After Joey Chestnut inevitably wins the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, all eyes turn to the diamond where we get baseball all day!
It’s going to be a hot one on the 4th of July, and home runs should be aplenty.
This past Wednesday was a dud, bringing our YTD to 5-7, +1.4u. As a reminder, each home run prop given is tracked as .1u.
Without further ado, let’s get into it! Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:05 PM | |
| 4:10 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Tigers vs. Rangers MLB Player Prop
Riley Greene
Home Run
Kumar Rocker is slated to start Saturday’s bout against the Tigers. While he’s improved year over year, he remains a fade candidate for me.
Rocker’s xERA (4.51) is well above actual (3.83), and the right-hander has really struggled to limit hard contact. His xBA (.262) and hard-hit rate allowed (42.7%) both sit in the bottom quarter among qualified pitchers.
His biggest issue has come against left-handed hitting. The splits are stark — lefties average .275 with a .794 OPS. They have also accounted for 75% of the home runs that Rocker has allowed. For reference, right-handed hitters sit down at .212 and .568, respectively.
Enter Riley Greene.
The former first-round pick has established himself as a superstar in Detroit. After hitting 36 home runs in his breakout campaign last season, Greene has continued to produce despite Detroit’s slow start.
Greene’s underlying metrics remain elite. He owns a 13.6% barrel rate, and his hard-hit rate has climbed to a career-best 51.4%.
Greene ranks in the 80th percentile or better among qualified hitters in nearly every offensive Statcast metric, and he thrives against right-handed pitching. That sets up a favorable matchup on Saturday.
This season, Greene is hitting .301 with an .849 OPS against righties. He has nine home runs, with 32% of all his hits going for extra bases.
Meanwhile, I love backing Greene here against a pitcher like Rocker who has noted struggles against lefties.
Pick: Riley Greene Home Run
Blue Jays vs. Mariners MLB Player Prop
Dominic Canzone
Home Run
Until Shane Bieber shows signs of life, I’ll continue fading him.
The right-hander has battled injuries over the past three seasons, making just 11 starts. But this year, the underlying indicators are especially concerning. His average fastball velocity has dipped to just 92 MPH, and nearly every advanced metric is pointing in the wrong direction.
Across nine innings, Bieber has surrendered six barrels, good for an alarming 18.2% rate. His expected numbers are equally ugly, including a 17.03 xERA, .415 xBA, and .831 xSLG.
Typically a ground-ball pitcher, Bieber has seen that profile disappear this season. Just 27.3% of balls in play against him have been on the ground, while a career-worst 42.4% have been hit in the air.
When hitters are consistently making hard contact and elevating the baseball, home runs follow. That’s been the case for Bieber, who has already allowed four home runs in two starts.
Long gone are the days of Cal Raleigh being a viable option in this spot, but there is another Mariners bat I’m happy to back, and he’s gone quite under the radar: Dominic Canzone.
While he may not be a household name, Canzone’s underlying metrics are elite.
Among qualified hitters, Canzone ranks in the 94th percentile or better in both barrel rate (15.7%) and xSLG (.536). He also leads the Mariners in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and xBA, emerging as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise inconsistent Seattle offense.
He’s been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching. In that split. Canzone is hitting .273 with 11 home runs. Not to mention, 52% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Pick: Dominic Canzone Home Run
Giants vs. Rockies MLB Player Prop
Bryce Eldridge
Home Run
It took a while for Bryce Eldridge to look comfortable at the plate in his rookie season, but the 6-foot-7 lefty has become a force to be reckoned with.
Eldridge finished the month of June hitting .300 with four home runs and an .883 OPS, and that’s with some unlucky outs in the deep, pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park.
Though not yet qualified among hitters, Eldridge’s underlying metrics are impressive, including a 55.8% hard-hit rate and .485 xSLG. While his 11.5% barrel rate is solid, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number jump to 15% by season’s end given his power and frame.
Saturday is a perfect matchup for Eldridge.
The rookie is best away from home and against right-handed pitching. Not only does he get Coors Field, but he also faces the soft-tossing Tomoyuki Sugano.
I often look to fade pitchers that have evaded the negative regression bug. Sugano is atop this list. While he is 8-4 with a 4.80 ERA this season, his xERA is over two runs higher at 7.05.
Sugano ranks in the first percentile among qualified pitchers in xERA, xBA (.310), and barrel rate (14%). He generates little-to-no whiffs and carries a 44.6% hard-hit rate allowed.
Given the inability to limit barrels and his high fly-ball rate, home runs should continue to pour against Sugano.
While Rafael Devers remains the obvious choice here, I like taking the higher-priced Eldridge. His power should be on display in Coors, and in my mind, Sugano is the best-possible matchup for the rookie.
