2020 Arkansas Derby Preview: Best Bets, Odds & TVG Promotion for Oaklawn Park

The 2020 Arkansas Derby takes place on Saturday, May 1 and TVG has a limited-time offer for new customers in the 31 states where horse racing is legal: Bet $300, Lose Nothing.

That's right, if you sign up for a new TVG account, your first win-bet on a horse is 100% risk-free, up to $300. That means if you bet on a horse to win and it doesn't come in first, you get your $300 refunded to put back in play. You can withdraw whatever you turn those free bets into if you so choose.

If you’re new to betting on the ponies and are unsure of the best way to take advantage of this limited-time $300 promotion, our horse racing expert Sean Zerillo has a few one horse that he's eyeing on Saturday in Race 11 (6:29 p.m. ET), plus a few in other races:

Bob Baffert’s No. 1 Charlatan (1-1) in Race 11 (6:29 p.m. ET) is the most likely winner on the day — but I also expect him to go off at odds of 2-5 (40% ROI), 1/5 (20% ROI) or potentially even 1/9 (11% ROI) by post time. I think that 2/5 is just about right, and the lowest that I would play him – but anything less isn’t worth the risk-free investment, in my opinion.

That said, Charlatan is an immensely talented horse, potentially on the level of an American Pharaoh or Justify, and one of the top choices for the 2020 Kentucky Derby before he’s ever run in a stakes race.

[Bet Charlatan now at TVG to get your $300 risk-free bet]

If the odds on Charlatan move too drastically, here are two other horses from Sean worth betting for this promotion:

I consider Baffert’s leading Kentucky Oaks contender, the No. 8 Gamine (Race 7, 4:16 p.m. ET post) as the second most-likely winner on the day. Baffert is 31-for-98 (31%) at the allowance level and five for seven with jockey Martin Garcia in the irons at the current Oaklawn meet. That said, she’s also likely to be around 4/5 by post time, and I’m not sure if that’s enough value to play Gamine to win with one other major contender in there.

Purely based upon expected value, my favorite win bet of the day is the No. 12 By My Standards (7-2) in the Oaklawn Handicap (Race 12, 7:04 p.m. ET post) for trainer Bret Calhoun. By My Standards is four for five lifetime, with his only miss coming in the mud at the 2019 Kentucky Derby, but he was one of the best looking horses in workouts all week leading up to that race, and has substantially improved in his four-year-old season.

He has two bullet workouts on April 11 (1st of 33) and April 25 (1st of 106) leading up to this race, following his three length win in the New Orleans Handicap, and though he needs to improve again he looks to be sitting on the best effort of his life.

Calhoun is 9-for-26 (35%, $4.18 ROI) in graded stakes, and 16 for 48 (33%, $6.53) when deploying jockey Gabriel Saez over the past two years, and in a competitive field I think that you’ll get odds of 5-1 or better by post time.

Using this bet as an example … If No. 12 By My Standards wins at 7-2 odds and you put the full $300 on him, you'd profit $1,050 and be able to withdraw any portion of those winnings, plus your original stake, whenever you want.

Simply put, this is far and away the best new-customer horse racing offer for those of you looking to get into the ponies, but it's only running for a limited time, so be sure to act fast. Good luck!

Full 2020 Arkansas Derby Odds

First Division

Time: 6:29 p.m. ET, NBC

No. 1 Charlatan (1-1)
No. 2 My Friends Beer (20-1)
No. 3 Mo Mosa (30-1)
No. 4 Gouverneur Morris (9-2)
No. 5 Jungle Runner (30-1)
No. 7 Wrecking Crew (20-1)
No. 8 Anneau d'Or (6-1)
No. 9 Winning Impression (15-1)
No. 10 Crypto Clash (20-1)
No. 11 Basin (8-1)

Second Division

Time: 7:43 p.m. ET, NBC

No. 1 Finnick the Fierce (15-1)
No. 2 Saratogian (50-1)
No. 3 Storm the Court (6-1)
No. 4 King Guillermo (3-1)
No. 5 Nadal (5-2)
No. 6 Code Runner (50-1)
No. 7 Silver Prospector (10-1)
No. 8 Fast Enough (12-1)
No. 9 Taishan (15-1)
No. 10 Farmington Road (12-1)
No. 11 Wells Bayou (7-2)

Terms apply. Must be 21+ to wager with TVG. Available to new customers who are in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.