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Angels vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet On A Low-Scoring Affair (May 4)

Angels vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet On A Low-Scoring Affair (May 4) article feature image
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Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Red Sox RHP Garrett Whitlock

  • The Angels suffered a 4-0 to the Red Sox in Tuesday night's series opener at Fenway Park.
  • Both these teams have played a lot of low-scoring games this season. Could we see another?
  • Michael Arinze shares his best bets below.

Angels vs. Red Sox Odds

Angels Odds +123
Red Sox Odds -133
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Angels suffered a 4-0 to the Red Sox in Tuesday night’s series opener at Fenway Park. While the defeat extended the Angels’ losing streak to two games, it also marked a second straight game in which they were held scoreless. That’s surprising when you consider that Los Angeles is tied for second in the league in runs scored (110) and third with a wRC+ value of 118.

However, a recent injury scare to Shohei Ohtani could be more severe than the Angels are letting on. Ohtani exited Sunday’s game against the White Sox in the ninth inning due to tightness in his groin.

The reigning AL MVP is currently mired in a 1-for-12 slump, and while the Angels’ lineup looks more balanced this year, Ohtani remains a central part of their offense. We’ll examine his impact and explain what his recent slump could mean for the total on Wednesday night.

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles will go with left-hander Reid Detmers, who is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA through four starts. However, his 1.10 WHIP suggests that he’s probably pitched better, notwithstanding his high ERA.

A closer looker at the advanced numbers reveals he has a 3.76 xFIP and a 4.15 xERA. While his 1.56 HR/9 ratio is a concern, he’s allowed just one home run in his last 13 1/3 innings of work.

Detmers will be up against a Boston lineup with just one home run against left-handers this season. Overall, the Red Sox offense has struggled as FanGraphs ranks them 28th with a wRC+ value of 81. That’s largely why Boston is in fourth place at 10-14 and eight games out of first place in the AL East.

In contrast, despite their back-to-back losses, the Angels remain atop the AL West at 15-10. However, Los Angeles will want to get Ohtani going again to avoid extending this losing streak. During his recent slump, Los Angeles is 1-3, and one has to wonder if his struggles are starting to permeate through the rest of the lineup.

Boston Red Sox

After an impressive run in the bullpen, Garrett Whitlock will make his third straight start for Boston.

The Red Sox acquired Whitlock after the Yankees failed to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft. In 2019, Whitlock was the 16th-ranked prospect in the Yankees’ organization after registering a 3.07 ERA in 70.1 innings. However, elbow injuries led to Tommy John surgery, and the Yankees opted not to add him to their 40-man roster.

Given his potential, Boston wasted little time in swooping to land the 25-year-old and bring him up the coast to New England.

Whitlock made his major-league debut in 2021, pitching 73 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, finishing 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. This season, he’s 1-1 with a 0.54 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work. While the Red Sox always viewed him as a long-term starter, the initial plan was to take things slowly with the right-hander due to his recent history of elbow problems.

However, Whitlock was thrust into the rotation after Rich Hill landed on the bereavement list.

There’s no question that the Red Sox think highly of Whitlock as they signed him to a four-year extension worth $18.75 million at the start of the season. He has a plus-fastball that averages 96 mph and does a tremendous job throwing strikes. Whitlock has a first-pitch strike rate of 67.2% and an elite called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%) of 34.6%.

To put it mildly, he does an excellent job of missing bats. And when hitters do make contact, they have a barrel rate of 2.5% on the year. Even with Whitlock not projected to pitch that deep in the game, the Red Sox bullpen is well-rested as no reliever has thrown more than 17 pitches in their last three outings.


Angels-Red Sox Pick

Both starters could have the edge early on, given they’ve yet to face any of the hitters in the opposing lineup. Whitlock has been stellar since stepping foot on a major league mound, and I’m encouraged by the underlying positive regression that could unfold for Detmers.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Angels handle Ohtani in the short term. While they’ve already announced that he’ll miss his next start due to the groin injury, you have to wonder if it’s also affecting him at the plate. There’s no question Ohtani plays a massive role in the Angels offense when you consider that the total is 5-1 to the under in his last six contests when he doesn’t have a multi-hit game.

Furthermore, scoring is down across the board in the majors as under bettors are 194-147-13 for 30.62 units this season (per Action Labs):

If you’re looking for a team that fits the profile for unders, look no further than the Red Sox — they’re a league-best 17-6-1 to the under for 9.57 units. And despite Los Angeles ranking second in runs scored, it’s still 14-10-1 (+2.68 units) to the under on the season.

We should see another low-scoring game at Fenway Park, where the temperature is expected to be below 50 degrees, with the wind blowing in from the left-center field. After shopping around, I found that WynnBET has the best price on the board for the under 8.5 at +100 odds as of writing.

I would play this number up to -115.

Pick: Half-unit on under 8.5 (+100)

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