The Memorial Betting Picks and Preview: Cantlay, Hadwin Provide Value at Very Different Odds (June 3-6, 2021)
Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Hadwin
There wasn't all that much to report from Colonial. We ended up with four players inside the top-20 but it was a two-horse race on Sunday between Jason Kokrak and Jordan Spieth.
So we move on to Jack's tournament at The Memorial. The winner here usually has a strong pedigree, though there was a two-year blip where David Lingmerth and William McGirt went back-to-back at 400/1 and 200/1, respectively.
The Course
Muirfield Village has been the host of The Memorial since 1976, so it’s one of the more familiar stops on the PGA TOUR. Last year, it hosted events in back-to-back weeks, won by Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm.
Right after those two events the course was renovated with completely new greens. It also will play longer, clocking in at nearly 7,500 yards for a par 72. The fairways and bunkers were all rebuilt as well, and a few holes will have new teeing ground and bunker complexes. So, while we do have few decades of history to use here, the changes can throw a wrench into things.
The added length may make people think distance will trump all, but the rough and water hazards still make precision off the tee important. Success has typically come from players with strong all-around games like the two winners we saw last year, Morikawa and Rahm, along with previous champ Patrick Cantlay. Justin Rose and Hideki Matsuyama have also put together good track records here.
Those guys are all solid off the tee, but outside of Rahm, I wouldn’t really classify them as bombers. Even Matt Kuchar has figured out how to plot his way to a win and a handful of top-five finishes at Muirfield Village.
Distance helps as always, but not at the expense of accuracy and players usually need to find a happy medium between the two.
The Favorites
The defending champ, Jon Rahm, opens as the favorite at +1000. Rahm didn't have much of track record here prior to his win, but he enters in solid form with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts.
Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau are next up at +1400. Of that trio, only Bryson has won here. But the results have been mixed for all three. Rory has three top-10 finishes in eight starts, but has also missed the cut twice. Outside of the win, Bryson hasn't finished inside the top-20 in three other appearances. Spieth has played nine times here, counting both tournaments a year ago, but has just two top-10 finishes.
Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa come in next at +1600. These two met in a playoff last year at Muirfield Village, with Morikawa coming out on top to win the Workday Charity Open.
Viktor Hovland closes out this portion of the odds board at +1800. Hovland was third on this course last year, four back of the Thomas/Morikawa playoff.
Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau make up the +2000s range. Cantlay and Hideki enter in solid form and have won here before, so they could be popular plays this week. Finau and Schauffele have strung together good results recently here, even if they haven't really been in contention. Xander has been inside the top-15 in three straight starts. Finau has four top-15s in six starts.
I'll take a rare stab at the top here with Cantlay at +2200 on BetMGM. I'll keep an eye throughout the week to see if a bigger number pops up on him, but that's where I'll start my card.
Outside of the win, he's got a seventh and fourth here as well. He struck the ball really well at the PGA Championship, but just looked lost on the greens. Hopefully, coming back to a more comfortable course will be the remedy to get him back on track.
The Mid-Tier
I'll kick off this range by going back to Charley Hoffman one more time at +5500. Hoffman is in some great form right now with six straight top-20s, including a third-place finish at Colonial last week. He's also coming off a seventh-place finish here last season, so the course should fit his game.
I'll also back Emiliano Grillo again at +7500. Grillo was on the card last week and finished eighth. He's also had a good run at the Memorial before, finishing inside the top-25 in three of four starts prior to MCs in both events last year.
Grillo obviously needs the putter to cooperate to really contend, but we've seen players who struggle on the greens like Morikawa and Matsuyama come out on top here.
The Longshots
I'll take a chance down here on Adam Hadwin at +16000. He's been struggling recently, but he looked to find something with an eighth-place finish at Colonial last week. He's gained on approach in four of his last five starts and has got back to being around field average off the tee. His record here is spotty at best, but an 11th in 2016 shows that if the game is right, he's capable of playing well here.
The Memorial Card
- Patrick Cantlay +2200 (1.5 units)
- Charley Hoffman +5500 (.6 units)
- Emiliano Grillo +7500 (.44 units)
- Adam Hadwin +16000 (.21 units)
Total Stake: 2.75 units
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