question mark for every single golfer — unless you take their word for it on social media.
The Westgate was first to set odds on matchups, overall winner and winning score. The opener of 264.5 immediately caught an Over bet from me in the prop of overall winning score. Since 2011, only four golfers have gone under 265 strokes on this course. Three of those came in 2018, while Jordan Spieth shot 263 in 2016.
Colonial runs just over 7,200 yards with bentgrass greens and tree-lined fairways. This course will favor the surgeons over the bombers off the tee, with more than 50 bunkers and an incredibly tough 247-yard par 3.
Considering these golfers have not played in quite some time, scramble percentage and putting could dictate the winner.
Here are two matchups I’m betting.
Jordan Spieth vs. Justin Rose
The ongoing trend the past 18 months has been to fade Jordan Spieth in every format because the odds have not reflected the results. Since the beginning of 2019, the Dallas native has missed five cuts and finished outside the top 20 in 15 of his last 28 events.
The biggest issue is off the tee box, where he ranks 181st in driving accuracy the past 82 rounds. That has masked a ranking of second in strokes gained putting over the past year and a half.
Spieth has plenty of history at this course in his home Metroplex, finishing top 14 in six of seven tournaments at Colonial.
Making the trip across the pond is Justin Rose, who also has some strong course history here, winning in 2018.
Rose’s price of -140 may be driven by perception of winning on this course just two years ago.
But he has missed three of his last four cuts before the break with a rank of 92nd in strokes gained around the green. He switched clubs, then switched back, and we haven’t seen him get comfortable just yet.
While backing Spieth won’t become a weekly thing for me, fading Rose on the PGA Tour until he is comfortable with his equipment will continue to be a look. I’ll take Spieth at +114.
Russell Knox vs. Bubba Watson
If anyone needed a reset button before COVID-19 stopped sports, it was Knox, who missed four consecutive cuts. Prior to that, the Scotsman had not missed a cut in 11 consecutive events, finishing top 20 in four of them before Pebble Beach on Feb. 19.
A tough way to start the tournament.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 12, 2020
Throughout the drought, Knox maintained a high scramble percentage and ranks 15th in GIR percentage this year. In four tournaments at Colonial, Knox has posted no worse than 24th and finished No. 8 last year.
And experience is something Bubba Watson does not have on his side in Fort Worth.
Watson ranks No. 4 in driving distance but 178th in driving accuracy, more specifically 218th in left rough tendency. That could find him out of bounds often with both par 5’s and all but four par 4’s shading a layout to the right.
Watson last played this event in 2008, accumulating just one birdie, four bogeys and a double. Considering approach to the green is a big component to Colonial, Watson’s strokes gained rank of 136th will have to improve to beat Knox at a rank of 15th on the 2020 season.