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Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 3): Brandt Snedeker vs. Ian Poulter, Round 1

Jan 03, 2019 10:00 AM EST
Credit:

Rob Kinnan, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brandt Snedeker

  • Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
  • In this piece, he looks at the Round 1 head-to-head prop for Brandt Snedeker and Ian Poulter.

I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I will have a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight my favorite prop for the day.

Why Betting on Props Is Fun

In 2018, I bet on thousands of props across a variety of sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, golf (PGA and European Tour) and eSports (League of Legends). I even placed bets on pop culture events, such as the Academy Awards, the Grammy Awards and Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Was I successful with all of them? No. And that’s why I almost never bet on any kind of prop related to darts anymore. Almost never.

But overall I had success last year, and I also had a lot of fun. There are many practical reasons why people should play props. But I honestly play them because they’re fun.

Before 2018, I knew very little about almost every sport outside of the NFL. Now, I still know almost nothing, but I know more than I did, and on a daily basis I enjoyed sweating the individual performances of many players across all sorts of sports.

I’m looking to keep the good times rolling in 2019.

What Tools I Use to Bet Props

Here are the research tools and articles I use to inform my prop-betting decisions.

The FantasyLabs Props Tools: These tools compare our industry-leading projections to the props available in the market and highlight which props offer the most value.

The FantasyLabs Models: Some sportsbooks offer fantasy point props, which I’ve bet successfully using the projections in our daily fantasy models.

The RotoViz Tools: I got my early start in the industry at RotoViz (as did FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales), and RotoViz has a great collection of NFL and NASCAR apps. Here are some of my favorites.

The Action Network Articles: Each day, you can find at least one props piece on The Action Network, most likely written by one of the following contributors.

Approximately 99% of the success I’ve had with prop bets is due to these resources. I suggest you consult them for yourself.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

0-1-0, -1.0 Units

  • NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Thursday, Jan. 3: Brandt Snedeker (-145) vs. Ian Poulter (+125), Round 1 Matchup

The Pick: Poulter (+125)

I’m doubling down on Poulter. He was my pick in yesterday’s piece (Poulter +115 vs. Charles Howell III).

I’ve bet a number of tournament and Round 1 matchup props for the Tournament of Champions, (3 p.m. ET today), so it’s not as if I’m inordinately levered to Poulter in my overall portfolio, but the props market is overlooking him based on the metrics in the FantasyLabs Models. 

Joshua Perry highlights Poulter in his Tournament of Champions betting preview, and I think he provides value here.

Snedeker is not a pushover, but Poulter has the superior long-term adjusted round score (69.2 vs. 69.7), greens-in-regulation percentage (67.9% vs. 65.4%), driving accuracy (63% vs. 62.8%) and scrambling rate (59.9% vs. 58.6%).

Last year I had success in Round 1 matchups by simply betting at plus odds the golfers who had better long-term marks in the FantasyLabs Models. That’s what I’m doing here.

I’d be willing to bet it to +100.

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