Monday Sharp Report: Pro Players Getting Down on 3 Sides, 1 Total
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA Playoffs and Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing, but seasoned wiseguys remain fixated on MLB. The long season provides endless opportunities for sharps to get down on soft lines and pad their bankroll. One month down, five more to go!
After analyzing Monday’s 11-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 7:10 and 8:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:45 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (-101) at Washington Nationals
7:05 p.m. ET
The Pirates (17-11, +4.73 units) have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the MLB season so far. But the public still wants nothing to do with them. Pittsburgh is getting only 39% of bets but nearly half the dollars, indicating smart money in their favor. The line has also moved big toward Pittsburgh (+110 to -101). Why would the oddsmakers drop the Pirates payout if the majority of bets are on Washington? Because sharps got down on the Buccos, creating liability. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Pirates +105, causing the entire market to drop the line toward the road dog.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (+108)
7:10 p.m. ET
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: wiseguys are on the Reds. They’re a divisional dog at home with a high total, which is a profitable spot historically. In addition, Cincy is getting only 30% of bets, yet we’re seeing a sharp line freeze and reverse line movement across the market. Milwaukee (70% of bets) opened at -119. Normally a team getting 70% would move from -119 to -125 or -130. Instead, the line has fallen to -117, indicating sharp Cincy liability. The big dogs at Pinnacle hit Cincy +110 and then SIA joined the Big Red Machine party at +100.
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins (-117)
8:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are all over the Twinkies tonight. Minnesota opened as a slight -105 dog and has moved all the way to -117. This is significant because they’re getting only 34% of bets, a sign of massive reverse line movement. Goodfellas all across the market have been getting down hard on Minnesota, first at Pinnacle (-109), then Carib (-115) and SIA (-110). The Twins also enjoy one of the sharpest bets vs. dollars discrepancies of the day (34% bets, 59% dollars), another sign that smart money is on their side.
New York Yankees – Houston Astros Under 8.5
8:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split on this total. With Sonny Gray (7.71 ERA) on the mound and two stacked lineups going head-to-head, more than 75% of bets are on the Over. However, 70% of dollars are on the Under. This heavy Under smart money has caused the total to fall from 9 to 8.5. The Under is also juiced up to -120, indicating the next move is likely to be down further to 8. We’ve also seen a massive amount of bet signals on the Under, highlighted by moves at Pinnacle, Sportsbook, Greek, Buckeye and CRIS. What’s interesting: even though the total fell from 9 to 8.5, sharps kept hitting Under 8.5, indicating supreme wiseguy confidence.
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Pictured: New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez (front) celebrates with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton after hitting a two-run home run