Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - July 28, 2026

Brandon Pfaadt started the season in the bullpen but has since returned to the rotation. He’s been solid since returning, but I remain skeptical. Pfaadt ended last season with a 5.25 ERA and a 5.28 xERA. He was consistently getting hit hard and was a fade every time he stepped on the mound. He’s been better this year, but he still owns a 4.46 SIERA with just a 16.1% strikeout rate. Almost every ball is put in play against him, and he’s still rocking an almost 10% barrel rate. The Pirates offense has been elite versus right handed pitchers all season. This team has also seen Pfaadt very well over his career. In 35 plate appearances, they are hitting .313 with a .329 xBA and .581 xSLG. Those are about as good of numbers as you can ask for. I like Bubba Chandler long term, but he’s still very volatile. Chandler has elite velocity, and his arm talent has never been in question, but his struggles with control remain a problem. He’s walking 12.7% of batters and continues to put himself into difficult spots. Falling behind in counts is never ideal for a young pitcher. Chandler’s 5.00 SIERA is concerning, and he’s also been worse when pitching at PNC Park during his short career. The Diamondbacks offense had a bad first half of the season but has caught fire of late, posting a 119 wRC+ since the All-Star break while striking out just 17.1% of the time during that span. I think both starters get roughed up early. Both bullpens also sit in a rough rest spot after playing an extra innings game last night. The Diamondbacks likely won’t have Loáisiga, Clarke, or Garcia available, while the Pirates likely won’t have Marinaccio, Montgomery, or Ramirez available. PNC Park will also have winds blowing out at 8-10 MPH to right center field tonight. Our model makes this fair total 10.8, so I’ll gladly take it at 9.

3-Game Over Fade Overall: 373-263-26,59% (ROI:12%) Season:42-39-4,52% (ROI:-1%) #TSA