THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks for Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Jason Day & More

THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks for Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Jason Day & More article feature image

Via Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Billy Horschel of the United States prepares to play an approach shot on the sixth hole during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Golf Course on March 02, 2023 in Orlando, Florida.

Click arrow to expand THE PLAYER Championship odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Rory McIlroy+900
Jon Rahm+1000
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Patrick Cantlay+1600
Max Homa+2000
Justin Thomas+2200
Collin Morikawa+2200
Xander Schauffele+2500
Jason Day+2800
Tony Finau+2800
Viktor Hovland+3000
Will Zalatoris+3000
Matt Fitzpatrick+3500
Tyrrell Hatton+3500
Sungjae Im+3500
Tom Kim+4000
Jordan Spieth+4000
Keegan Bradley+4000
Cameron Young+4500
Shane Lowry+5000
Si Woo Kim+5000
Keith Mitchell+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Corey Conners+6000
Hideki Matsuyama+6600
Tommy Fleetwood+7000
Sahith Theegala+7500
Chris Kirk+8000
Sam Burns+8000
Alex Noren+9000
Harris English+9000
Justin Rose+9000
Matt Kuchar+9000
Tom Hoge+9000
Adam Scott+9000
Taylor Montgomery+11000
Russell Henley+11000
Kurt Kitayama+11000
Seamus Power+11000
Brian Harman+11000
Billy Horschel+12500
Adam Hadwin+12500
Aaron Wise+15000
Davis Riley+15000
Francesco Molinari+15000
Min Woo Lee+17500
Gary Woodland+17500
J.T. Poston+17500
Webb Simpson+17500
Wyndham Clark+17500
K.H. Lee+17500
Denny McCarthy+20000
Nick Taylor+20000
Thomas Detry+20000
Lucas Herbert+20000
Andrew Putnam+20000
Joel Dahmen+20000
Justin Suh+20000
Brendon Todd+20000
Ryan Fox+20000
Sepp Straka+20000
Jhonattan Vegas+20000
Taylor Moore+25000
Adam Svensson+25000
Ben Griffin+25000
J.J. Spaun+25000
Taylor Pendrith+25000
Maverick McNealy+25000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
S.H. Kim+30000
Emiliano Grillo+30000
Sam Ryder+30000
Danny Willett+30000
Hayden Buckley+30000
Stephan Jaeger+30000
Alex Smalley+30000
Scott Stallings+30000
Luke List+30000
Mackenzie Hughes+30000
Robby Shelton+30000
Brandon Wu+30000
Beau Hossler+30000
Aaron Rai+30000
Ben Martin+30000
Byeong Hun An+35000
Cam Davis+35000
Kevin Kisner+35000
Tyler Duncan+35000
Lee Hodges+35000
Will Gordon+35000
Joseph Bramlett+35000
Garrick Higgo+35000
Doug Ghim+35000
Patrick Rodgers+35000
Martin Laird+35000
Russell Knox+40000
Nick Hardy+40000
David Lipsky+40000
Davis Thompson+40000
Adam Schenk+40000
Ryan Palmer+40000
Adam Long+40000
Matt Wallace+50000
Eric Cole+50000
Patton Kizzire+50000
Matthew NeSmith+50000
Kramer Hickok+50000
Nate Lashley+50000
Dylan Frittelli+50000
Nico Echavarria+50000
Mark Hubbard+60000
Andrew Novak+60000
Aaron Baddeley+60000
Kevin Streelman+60000
Greyson Sigg+60000
Troy Merritt+60000
Stewart Cink+60000
David Lingmerth+60000
Justin Lower+60000
Michael Thompson+60000
Erik Barnes+60000
Peter Malnati+60000
Lucas Glover+60000
Scott Piercy+60000
Callum Tarren+60000
Chesson Hadley+60000
Dylan Wu+60000
Matthias Schwab+70000
Doc Redman+70000
James Hahn+70000
Harrison Endycott+70000
Kevin Tway+70000
Nick Watney+100000
Austin Smotherman+100000
Chad Ramey+100000
Tyson Alexander+100000
Max McGreevy+100000
Kelly Kraft+100000
Jerry Kelly+100000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Chez Reavie+100000
Robert Streb+100000

The PGA TOUR heads to Ponte Vedra Beach for THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) this week. The tournament features 49 of the top 50 players in the FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List and 43 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) features one of the most exhilarating three-hole finishes on TOUR. The first of those three, the 16th hole, is a reachable par-5 with water short right of the green that can lead to anything between an eagle and a double-bogey. Then the island-green 17th hole looms across the water as players hit to one of the most iconic holes on the PGA TOUR. Finally, players must manage the par-4 18th that bends around a lake on the left and has densely packed trees right of the landing area.

Our golf betting experts are ready with their best bets along with their picks for the favorite to back, player to fade, longshot to target and more. Find their picks and analysis below.

