Pirates vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - March 28, 2025

Pirates at Marlins

11:10 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

12-20

4 - 3

Miami Marlins

12-18

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Gillispie			8.65	0-3
M.Keller			3.97	1-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 12-20	-1.5	-1.5+120	o8-116	-144
Marlins 12-18	u7.5	+1.5-142	u8-104	+122

Friday 11:10 p.m.

March 28, 2025

loanDepot parkMiami

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+425

1.06u

Over 8-115

0.5u

MIA +130

0.25u

Bet to +125

B.Reynolds o0.5 HR+650

0.2u

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.87u

O. Cruz ⬆️ 1.5 HRR (-115 @ MGM)(PIT Pirates) THE BAT X 📽️: 2.65 HRR As y'all know I'm so high on this kid this year. He hits the ball so hard and gets himself a nice matchup today. MIA is rolling out Connor Gillespie, who worked in a limited capacity as an RP last season for CLE. He was solid in Spring, but allowed a pair of homers, a double and a triple. His statcast numbers from (only 8 IP) last season are troubling. He was hit hard and barreled often with a low FB velo (92.2) without extension. Not a good recipe against a guy that is in the 99th percentile in hard hit rate and barrel rate. Gillipsie primarily throws FB, CH and CU to left-handed hitters. He likes to elevate the FB, which Cruz excels at hitting. He hit both the FB and CU well last season with a .598 and .643 SLG. He hit the changeup well enough with a .274 average as well. Just really like the matchup here for Cruz.

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-125

0.8u

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+400

0.6u

And then my own little fun longshot

C.Gillispie o1.5 BB-110

0.91u

M.Keller o1.5 Earned Runs-120

PIT -142

M.Keller u5.5 Ks-138

0.72u

Have Keller projected at 4.92 strikeouts. Just not a big enough K guy to have his prop this high against a non-outlier opponent.

M.Keller u5.5 Ks-130

0.77u

4.06% ev pinny line at -166

O.Cruz o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

Oneil vs RHP in 2024: .271 BA, .344 OBP, .189 ISO Oneil vs RHP in ST: .241 BA, ,410 OBP, .311 ISO He mashes righties and I love this matchup for him. Gillispie had a great ST but got rocked in his last outing vs the Mets allowing 8 Hits, 6 ERs, & 2 HRs in 4.1 IP. He’s allowed a high barrel% throughout his short career and throws a lot of 4-seams/cutters to LHB, which Oneil will be able to take advantage of. Despite a mediocre Opening Day for Cruz, I think he bounces back in this matchup

Koerner's Home Run Prop for Friday Night
Sean Koerner•
Mar 28, 2025 UTC
MLB Home Run Props: +17225 Parlay Picks
Grant Neiffer•
Mar 28, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 7-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Marlins' 16 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	15-15	8-8	7-7	0-2	15-13
Pirates	13-19	7-9	6-10	4-8	9-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	21-9	10-6	11-3	1-1	20-8
Pirates	14-16-2	9-6-1	5-10-1	6-6	8-10-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	12-18	8-8	4-10	2-0	10-18
Pirates	12-20	7-9	5-11	5-7	7-13

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 27th	PIT	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 6.5	MIA +127
Mar 25th	NYY	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIA +180
Mar 23rd	@NYM	L 2-10	+1.5 L	O 8	NYM +154
Mar 22nd	@HOU	W 6-5	-	-	-
Mar 22nd	STL	L 2-8	-	-	-

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Ryan Weathers
P
Weathers is out with arm
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Jared Jones
P
Jones is out with elbow
Out
Jared Triolo
IF
Triolo is questionable with back
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
IF
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	86	6	4	1
LC.Ferguson, P	13	1	1	0
LR.Borucki, P	11	1	1	0
RD.Bednar, P	18	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Pham, LF	0-5	1	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-5	0	0	0
3O.Cruz, CF	2-4	2	1	2
4J.Bart, C	1-2	1	0	0
5A.McCutchen, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7E.Rodriguez, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Frazier, 2B	1-3	0	0	1
9I.Kiner-Falefa, SS	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Gillispie, P	85	5	4	3
RT.Phillips, P	23	3	1	0
LA.Veneziano, P	18	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2K.Stowers, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Bride, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4M.Mervis, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5O.Lopez, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
6G.Conine, RF	1-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7L.Hicks, C	0-3	0	0	0
8D.Hill, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9G.Pauley, 3B	1-2	0	0	1
9E.Wagaman, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9E.Wagaman, 3B	0-1	0	0	0