Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today's slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, September 11.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 K (+102)
- Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5 Runs (-122)
- San Francisco Giants ML (+124)
Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
Matthew Liberatore has a career-high 23.7% strikeout rate this season, but he has a 28.2% rate since June 30! Liberatore is producing strikeouts and limiting walks at an excellent rate in this span. However, he continues to struggle due to hard contact.
Nevertheless, the Chicago White Sox offer a solid spot to bet on Liberatore's strikeout line. His line is set at 5.5, but he has crossed this mark in 8 of his past 12 starts. Liberatore has pitched at least five innings in 9 of these 12 starts and could continue his trends of bulky outings and strikeouts.
The White Sox have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (24.8%). They have the sixth-highest rate in the past two weeks (25.1%) and are performing as a below-average offense (87 wRC+).
Liberatore has a lower strikeout rate at home (20.1%) than on the road (27.5%), yet he has produced 16 total Ks in his past two home starts combined. Today's line should be reasonable to cross early in his start.
Pick: Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 K (+102)
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Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Pick
The Mariners and Athletics just completed a four-game series last weekend and face off again this weekend in Sacramento. Despite Seattle's home park favoring pitchers, these two teams combined for over 9.5 runs in two of the four games.
Although they went under, with eight total runs, in the last start between Jeffrey Springs and George Kirby, they should hit the over today. The Athletics' park is the league's most hitter-friendly stadium, with a 112 park factor in 2026. Also, Jeffrey Springs is much worse while pitching there than on the road.
Springs at home: 7.18 ERA, .392 wOBA allowed, 1.61 WHIP, 6.56 FIP, 4.80 xFIP
Meanwhile, George Kirby is a much worse pitcher on the road.
Kirby away: 5.48 ERA, .389 wOBA allowed, 1.63 WHIP, 4.33 FIP, 4.21 xFIP
Both the Mariners (105 wRC+) and Athletics (103 wRC+) are above-average offenses in the past 30 days. Also, given that both teams have faced today's opposing pitchers within the past week, hitters have an extra advantage.
The Mariners have a largely available bullpen, but their star closer Andres Munoz has thrown 41 pitches in the past two games, with three outings in the past five games. He is likely unavailable today, giving the over an added chance of success.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (-122)
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Pick
Robbie Ray has one of the fakest ERAs in baseball this season. His 3.39 is backed by a 4.81 xERA, 4.90 xFIP, and 4.98 SIERA. He is a horrible but lucky pitcher. Furthermore, he has been worse since joining the Padres, and his last start was his shortest of the season (2 1/3 IP).
On the opposing mound, Giants starter Anthony Molina is new but impressive since joining the team. He has a 1.88 ERA, backed by a 3.24 xERA, 3.39 xFIP, and 3.36 SIERA in 14 1/3 IP. The sample is small, but Molina has made substantive changes to indicate somewhat sustainable improvement.
Molina will likely not sustain a sub-2.00 ERA, but his increased fastball and flyball rates could help him succeed in San Francisco's pitcher-friendly home park. There are still a lot of unknowns regarding Molina, who was a reliever before joining the Giants, but his success in the minors and youth make him an interesting SP to bet on.
The Padres are much better against RHP (100 wRC+) than the Giants are against LHP (88 wRC+). However, the Giants' offense (105 wRC+) is much better than the Padres' (95 wRC+) in the past two weeks. At plus-money, it is worth taking the Giants against their old teammate Robbie Ray.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (+124)
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
- Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 K (+102)
- Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5 Runs (-122)
- San Francisco Giants ML (+124)