Favorite We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Jason Sobel: Sepp Straka
  • Chris Murphy: Russell Henley
  • Matt Vincenzi: Justin Suh
  • Spencer Aguiar: Si Woo Kim

Biggest Bust

  • Jason Sobel: Tony Finau
  • Chris Murphy: Jordan Spieth
  • Matt Vincenzi: Tom Kim
  • Spencer Aguiar: Cameron Young

Contrarian Player to Target

  • Jason Sobel: Keegan Bradley
  • Chris Murphy: Chris Kirk
  • Matt Vincenzi: Shane Lowry
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brendon Todd
The must-have app for golf bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free picks from experts

Live odds for every golfer

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: This doesn’t really count as a “trend,” but last year’s edition of this tournament lasted five days, featured all four seasons and had a wicked dispersion between the two separate draws. Point is, if you’re intently focused on data points from that event, you’re doing it wrong. Throw in the fact that 2020 was canceled due to COVID-19 and we really only have two of these events – 2019 and 2021 – from which we can approach analytically since the move from May to March.

Murphy: We are on another course where we see a lot of volatility in the year-over-year results of players with many top finishes also having their share of missed cuts.

I am mostly ignoring course history this week and instead using a unique crossover from the Wyndham Championship where we have seen a number of players with success at Sedgefield Country Club also find success at Sawgrass. Players like Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim immediately come to mind as winners on both courses, and that correlation will lead to my favorite bet of the week as well.

Aguiar: It is important to note that the move from May to March has done a few noteworthy things to the expectation of how TPC Sawgrass will play. For starters, older iterations of the contest presented us with dormant (but playable) Bermuda that made stopping your irons on these small and quick greens nearly impossible.

None of that suggests that the speed won't still be there on putts, but the softer landing areas will transform this venue in March since we see the property overseeded with a texture much more conducive to shot-shaping. I wouldn’t overly analyze past iterations of this tournament for that reason.

Your Best Bet

Sobel: Max Homa +2200 (FanDuel)

I’ll admit that for too long I looked at Homa simply as a feel-good story – a nice guy who scratched and clawed his way to the PGA TOUR, roasted some swings on social media and won a few tournaments.

He’s proven now, though, that he’s one of the game’s most talented players, a stone-cold assassin when he gets into contention. Homa ranks ninth in SG: Tee to Green, sixth in SG: Approach, eighth in SG: Putting and second in SG: Total. Those are very obviously elite numbers – and he led the field in SG: Approach at the API last week.

If you don’t love this price, here’s a thought: Since Homa has an afternoon tee time in Round 1, and with some of the game’s elite players teeing off in presumably perfect conditions the morning, waiting to play him once there are a few mid-60s scores on the board could result in getting a discounted number.

Murphy: Tom Kim +4000 (PointsBet)

I’ve been following this number on Tom Kim for THE PLAYERS since the start of the year. I almost took it a couple of times, but I’m glad I waited as his play the past few weeks has caused it to drift.

I don’t want to discount the fact that he hasn’t had the best of finishes lately, but I like what I saw from him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this past week. On Sunday he shot 2-under and gained 2.64 shots on the field with his ball striking. He’ll be able to build off of that momentum into this week, where I think his game is a perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass.

Kim is a really accurate player off the tee and excels on approach, especially with his wedges. This is a course that won’t punish him for a being a little shorter off the tee than many of the other top players in the world, and it will allow him to play to his strengths.

While there may be some concern about him making his debut in this event, I think he will benefit greatly from having Rickie Fowler’s former caddie, Joe Skovron, to guide him through his first tournament rounds at THE PLAYERS. Skovron was there with Fowler when he won in 2015, and his experience around this course will be vital for Kim to just play his game.

As I noted above, he also has the correlation to the Wyndham Championship where he won in 2022 by five shots. All of this has Tom Kim lining up as a solid add to the mid-range of my card for this week at Sawgrass.

Vincenzi: Jason Day +3400 (DraftKings):

While he’s yet to win, Jason Day’s 2023 resurgence is undeniable. In his five starts this year, Day’s worst finish has been 18th. The former No. 1 player in the world has been extremely consistent in all facets of his game and has seemingly recaptured his putting stroke, which was one of the major reasons he was so dominant from 2015-2017.

The Australian has played extremely well at TPC Sawgrass throughout his career. He won THE PLAYERS back in 2016 and also has three additional top-10 finishes in the event. Day’s success at TPC Sawgrass resembles his success on other Pete Dye tracks over his career. The more recent success hasn’t been there at Dye designed courses, but going back 75 rounds, Day ranks second behind only Rory McIlroy in Strokes Gained: Total on them.

The comeback for Day has been impressive, but he needs to capitalize on his strong form with a victory. The 35-year-old is seemingly in the best physical shape he’s been in for years, and this sets up perfectly to contend at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Aguiar: Billy Horschel (-120) Over Gary Woodland

The number has moved a little, but anything under -135 still shows value because of the volatility surrounding Gary Woodland. My model found glaring red flags in various sectors of the sheet for the 38-year-old, including ranking 107th on fast greens, 93rd on Pete Dye tracks, 106th in weighted scoring and 115th for scrambling.

Those returns scream, "GO THE OTHER WAY["

Horschel's profile isn't perfect, but as I always say, it is more important to find golfers to oppose than ones to back in the head-to-head market.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.