Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Friday, September 11.
MLB Player Props Today
- Riley Greene Home Run (16c, Polymarket)
- Julio Rodriguez Home Run (22c, Kalshi)
- Zack Gelof Home Run (15c, Polymarket)
Rockies vs Tigers Player Prop
Although it’s been a tumultuous season for the Tigers, Riley Greene appears to be finishing the 2026 campaign on a strong note. The three-time All-Star missed almost all of August with a hamstring injury, but has been crushing the baseball since returning to action earlier this month.
Through 35 plate appearances in September, Greene is hitting .313 with a remarkable 1.090 OPS. Though it's a small sample, the three-time All-Star has notched seven extra-base hits during that span, including three home runs. Greene now has 19 bombs on the year and leads the team with a .469 SLG and .835 OPS.
In addition, since rejoining the Detroit lineup on September 1st, eight of Greene’s 23 batted balls have recorded exit velocities over 100mph, while six of the last 16 batted balls have traveled over 370 ft.
Although the 25-year-old won’t be matching the 36 homers he launched a season ago, a third consecutive season with 20 home runs seems inevitable.
Despite being one of just three teams in the American League with a positive run differential, the Tigers will very likely miss the playoffs, although they have a microscopic chance at making the postseason with just 16 games remaining.
The Rockies, on the other hand, have seemingly been eliminated since before the All-Star break.
After losing four straight, including last night’s 10-3 meltdown at Yankee Stadium, Colorado and its abysmal pitching staff now travel to face Detroit and will be starting inexperienced right-hander Mason Adams for the fourth time this season.
The 26-year-old Adams was underwhelming through his first three Major League outings, and the long ball could be an issue for the 26-year-old going forward. Adams surrendered a homer in each of his first two starts before conceding a pair of them in a loss to St. Louis earlier in the week.
In that start against the Cardinals, Adams gave up 11 hard hits (over 95 mph) in 4 2/3 innings of work. Although it’s a small sample size, that brings his hard-hit rate up to 61.1% for the season, which is a number that will not lead to success in the majors.
Pick: Riley Greene Home Run (16c, Polymarket)
Mariners vs A's Player Prop
Sutter Health Park has been a paradise for hitters since the Athletics started playing there in 2025. Now, as we approach mid-September, and with temperatures slowly cooling across the country, baseball bettors must appreciate the final few games of the 2026 campaign that are being played in Sacramento.
Once again, the A’s will play host to the most favorable hitting environment of the evening, as the weather in Sacramento calls for high 80’s and warm winds blowing out. In addition, the Athletics are trotting out left-hander Jeffrey Springs, one of the most volatile pitchers in the game.
Although Springs has pitched fairly well on the road this season, he has been demolished during home games. The 33-year-old owns a 7.18 ERA at home in 2026 and has surrendered 21 home runs in just 67 2/3 innings. Opponents are slugging .572 against him during those contests.
Springs uses his four-seam fastball 44% of the time, and it has been absolutely torched; the pitch holds a -15 run value and has a whiff rate of just 16%.
Opponents are slugging .517 against the fastball, while also slugging .667 against the slider this season. Although he only uses the slider 23% of the time, that pitch has a run value of -8.
The visiting Mariners have a handful of sluggers who are candidates to mash against a southpaw, but Julio Rodriguez has the best chance of them all to tag Springs tonight. Although it’s been a mostly uninspiring season for Rodriguez, the 25-year-old reached 20 home runs for a fifth season in a row and is still posting a stellar hard-hit rate (44.3%) despite hitting just .239 for the year.
Rodriguez has gone deep eight times against left-handed pitching in 2026, while the three-time All-Star has tallied 37 of his 133 career homers off of southpaws.
Last night, Rodriguez launched a 410-foot round-tripper for his first home run of the month. In addition, nine of his past 10 batted balls have registered exit velocities over 95 mph, while six of them were ripped over 100mph. Rodriguez can get hot in a hurry, so hopefully this is a sign of a strong finish for Seattle’s franchise player.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run (22c, Kalshi)
Mariners vs A's Player Prop
We are staying out in California and taking advantage of the weather with our last pick of the evening. Sutter Health Park has played host to 203 home runs so far in 2026, the third-most in MLB, and tonight it seems like we could very well add to that total.
For the struggling Athletics, Zack Gelof has been a revelation in 2026. After a disappointing 2025 campaign, the 26-year-old has been excellent hitting in the heart of the order this season, especially with star players Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom on the shelf.
Gelof has launched 17 home runs this season, which is tied for his career-high, while posting a respectable .775 OPS along the way. He has been especially productive so far in September, as Gelof owns a .595 SLG over his last 40 plate appearances and has gone deep three times during that span.
The home/road splits for Gelof are particularly polarizing, as it has been abundantly clear the Athletics’ third baseman loves playing in Sacramento. Although he is hitting just .209 on the road, Gelof sports a .286 batting average at home to go along with a .519 SLG and 11 of those 17 home runs.
His opponent tonight, right-hander George Kirby, has been susceptible to the long ball when pitching on the road, as he has conceded 10 home runs in just 65.2 innings away from T-Mobile Park.
The 28-year-old was knocked around in his last outing away from home, as the Red Sox took him deep twice at Fenway Park on August 30th. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting Kirby’s worst outing of the season came on the road, as the Rangers racked up seven runs in just four innings on July 27th. The four home runs allowed by Kirby in that start were tied for the most he has allowed in any start during his five-year career.
Gelof is 5-for-10 against Kirby with a pair of home runs for his career. He has an excellent chance to expand on those numbers tonight in Sacramento.
Pick: Zack Gelof Home Run (15c, Polymarket)
