Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, July 28.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
- Chicago White Sox Moneyline
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Picks
Since rejoining the starting rotation in late June, Brandon Pfaadt has won each of his five starts while posting a 2.38 ERA across 27 innings. His recent underlying metrics have also been solid, as he owns a 2.73 xERA and has limited opposing hitters to an expected batting average of just .227 since rejoining the rotation.
Bubba Chandler is also in a steadier stretch of play after a poor start to the season, as he holds an ERA of 3.76 throughout his last seven start, but holds an xFIP of 4.98 and has been hard-hit 40% of the time.
While for the majority of the season the Pirates have had a far superior offense than the Diamondbacks, Arizona's has caught fire of late with a wRC+ of 119 since the All-Star break and has struck out just 17.1% of the time in that span while owning the ninth-highest hard-hit rate. It's still a small sample to put too much stock into, but the Diamondbacks' lineup underachieved in the first half relative to its talent level and could be likely to offer better results the rest of the way.
Should scorching-hot Esmerlyn Valdez miss this matchup (day-to-day with a hand injury), the Pirates lineup will be fairly depleted, as he would join O'Neil Cruz, Konnor Griffin and Spencer Horwitz as notable absentees.
The Diamondbacks bullpen offers an edge over the Pirates unit, as Arizona's relievers have outperformed Pittsburgh's all season long and have worked a 3.50 ERA over the last 30 days with a top-ranked Pitching+ rating of 109 in that span.
Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline -102 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
Yankees vs White Sox Picks
While the Yankees have remained competitive in the win-loss column, their lineup has been mediocre at best for a fairly lengthy stretch and has struggled particularly against left-handed pitching. Since June 1, New York owns a wRC+ of just 89 while striking out at the highest rate in MLB. Those issues have been even more pronounced against lefties, as the Yankees have posted a wRC+ of 84 with a 27% strikeout rate over that span.
Anthony Kay has pitched to an ERA of 3.21 throughout his last six appearances and holds an impressive Pitching+ rating of 107 in that span. While it would be a reach to couple Kay in the same cohort as Gerrit Cole, Cole has not been overly convincing recently in pitching to an ERA of 4.70 throughout his last 44 innings with a 3.95 xERA.
No team in the AL has produced more runs than the White Sox, and they have hit to a wRC+ of 112 versus righties since June 1st.
Given that Cole does not feel entirely formidable right now, this sets up as a good spot to fade a Yankees lineup that has struggled mightily versus lefties of late and back the upstart young White Sox.
Picks: Chicago White Sox Moneyline +110 (FanDuel, Play to +105)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 28
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- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-102)
- Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+110)
