In August, I began sharing a Kalshi Trade of the Day with my followers.
Typically, these are player prop picks in the Hits + Runs + RBIs market, as Kalshi offers significantly better odds on these than your regular sportsbook.
So far, I’m 10-0 on these trades. Need the receipts? You can follow me on Kalshi, where my username is delightful.cheetah7191.
Let’s get into my Kalshi trade of the day for Monday, August 17.
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Braves vs Twins Kalshi Player Prop
Bailey Ober, Minnesota’s starting pitcher for Monday, is slightly more vulnerable against left-handed hitters.
This season, Ober’s strikeout rate against righties is 22%, but that drops to 12% against lefties. Ober has allowed a .723 OPS to righties but a .764 OPS to lefties.
Ober is also a good fade target in general because of his extreme fly-ball contact profile (career 32% ground-ball rate allowed) and high barrel rates allowed (11% this season).
Suffice it to say, the Braves are not the best matchup for Ober. Atlanta is one of MLB’s hardest-hitting rosters, and they could have six Southpaws in the lineup tonight: Drake Baldin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Mike Yastrzemski, Jim Jarvis, and the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies.
Among that group, I think Harris matches up the best.
Harris has a 43% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers, compared to a 25% against lefties. He’s also performed well against changeups (.341 xwOBA) and four-seam fastballs (.372 xwOBA) this season — Ober’s two favorite pitches.
The Braves should get on base often tonight, and I think Harris takes advantage by stuffing the stat sheet with an extra-base hit or two.
Kalshi Trade of the Day: Michael Harris Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (60c, Kalshi)
